Texas Summer 2017

[Texas Snowman]

Well, that was your typical overnight period for late July here in North Texas.

I think I can count on one hand how many times I've seen an afternoon high temp of 100 degrees replaced by 2.69 inches of late evening and overnight rain (at the NTRA recording site west of Denison).

[Ntxw]

DFW airport picked up 1.34" overnight to bring the July total to 4.12". That is pretty good, that almost is as wet as May typically is, also considering it is wetter than this past May.

[Portastorm]

0.65 here at the Weatherdude Center. 79 degrees at 3:30pm in July. Nice change over the past...MONTH.

Glad you got some rain. Most of us in the county got diddly-squat.

Maybe today will be different.

[bubba hotep]

GFS 00z returns the heat in the longer range while the 06z keeps things "pleasant" for early August. GEFS doesn't really clear anything up. This is always an issue when the WPAC gets active and the models struggle with the downstream impacts.

[weatherdude1108]

0.65 here at the Weatherdude Center. 79 degrees at 3:30pm in July. Nice change over the past...MONTH.

Glad you got some rain. Most of us in the county got diddly-squat.

Maybe today will be different.

Thanks. It's been a LONG time for us since we got at least a half inch. It got kind of hairy there for a while with the lightning. It would rain, then kind of stop, then suddenly flashes of lightning, with loud KABOOMBS, then pouring rain again. It literally sounded (based on the thunder) like the lightning struck right outside my front door a few times!
The dog did not appreciate the thunder much, to say the least. But yeah, I'm rooting for you.

The tone of the EWX this morning is different from the last several discussions. Chat of a pattern change this weekend. Can't come soon enough! I was getting stir-crazy depressed with these endless dog day doldrums, until the break yesterday.

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
645 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/
With an added influx of moisture from the north and east over the
past 24-36 hours, low clouds mainly in the 1500-2500 ft range have
returned to the I-35 corridor. Satellite low cloud products were of
limited help due to a high amount of cirrostratus drifting south from
the North-Central TX convection. Quick look out the window indicates
most of the clouds are of a fractus variety, suggesting a quick
burn-off after sunrise. Mid-level moisture will continue to filter
southward from North-Central TX today, so will go ahead with more low
cigs for daybreak Tuesday.

More convection is expected for this afternoon, and gusty outflows
could impact the AUS terminal. Currently do not expect the outflows
to expand south into the San Antonio area as they did Sunday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 407 AM CDT Mon Jul 24 2017/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...

Elevated temperatures in the upper 90s and low 100s will continue to
combine with moderate humidity levels for heat index values ranging
from 104-108F both today and tomorrow. In addition, isolated to
perhaps scattered showers/storms will be probable across portions of
the Hill Country and I-35 corridor areas (north of Comal) eastward to
Lee County this morning and afternoon.

The mid to upper-level low over the northern Gulf is less
discernible this morning on water vapor imagery channels vs.
yesterday. However, a large thunderstorm complex was able to develop
due to a secondary shortwave trough over the Red River overnight on
the periphery of the H5 ridge centered over NM/CO. The initial
complex continues to dissipate but it has sent a rather large outflow
boundary southward that stretches from near San Angelo to Waco to
Lufkin, TX. This outflow is helping regenerate isolated showers
north of the region early this morning. Recent hi-res guidance is
indicating such isolated to scattered showers and a few storms could
be triggered over portions of the Hill Country to northern I-35
corridor areas this morning and through the afternoon due to this
stronger low-level convergence. Any stronger storm that forms will be
able to produce strong winds of 40-50 mph given DCAPE values >1300
J/Kg this afternoon. Activity is not expected to make it as far
south as yesterday. All activity will decrease through early evening
tonight.

For most of the region that will not receive rain, heat index values
will once again reach upwards of 104-108F for a few hours this
afternoon. Will continue to highlight this hazard with a special
weather statement and in the hazardous weather outlook.

Regarding Tuesday, the H5 ridge is expected to strengthen over north
Texas and this should limit shower activity to only the extreme far
east coastal plains due to sea-breeze activity. Another day of
104-108F heat indices is also expected.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Sunday)...

Middle to late-week will remain well above normal temperature-wise
as upper 90s in the Hill Country and low to even sporadic mid 100s
occur across the region. A heat advisory may be needed for portions
of the area Thursday and Friday. A pattern shift is becoming more
likely over the weekend into early next week as a weak boundary
shifts through the region and potentially increasing rainfall
chances.

Models are in slight disagreement on the strength of the H5 ridge
through the mid- to late-week as the ECMWF indicates a slightly
stronger inverted trough on the south side of the ridge while the
GFS is precip free and reflects a shallower shortwave trough
inflection. While some sea-breeze activity will be possible each day,
limited to no rain is expected for a vast majority of the region. As
moisture soil moisture levels continue to drop, temperatures should
be able to inch up as well with 98-105F being likely Thursday and
Friday.

Going into the weekend, GFS/ECMWF diverge on timing of a stronger
longwave trough over the eastern CONUS that will result in the
pattern change for the region. Deeper northerly flow looks to occur
with the backdoor front over the weekend. However, no cooler air is
behind the boundary and elevated temperatures look to continue. The
only positive of this boundary will be the extra convergence it may
provide to aid in more scattered shower generation. Have introduced
low-end rain chances for portions of the weekend and will need to
refine these values as details of the boundary evolve through the
week.

[Portastorm]

Yeah, I've read those discussions and have seen the models. Like Ntxw said earlier though it's kinda hard to believe only because a "pattern change" in late July or early August in Texas is unusual. But who knows ... hope springs eternal, right?!

Glad you folks in NTX are getting the wet stuff.

[Tireman4]

:uarrow:

Yeah, I've read those discussions and have seen the models. Like Ntxw said earlier though it's kinda hard to believe only because a "pattern change" in late July or early August in Texas is unusual. But who knows ... hope springs eternal, right?!

Glad you folks in NTX are getting the wet stuff.

Well, Porta....you know...13 years ago this August ( I know because I got married that Saturday.. ) there was a front that came down and visited us in August....


August 2004 IAH:


13 64 - 2004

14 65 - 2004

15 61 - 2004

16 63 - 2004


http://www.weather.gov/hgx/climate_iah_normals_aug

[bubba hotep]

For DFW, it looks like Thursday & Friday could be the warmest days so far this summer. The caveat is that timing of the front and any potential convection could keep things in check on Friday. Then after that, it looks like mid-90s for the 1st week in August with some chances at rain. If that actually verifies then we will be 1/4 of the way through the worst month with almost nice wx lol

[Ntxw]

I'm surprised no one has made a fall thread yet. With just one more meteorological summer month left after this week, football and fall is just around the corner . Days are getting shorter y'all!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I can complain too much about this summer with rain chances virtually every day so far here in Houston. WE gotta alot of football left though! Football comes around then i can get excited about predicting winter and being completely wrong with my predictions.

With that said, i feel like SE Texas is due for a snowstorm this winter. Its been about 7 years!

[South Texas Storms]

The 12z Euro is the best run I've seen in quite some time. It's showing a front stalling across central Texas early next week bringing 2-4 inches of rain in SA and Austin. Boy it sure would be nice if that verified.

[weatherdude1108]

Looking at some more potential heat relief.
Heat is adding fuel to these little popups. Hoping we get round 2 today! San Antonio may miss out again.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
303 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2017

TXZ173-242045-
Williamson TX-
303 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WILLIAMSON COUNTY
UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 302 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Leander, or near Cedar Park, moving south at 10 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Round Rock, Cedar Park, Georgetown, Anderson Mill, Leander, Brushy
Creek and Jollyville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

[weatherdude1108]

Wow! Fast developer.

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
TXC453-491-242100-
/O.NEW.KEWX.SV.W.0179.170724T2016Z-170724T2100Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
316 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2017

The National Weather Service in Austin San Antonio has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
Southwestern Williamson County in south central Texas...
Northwestern Travis County in south central Texas...

* Until 400 PM CDT

* At 316 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Cedar Park,
moving southwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
to roofs, siding, and trees.

* Locations impacted include...
Austin, Round Rock, Cedar Park, Anderson Mill, Leander, Lakeway,
Lago Vista, Bee Cave, The Hills, Barton Creek, Hudson Bend,
Mansfield Dam, Jonestown, Briarcliff, Brushy Creek, Jollyville and
Lost Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3063 9776 3054 9768 3025 9787 3042 9813
3046 9810 3049 9810 3050 9811 3064 9804
3067 9802
TIME...MOT...LOC 2016Z 038DEG 13KT 3054 9782

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

HAMPSHIRE

[Portastorm]

Oh my freakin' gawd ... it happened again. Menacing-looking storm enters Travis County, slowly sinks south, belches out outflow boundary ... starts to quickly dissipate. Once again, the NW third of the county got a nice storm and rain ... the rest of us got a rock.

Think it's time I switch to decaf.

[weatherdude1108]

Oh my freakin' gawd ... it happened again. Menacing-looking storm enters Travis County, slowly sinks south, belches out outflow boundary ... starts to quickly dissipate. Once again, the NW third of the county got a nice storm and rain ... the rest of us got a rock.

Think it's time I switch to decaf.

I noticed that. I'm at work. We got nothing on the north part of 35 of Travis County. Mrs. Weatherdude1108 said it was raining with a lot of thunder up there. It's like it dies under its own energy. Sorry about that.
One of these days.

I went a long time where we didn't get anything and everyone else did. Be nice if these were more widespread and persistent. I'm just grateful for any relief this time of year.

[aggiecutter]

Currently, a blistering 87 degrees in Texarkana(at 4:00pm). Highs in the mid-90's til the end of the week. Then, upper 80's for highs the beginning of next week. Texarkana still has not gone above 95 for the summer.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... XZlPYgrKUn

[Portastorm]

Oh my freakin' gawd ... it happened again. Menacing-looking storm enters Travis County, slowly sinks south, belches out outflow boundary ... starts to quickly dissipate. Once again, the NW third of the county got a nice storm and rain ... the rest of us got a rock.

Think it's time I switch to decaf.

I noticed that. I'm at work. We got nothing on the north part of 35 of Travis County. Mrs. Weatherdude1108 said it was raining with a lot of thunder up there. It's like it dies under its own energy. Sorry about that.
One of these days.

I went a long time where we didn't get anything and everyone else did. Be nice if these were more widespread and persistent. I'm just grateful for any relief this time of year.

Reminds me of the old ABC Wide World of Sports script when they said: "the thrill of victory, and the agony of defeat."

Let's hope that 12z Euro is on to something.

[JDawg512]

[weatherdude1108]

:hmm:

I feel your pain.

[weatherdude1108]

Not to rub it in, but from a strictly objective reporting standpoint, I have received 1.25" since yesterday in my yard, and it has been light raining for the better part of a couple hours.

And from an emotional standpoint, I cannot be more thankful, considering that we were supposed to be in the 100-103-plus degree blast furnace temperatures for the foreseeable future.

This is absolutely PERFECT right before I leave on Wednesday to go to California for 10 days. This is one reason I love the weather. Even in predicable July Texas weather, it can be unpredictable. .

The silver lining is that it has cooled it off. Instead of 103 driving home, it was 88. It is 79 now. Rooting for my local cohorts to get their fair share!