WPAC: NORU - Low

[euro6208]

Latest EURO and GFS wants to erase Iwo To and ChiChiJima from the map.

[shah83]

18z GFZ run is impressive, in that Noru literally heads to Ulaan Baatarr in Mongolia. Would be a fairly serious flood threat for all of NE Asia, never mind the landfall areas...

[1900hurricane]

Good looking microwave pass. Just needs to keep the dry air out and it's all systems go.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNING NR 15//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 07W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 162 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A COMPACT CORE OF DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION. A SMALL EYE FEATURE WHICH HAS REPEATEDLY APPEARED AND
FILLED IS NO LONGER PRESENT. A 240502Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS
REVEALS THE 75 NM DIAMETER CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION NEARLY
SURROUNDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS IMAGERY SUPPORTS
THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
DECREASED TO 80 KNOTS, WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES SLIGHTLY REDUCED DUE TO
THE LOSS OF THE EYE FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WINDS OVER NORU
HAVE INCREASED, RESULTING IN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) VALUES, CURRENTLY AT 20 KNOTS. THIS VWS IS BEING
PARTIALLY OFFSET BY ROBUST OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS). TY 07W IS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 07W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AFTER TAU 24, RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM IN COMBINATION WITH POSSIBLE BINARY ACTION WITH TS 09W,
RESULTING IN A TURN TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST THROUGH TAU 72, AT
WHICH POINT A STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL BECOME THE
PREDOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. THE UNFAVORABLE VWS IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, LIMITING POTENTIAL INTENSIFICATION.
THE FORECAST PEAKS AT TAU 36 AS IMPROVING VWS AND SLOWING FORWARD
MOTION PROVIDE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
AFTER TAU 36 DUE TO COOLER SSTS AND STRONGER VWS. DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND SPEED OF THE NORTHERLY TURN.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TY 07W IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING IN A CYCLONIC LOOP, AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN, RESULTING IN ANOTHER TURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. AS TY 07W BEGINS TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD, IT
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS TO ENTRAIN DRY MID-
LEVEL AIR, AND ENCOUNTERS STRONGER VWS VALUES, HOWEVER THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. THE
HWRF MODEL IS CALLING FOR SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING, DOWN TO 35 KNOTS BY
TAU 96. HOWEVER, HWRF SST VALUES ARE WELL BELOW THE CURRENTLY
ANALYZED VALUES. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE CTCI
AND CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. DUE TO THE COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN 07W
AND 09W, AND THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS
LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[Kingarabian]

Less than impressive today. Looks like a good amount of dry air has been ingested.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNING NR 17//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 07W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM
NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVED CONSOLIDATION WITH A
DEVELOPING RAGGED EYE EVIDENT. A 241730Z SSMIS 37GHZ COLOR
COMPOSITE IMAGE SHOWS A CYAN RING SURROUNDING A MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE, WHICH LIKELY INDICATES AN IMPENDING
RE-INTENSIFICATION PHASE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS
IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH
TS 09W. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 80 KNOTS, BASED
ON THE PGTW DVORAK T4.5 ESTIMATE (77 KNOTS). TY 07W IS CURRENTLY
LOCATED 465NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TS 09W AND IS UNDERGOING BINARY
INTERACTION WITH TS 09W. TY 07W IS UNDER THE PRIMARY STEERING
INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 07W WILL BEGIN A TURN TO THE NORTH AFTER TAU 12 AS
RIDGING BUILDS IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. AROUND TAU 36, A RIDGE
TO THE NORTH WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM AND
TURN THE SYSTEM BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH SOME
MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND SPEED OF THE TURN BACK TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST. TY 07W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A
PEAK OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 24, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM MAY INTENSIFY
TO A HIGHER INTENSITY IF IT DEVELOPS A STRONG EYE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TY 07W IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING IN A CYCLONIC LOOP, AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN, RESULTING IN
ANOTHER TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. AS TY 07W BEGINS TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD, IT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS
TO ENTRAIN DRY MID- LEVEL AIR, AND ENCOUNTERS STRONGER VWS VALUES,
HOWEVER THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST AS THE TRACK MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER WARMER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND BINARY
INTERACTION WITH TS 09W, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

@RyanMaue
Morning view of Typhoon Noru in Western Pacific. Eye has started to show up and clear = intensification. Overshooting t-storm shadows.

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/889599423474524161

[1900hurricane]

Less than impressive today. Looks like a good amount of dry air has been ingested.

That did appear to be the case. Dry air actually looks like it penetrated all the way to the core.



Since then, it appears the core has tried to reorganize, perhaps with a large eye. However, the dry air is still wrapping around dangerously close to the circulation. Maybe having Kulap fly by to the north can help clear some of the dry air out.

[euro6208]

GFS dropped the -899 mb solution for a few runs now. Still forecasting close to 905 mb monster.

[Kingarabian]

GFS dropped the -899 mb solution for a few runs now. Still forecasting close to 905 mb monster.

Uncharacteristically conservative...

[1900hurricane]

Instantaneous DT for light grey CDO (eye number 5.0) with irregular dark grey eye (no eye adjustment for DG eye w/LG ring and -0.5 eye adjustment for irregular eye) is 4.5.

[dexterlabio]

I think it is now vying for that classic large doughnut eye. Not completely sold with that monster Cat5 solution by the models but nevertheless still interesting to see that unfold, especially in the higher latitudes. Also interesting is how Noru will be moving in the next several days, further intensification is possible when it starts to dive into lower latitudes, closer to the warm pool of SST's and away from the dry subtropics.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNING NR 18//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 07W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 172 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A
RAGGED 30-NM EYE. A 242315Z METOP-A 89GHZ IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DFINED CENTER. ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS IMPROVING POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE
UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH TS 09W. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
MAINTAINED AT 80 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77
KNOTS). TY 07W IS CURRENTLY LOCATED 440NM SOUTH OF TS 09W AND IS
UNDERGOING BINARY INTERACTION WITH TS 09W. TY 07W IS UNDER THE
PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE
SOUTH BUT APPEARS TO BE TURNING SLIGHTLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE
PAST TWO HOURS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 07W WILL BEGIN A TURN TO THE NORTH AFTER TAU 12 AS
RIDGING BUILDS IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. AROUND TAU 36, A RIDGE
TO THE NORTH WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM AND
TURN THE SYSTEM BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH SOME
MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND SPEED OF THE TURN BACK TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST. TY 07W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A
PEAK OF 90 KNOTS BY TAU 12, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM MAY INTENSIFY
TO A HIGHER INTENSITY IF IT DEVELOPS A STRONG EYE.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TY 07W IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING IN A CYCLONIC LOOP, AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN, RESULTING IN
ANOTHER TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. AS TY 07W BEGINS TO TRACK
SOUTHWESTWARD, IT WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT BEGINS
TO ENTRAIN DRY MID-LEVEL AIR AND ENCOUNTERS NORTHEASTERLY VWS,
HOWEVER THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD START TO IMPROVE BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST AS THE TRACK MOVES SOUTHWARD OVER WARMER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND BINARY
INTERACTION WITH TS 09W, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNING NR 19//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 07W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 231 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 17 NM RAGGED EYE,
HOWEVER, THE CONVECTIVE CORE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY SHALLOWED OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS THAT AS TS 09W
(KULAP) PASSED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM DIRECTLY NORTH OF TY 07W, THE
ALIGNMENT OF NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF BOTH SYSTEMS
ALLOWED COOL DRY AIR TO INTRUDE ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF NORU. A 250717Z CORIOLIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS
A WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE AND ASYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION LARGELY
TO THE WEST OF THE EYE. AT THE INTERMEDIATE FIX TIME, DVORAK
ESTIMATES WERE BACK UP TO T5.0 (90 KNOTS), SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 85 KNOTS GIVEN THE RECENT DEGRADATION OF CONVECTION.
TY 07W IS CURRENTLY LOCATED APPOXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTH OF TS 09W AND
THE TWO SYSTEMS ARE UNDERGOING BINARY INTERACTION. TY 07W IS UNDER
THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO
THE SOUTH BUT HAS STARTED TO MAKE THE TURN TO THE NORTHEAST AS
RIDGING BUILDS IN TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE, HOWEVER, FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE
BEEN LOWERED DUE TO THE CURRENTLY ANALYZED DEGRADED ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS.
B. OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, TY 07W WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND
THEN NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD AS A RIDGE TO THE NORTH TAKES
OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH SOME MINOR
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND SPEED OF THE TURN BACK TO THE WEST-
NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC
FORECAST. THE INTENSITY HAS LIKELY PEAKED, AND A WEAKENING TREND IS
EXPECTED DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE COOL-DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, MODERATE (20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
WANING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) AS TY 07W LOOPS OVER ITS
PREVIOUS TRACK WITH COOLER UPWELLED WATERS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TY 07W IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING IN A CYCLONIC LOOP, AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN, RESULTING IN ANOTHER TURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. AS TY 07W BEGINS TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD, IT
SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN TO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARMER
SSTS AND IMPROVING MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY, ALLOWING FOR
POTENTIAL RE-INTENSIFICATION TO BEGIN. DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND BINARY INTERACTION WITH TS 09W, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

The last 6 runs from GFS has a peak ranging between 900 to 918 mb. Down again at 913 mb. Stalls it over the Bonin Islands and a big hit for Japan. EURO is more north and east of both locations.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNING NR 21//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 07W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 291 NM NORTHEAST OF
MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO AN 11-NM
RAGGED EYE. A 251717Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE INDICATES ERODING CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE WITH DRY AIR PRESENT OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMI-
CIRCLES, HOWEVER CORE CONVECTIVE BANDING REMAINS WRAPPED INTO A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO
T4.0 (65 KNOTS) WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES SLIGHTLY HIGHER
(4.5 TO 5.0), THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED SLIGHTLY
LOWER AT 75 KNOTS. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION AND RECENT POLEWARD TRACK MOTION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS
RELAXED SOMEWHAT, DOWN TO ABOUT 15 KNOTS, AND OUTFLOW REMAINS
ROBUST, PARTICULARLY IN THE EASTWARD CHANNEL. HOWEVER,
INTENSIFICATION IS BEING TEMPERED BY THE REDUCTION OF MID-LEVEL
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND SLIGHTHLY DEPRESSED SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SSTS). TY 07W IS UNDER THE PRIMARY STEERING INFLUENCE OF A NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) WHICH IS BUILDING POLEWARD AHEAD OF TY 07W,
RESULTING IN THE CURRENT NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS, TY 07W WILL TURN NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD AS A RIDGE TO THE NORTH TAKES OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM. DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 72, WITH SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND SPEED
OF THE TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST. THE CURRENT WEAKENING
TREND IS EXPECTED DUE TO THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT, MODERATE VWS AND LOWER SSTS AS TY 07W LOOPS OVER ITS
PREVIOUS TRACK WITH COOLER UPWELLED WATERS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TY 07W IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING IN A CYCLONIC LOOP, AS A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER SOUTHERN JAPAN, RESULTING IN ANOTHER TURN
TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. AS TY 07W BEGINS TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD, IT
SHOULD GRADUALLY RETURN TO A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARMER
SSTS AND IMPROVING MID-LEVEL RELATIVE HUMIDITY, ALLOWING FOR
POTENTIAL RE-INTENSIFICATION TO BEGIN. MODELS ARE BECOMING MORE
DIVERGENT IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, WITH SOME SOLUTIONS CALLING FOR A
SIGNIFICANT SLOW DOWN AFTER TAU 72. DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING
ENVIRONMENT AND BINARY INTERACTION WITH TD 09W, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 JUL 2017 Time : 234000 UTC
Lat : 28:00:58 N Lon : 158:02:13 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 964.6mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 4.7 4.7

Center Temp : +3.1C Cloud Region Temp : -47.7C

Scene Type : IRREGULAR CDO*

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : N/A
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 37.7 degrees

****************************************************

[Sciencerocks]

WTPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNING NR 022
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 28.1N 157.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.1N 157.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 29.8N 155.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 30.7N 153.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 30.9N 149.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 30.4N 146.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 29.5N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 28.3N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 26.9N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 28.5N 157.4E.
TYPHOON 07W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 314 NM NORTHEAST OF
MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
260000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z
AND 270300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09W (KULAP) FINAL
WARNING (WTPN33 PGTW). REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
11W (ELEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (NORU) WARNING NR 23//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 07W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 327 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF MINAMI TORI SHIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A 12-NM RAGGED EYE. A
260435Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS DRY AIR PRESENT ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY WITH THE CONVECTIVE EYEWALL STRUCTURE ERODING ON THE
WESTERN EDGE. HOWEVER, IN THE LAST COUPLE HOURS THE CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE HAS SHOWN IMPROVEMENT RESULTING IN RISING MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM T4.5 TO T5.0 AND IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSMENT OF 80 KNOTS. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION AND RECENT TRACK MOTION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
SHOWING SIGNS OF IMPROVEMENT, HOWEVER, EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS BEING
RESTRICTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE SYSTEM. OUTFLOW OTHERWISE REMAINS ROBUST.
TY 07W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD GUIDED BY A BUILDING DEEP-
LAYERED RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS
PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS TY NORU WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
GENERALLY WESTWARD UNDER THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO A RIDGE BUILDING OVER JAPAN. INTENSIFICATION WILL
BE MITIGATED DURING THIS TIME AS SSTS OVER THE FORECAST TRACK ARE A
BIT COOLER NEAR 26 TO 27 CELSIUS AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ENVELOP
THE SYSTEM. WIND SHEAR FROM A THE BUILDING NORTHERN RIDGE WILL ALSO
HELP TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 70 KNOTS AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TY NORU IS FORECAST TO
TURN SOUTHWARD AS A WEAK RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD WEST OF THE SYSTEM.
THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO SLOW DOWN WHILE THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT
STABILIZES. THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS TY NORU BACK INTO A MOIST
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM SSTS NEAR 29 TO 30 CELSIUS BEYOND TAU 96. WIND
SHEAR IS ALSO EXPECTED RELAX DURING THIS TIME TY NORU WILL AGAIN
BEGIN TO INTENSIFY. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT
DIVERGENCE IN THE EXTENDED TAUS DUE THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
OVERALL THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

.





Looks a nasty system for Japan on the GFS with the ridge rebuilding in as per JTWC prognosis