2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[HURRICANELONNY]

I was reading Bob Henson on weatherunderground about N. Pacific so active and Atlantic so quiet. The topic on the MJO was interesting. The models are hinting of a more favorable MJO in August. Have to see how it pans out.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of increased thunderstorm activity near the Equator that moves around the globe in 30 - 60 days, and which can increase the odds of tropical cyclone formation when it is strong and located in the proper location, is currently weak and in an unfavorable location, and will not favor tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic over the coming week. However, the MJO is predicted to intensify in August, as it moves into a location that would be more supportive of tropical cyclones downstream in the Atlantic.

[Ntxw]

Lets try to keep the discussion about model runs, I know its a little slow since not much is on them yet. Basin conditions should go in indicators thread.

[Bocadude85]

Same here. Looks like EPAC is taking from the Atlantic, and that ULL in the Atlantic seems permanent. Both models, the GFS and ECMWF, seem to be showing higher than normal pressure through their entire run.

It's July... not September. You guys have been around these boards long enough to know that you don't typically see much activity in July. A ULL is not a permanent feature, perhaps the Atlantic has seen multiple ULL this year but none of them are permanent features.

True, but models are not budging on showing unfavorable conditions even as we get toward mid-August in the runs. Models are usually wrong in the long range, but every model seems to be showing this. Even 2004, which did not begin until late July had a hurricane by August 3rd. All we have had so far is very weak storms. That ULL or ULLs have been present in the general area of the central Atlantic to Bahamas since late June I believe. Put all this together with the fact that it seems like the East Pacific will not slow down any time soon, and it could have a drastic negative impact on the Atlantic this season. The SST config is great, but that alone is not going to help the Atlantic. I am most likely wrong, but just going by models (short and long range) it seems awfully quiet. Could an active season be in the works, sure it could be. However, it seems the lid is slow to come off on the Atlantic. I am not saying it will not come off, but the later it does come off the less activity we will see overall.


Anyone know any favorable things that scream active season besides the SST config? I am not being a smart butt. I just want to know I have only seen the professionals point this out, but so many negatives besides that. Also, if the mods think this belongs in the Indicators thread please move it.

What models are you referring to that are showing unfavorable conditions in the Atlantic in mid August? The CFS is showing conditions becoming quite favorable in the Atlantic starting about the 2nd week of August. Furthermore the EPAC was even more active last July and yet the Atlantic still ended up being active. What are all of the negatives? Shear is at or below normal, sst's are above normal, SAL has been below normal...I see a lot more positives then negatives.

[AutoPenalti]

It's July.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS (MU) going with MDR development again. Looks even more bullish.

[Weather150]

18z GFS showing very light SAL and low wind shear for the potential system while in the Central Atlantic, let's see how shear fares as it heads further west on the run.

[gatorcane]

Deep MDR development on the 18Z GFS:

[RL3AO]

The summary of this thread in the past month.

Models show a tropical storm at day 14: "This model is a joke. Always spinning up storms."

Models don't show a tropical storm at day 14: "Whats wrong with the Atlantic? Is this 2013 all over again?"

[Weather150]

The summary of this thread in the past month.

Models show a tropical storm at day 14: "This model is a joke. Always spinning up storms."

Models don't show a tropical storm at day 14: "Whats wrong with the Atlantic? Is this 2013 all over again?"

Summed it up nicely.

[HurricaneBelle]

The summary of this thread in the past month.

Models show a tropical storm at day 14: "This model is a joke. Always spinning up storms."

Models don't show a tropical storm at day 14: "Whats wrong with the Atlantic? Is this 2013 all over again?"

Anyone studying manic depression would have a field day reading these boards.

[WeatherEmperor]

I wonder if the lid will actually come off.

Same here. Looks like EPAC is taking from the Atlantic, and that ULL in the Atlantic seems permanent. Both models, the GFS and ECMWF, seem to be showing higher than normal pressure through their entire run.

Please head on over to the 2017 indicators thread. I posted some information there for you.

[tarheelprogrammer]

It's July... not September. You guys have been around these boards long enough to know that you don't typically see much activity in July. A ULL is not a permanent feature, perhaps the Atlantic has seen multiple ULL this year but none of them are permanent features.

True, but models are not budging on showing unfavorable conditions even as we get toward mid-August in the runs. Models are usually wrong in the long range, but every model seems to be showing this. Even 2004, which did not begin until late July had a hurricane by August 3rd. All we have had so far is very weak storms. That ULL or ULLs have been present in the general area of the central Atlantic to Bahamas since late June I believe. Put all this together with the fact that it seems like the East Pacific will not slow down any time soon, and it could have a drastic negative impact on the Atlantic this season. The SST config is great, but that alone is not going to help the Atlantic. I am most likely wrong, but just going by models (short and long range) it seems awfully quiet. Could an active season be in the works, sure it could be. However, it seems the lid is slow to come off on the Atlantic. I am not saying it will not come off, but the later it does come off the less activity we will see overall.


Anyone know any favorable things that scream active season besides the SST config? I am not being a smart butt. I just want to know I have only seen the professionals point this out, but so many negatives besides that. Also, if the mods think this belongs in the Indicators thread please move it.

What models are you referring to that are showing unfavorable conditions in the Atlantic in mid August? The CFS is showing conditions becoming quite favorable in the Atlantic starting about the 2nd week of August. Furthermore the EPAC was even more active last July and yet the Atlantic still ended up being active. What are all of the negatives? Shear is at or below normal, sst's are above normal, SAL has been below normal...I see a lot more positives then negatives.

You are right in that last season was active, however, before Matthew ACE was well below normal. One storm generated a ton of the ACE. Being picky I know lol.

[gatorcane]

Wow this is the strongest signal yet from the GEFS on development of the wave rolling off Africa. Development starts in 4-5 days, 192 hour graphic below:

[Hypercane_Kyle]

18z GFS was also much stronger with the EPAC storm...

[Hammy]

Is anyone else already getting skeptical of the upgrade given the Euro still shows nothing?

[TheStormExpert]

Is anyone else already getting skeptical of the upgrade given the Euro still shows nothing?

Yes, this is likely Déjà vu from 2-3 weeks ago all over again.

[AutoPenalti]

Euro doesn't show anything, GFS still up to its old tricks.

Siding with the Euro on this one.

[gatorcane]

Could be another GFS phantom but it is not like the ECMWF has been stellar this season with MDR development and even the ECMWF had some development with yesterday's runs. The new GFS has been quite conservative in the Atlantic MDR so far. Good test for both the upgraded GFS and ECMWF.

[Weather150]

The upgraded GFS has been pretty conservative thus far, so it will really indeed be a test for it. Currently, I am cautious because of Euro not showing anything, but we are getting close to that time of year.

[Hammy]

Could be another GFS phantom but it is not like the ECMWF has been stellar this season with MDR development and even the ECMWF had some development with yesterday's runs. The new GFS has been quite conservative in the Atlantic MDR so far. Good test for both the upgraded GFS and ECMWF.

Thinking we could end up with only a few days of model notice before something forms next time?