2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[abajan]

The 6Z GFS is rolling and continues to show nothing of significance up to 84 hours.

[stormlover2013]

Wxman, said other day that gfs has been really bad, can't trust it

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

EC still hinting @ a closed low over the period.

[tolakram]

Euro is doing it again with the 12Z having nothing and the 0Z coming up with a different solution. This is the wave behind what's currently tagged. I *think*.

[NDG]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/890528192422981633

[gatorcane]

Euro is doing it again with the 12Z having nothing and the 0Z coming up with a different solution. This is the wave behind what's currently tagged. I *think*.

http://i.imgur.com/UmObBjP.gif

I thought this was the area the NHC has given a 30% chance of development to being discussed here:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118885

[PTrackerLA]

Looks like "game on" is getting closer:

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/890528929924214784

[tarheelprogrammer]

12z Euro with no development it appears, and heading into August 6th. Higher than normal pressure, and no start to the season yet. A lot could change though from now to then though, because models can be wrong. Appears all models are showing this though.

[Weather150]

I noticed the trend of the Euro dropping development at 12z, only to bring it back 00z. GFS has kinda being doing something similar, bringing it stronger during 18z.

[cycloneye]

@BigJoeBastardi
euro pops continue to grow on tropical storm development over next week. Euro ensembles like system near w coast Africa now

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/890677122125012994

[Kingarabian]

NASA model showing another SAL outbreak in 7-10 days. Lots of dry air extending all the way down to 10N and extends to 40W.

[otowntiger]

SAL! We love SAL!

[TheStormExpert]

NASA model showing another SAL outbreak in 7-10 days. Lots of dry air extending all the way down to 10N and extends to 40W.

Is getting SAL outbreaks in August even typical, seems kind of late I'd think?

[MetroMike]

NASA model showing another SAL outbreak in 7-10 days. Lots of dry air extending all the way down to 10N and extends to 40W.

The NASA model does not come to mind as a majorly trusted model to me.

[Kingarabian]

NASA model showing another SAL outbreak in 7-10 days. Lots of dry air extending all the way down to 10N and extends to 40W.

The NASA model does not come to mind as a majorly trusted model to me.

Its main job is for dust prediction. Ryan Maue uses it a lot.

[Kingarabian]

NASA model showing another SAL outbreak in 7-10 days. Lots of dry air extending all the way down to 10N and extends to 40W.

Is getting SAL outbreaks in August even typical, seems kind of late I'd think?

Who knows. Could mean nothing.

[Siker]

NASA model showing another SAL outbreak in 7-10 days. Lots of dry air extending all the way down to 10N and extends to 40W.

Is getting SAL outbreaks in August even typical, seems kind of late I'd think?

 https://twitter.com/michaelrlowry/status/888862283660763136

[Hammy]

NASA model showing another SAL outbreak in 7-10 days. Lots of dry air extending all the way down to 10N and extends to 40W.

Is getting SAL outbreaks in August even typical, seems kind of late I'd think?

Who knows. Could mean nothing.

I think 1996/98/99 and even 2005 and 10 had major SAL outbreaks during August, which caused the first 18 days or so of August to be void of activity, so it can happen even in active seasons.

[Alyono]

NASA model showing another SAL outbreak in 7-10 days. Lots of dry air extending all the way down to 10N and extends to 40W.

exactly why I raise the BS Flag on the Kelvin Wave causing development. It is a small enhancing factor. However, given the large scale conditions will be brutal for the next 3 weeks due to the SAL as per the models, a Kelvin Wave is not going to allow for genesis to occur, aside form a possible weak, brief system

[Hammy]

NASA model showing another SAL outbreak in 7-10 days. Lots of dry air extending all the way down to 10N and extends to 40W.

exactly why I raise the BS Flag on the Kelvin Wave causing development. It is a small enhancing factor. However, given the large scale conditions will be brutal for the next 3 weeks due to the SAL as per the models, a Kelvin Wave is not going to allow for genesis to occur, aside form a possible weak, brief system

Sounds like it's best not to expect much before the 15th of next month.