RL3AO wrote:beoumont wrote:I've come to consider that the "real" hurricane season runs from August 15th through October 20th. The number of major hurricane landfalls outside of those dates is very very small; somewhere in the 10% range or less. Expecting anything earlier or later almost always turns out to be fantasy.
Audrey 1957, Charley 2004, and the Mobile, Alabama hurricane of 1916 are the only three that immediately come to mind, and Emily in Yucatan in 2005 if one wants to count that one which occurred in what is very likely to be the busiest season in any of our lifetimes.
Someone familiar with the hurricane data sets might check and see what the actual percentage of major hurricane landfalls is outside of the above dates; I am one who would like to know the actual number and percentage.
I pulled in the data from 1950 to 2016.
There are 1509 6-hr time periods with a major hurricane.
109 (7.2%) occurred before August 15th
1318 (87.3%) occurred between August 15th and October 20th
81 (5.4%) occurred after October 20th
As for storms making landfall as a major hurricane since 1950:
I show 48 major hurricanes have made landfall in the Atlantic basin (after removing multiple landfalls from the same storm)
4 of them occurred before August 15th
7 of them occurred after October 20th
That means 37 of 48 (77%) of major hurricane landfalls occur between August 15th and October 20th.
Thanks for running the study for, at least, the years since 1950. The % of all major hurricanes occurring outside the Aug. 15-Oct 20 is about what I suspected. The % of landfalling hurricanes after the Oct. 20 date was quite a bit higher than my gut feelings indicated. Before Aug. 15 about what I suspected.
Upon studying each of those major hurricanes on the list that made landfall after the Oct. 20th date, I realized that my frame of reference is likely "chase-able" major hurricanes; so that skewed my expectations.
The only major tropical cyclone that hit the USA was Wilma; which had sustained 125 mph on the advisory just before landfall in SW Florida. No major hurricane sustained winds were recorded in Florida, though. Of course, Wilma was a major when it made landfall at Cozumel and Cancun, Mexico.
Sandy in 2005 transitioned to sub tropical or non tropical just before landfall in New Jersey.
Joan in 88 made landfall in Nicaragua.
Fox 1952 made landfall in Cuber.
Michelle 2001 made landfall in Cuber; before it became sub-tropical and less than major in the Bahamas. (Brad Riley, Jim Leonard, Mike Theiss, and myself did observe gusts of 105-110 mph in Nassau). 85-90 mph sustained winds in sunlit skies on the convection-less backside after the eye passed over.
Lenny, 1999, made landfall moving ENE at the Virgin Islands. (Brad Riley did chase that to Puerto Rico).
Otto 2016 made landfall in Nicaragua.
(Below is shot, facing ENE from Nassau, inside Michelle's eye: curved east eyewall beyond the suspended sea-spray induced rainbow):
