Wave WSW of Cabo Verde Islands (Is INVEST 97L)

[Hurricaneman]

It's not this the models are developing, it's the one over west Africa looking things over so I will probably start a new thread for that even though it does have a good signature on satellite

[Weather150]

Two thoughts I am thinking:
1. The wave NHC has marked goes on to develop into a TD or Emily and then that paves the way for the next wave to become stronger and become Franklin.
2. The NHC marked wave merges with the next incoming wave off West Africa and they both eventually form to make just Emily.
Models will give a clearer idea later on.

[Hurricaneman]

Okay that makes sense but are currently separate entities hence 2 different threads

[TheStormExpert]

Two thoughts I am thinking:
1. The wave NHC has marked goes on to develop into a TD or Emily and then that paves the way for the next wave to become stronger and become Franklin.
2. The NHC marked wave merges with the next incoming wave off West Africa and they both eventually form to make just Emily.
Models will give a clearer idea later on.

What about option #3, neither develop.

[TheStormExpert]

Either models are totally lost like they've seem to have been so far this season with many waves and disturbances or development is unlikely. I'm leaning towards the latter with this one.

[TheStormExpert]

Expect the 18z GEFS Ensembles to become bullish like they've been the past several evenings.

 https://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/890678999038427136

[Hurricaneman]

Two thoughts I am thinking:
1. The wave NHC has marked goes on to develop into a TD or Emily and then that paves the way for the next wave to become stronger and become Franklin.
2. The NHC marked wave merges with the next incoming wave off West Africa and they both eventually form to make just Emily.
Models will give a clearer idea later on.

What about option #3, neither develop.

Always possible but when you have a little model support option three is something on the lower end of the odds, I'm thinking option 2 myself at the moment

[TheStormExpert]

Two thoughts I am thinking:
1. The wave NHC has marked goes on to develop into a TD or Emily and then that paves the way for the next wave to become stronger and become Franklin.
2. The NHC marked wave merges with the next incoming wave off West Africa and they both eventually form to make just Emily.
Models will give a clearer idea later on.

What about option #3, neither develop.

Always possible but when you have a little model support option three is something on the lower end of the odds, I'm thinking option 2 myself at the moment

Could be right but I wouldn't mind seeing option #1 come true leading to us finally getting our first quality TC of the season that hopefully goes harmlessly OTS.

[Nimbus]

The Apex near 10N -36W is sharpening and there is more convection this afternoon.
Can't see this wave waiting around to merge with one 100's of miles east of it.
Looks invest worthy to me now looking at low resolution imagery.
We have had worse looking waves that people swore had evidence of west winds.

[Hurricaneman]

The 18zGFS likes this disturbance over the one over west Africa so we'll see what happens

I was wrong it kills it off around 72 hrs and seems to jump on the one over west Africa

[gatorcane]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower activity is
associated with a broad low pressure system located about 800 miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Slow development is
possible over the next several days while the system moves westward
or west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[floridasun78]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Thu Jul 27 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized shower activity is
associated with a broad low pressure system located about 800 miles
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Slow development is
possible over the next several days while the system moves westward
or west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[Weather150]

Two thoughts I am thinking:
1. The wave NHC has marked goes on to develop into a TD or Emily and then that paves the way for the next wave to become stronger and become Franklin.
2. The NHC marked wave merges with the next incoming wave off West Africa and they both eventually form to make just Emily.
Models will give a clearer idea later on.

What about option #3, neither develop.

NHC already has odds on it, but that could be option 3, but as long as NHC is interesting, I'm interested.

[gatorcane]

Looks invest-worthy to me. Clear cyclonic turning evident, speed up animation for full effect:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[floridasun78]

nhc have thinking atlantic will wake up soon

[gatorcane]

Like Bret and TD 4, looks like the area has found a break in the SAL. But the GFS looks to surge the SAL rolling off Africa quickly west which may hamper development:

[gatorcane]

Looks like the NAVGEM is finally on board. The model has been very stingy with any deep MDR development so far this year. Or is this from the wave over west Africa still?

[Weather150]

How we stand as of now:
Models showing development:
1. UKMET
2. CMC
3. NAVGEM
4. JMA
Models not showing development:
1. GFS
2. Euro

[Hammy]

While I"m not convinced this will develop yet, it's certainly interesting how persistent the low level westerlies have been now for six weeks with only a few short periods where they weren't present. I honestly can't recall the last time this has happened this early.

[Weather150]

To add back to my last post, the JMA is more of a hinting than a complete show.