2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[otowntiger]

NASA model showing another SAL outbreak in 7-10 days. Lots of dry air extending all the way down to 10N and extends to 40W.

exactly why I raise the BS Flag on the Kelvin Wave causing development. It is a small enhancing factor. However, given the large scale conditions will be brutal for the next 3 weeks due to the SAL as per the models, a Kelvin Wave is not going to allow for genesis to occur, aside form a possible weak, brief system

thats of course if you can trust any model making predictions 2-3 weeks out including NASA's dust model.

[Kingarabian]

:roll:

NASA model showing another SAL outbreak in 7-10 days. Lots of dry air extending all the way down to 10N and extends to 40W.

exactly why I raise the BS Flag on the Kelvin Wave causing development. It is a small enhancing factor. However, given the large scale conditions will be brutal for the next 3 weeks due to the SAL as per the models, a Kelvin Wave is not going to allow for genesis to occur, aside form a possible weak, brief system

thats of course if you can trust any model making predictions 2-3 weeks out including NASA's dust model.

Its not magic. All it does is analyze the SAL over western Africa and see if atmospheric conditions allow for such outbreaks. Plus a week is not a long way out for modern models.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Ukmet ramps up a vigorous MT, thus the systems along the trough.

[AtlanticWind]

Gfs has a hurricane at the end of the run along the outer banks

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

http://www.weathernerds.org/models/gfs.html
Indeed

[AtlanticWind]

Euro developing wave behind 97L

[otowntiger]

:roll:

exactly why I raise the BS Flag on the Kelvin Wave causing development. It is a small enhancing factor. However, given the large scale conditions will be brutal for the next 3 weeks due to the SAL as per the models, a Kelvin Wave is not going to allow for genesis to occur, aside form a possible weak, brief system

thats of course if you can trust any model making predictions 2-3 weeks out including NASA's dust model.

Its not magic. All it does is analyze the SAL over western Africa and see if atmospheric conditions allow for such outbreaks. Plus a week is not a long way out for modern models.

. Yes, but we're talking 2-3 weeks, not one week.

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS seems to be showing the beginning of the lid coming off around the 10th or so but it's been pretty consistent about that the last day or 2 so let's see if that timeframe comes in as more model runs come in

[gatorcane]

So far not too impressed with the upgraded GFS an ECMWF in the Atlantic MDR. Over the last week we have seen both models do 180 turns between successive runs with one run showing development (even as far as showing a hurricane) to another run show nothing. Take the last two runs of the ECMWF as an example between 12Z today and 00Z before. All the while the much inferior NAVGEM model consistently showing no development with only one run showing weak development.

[chaser1]

Tropical Storm by next Wednesday? I think i'm gonna hold out for at least 36 hours and watch for EURO model continuity. As of 0Z last night though, 3 global models spun up a small tight T.D. or Storm in the MDR between 108 -120 hours from that point. The GFS is NOT one of them. Which model has most consistently continued to forecast this feature by the way?? The CMC (GEM)?!! The UK jumped on board yesterday and of last night the EURO seemed to jump on as well. That said, the 12Z EURO has just come out and has dropped this system entirely. Still, models imply and ebb and flow of depicted conditions. Maybe the EURO picks up this feature next run - maybe not.

Interestingly, we have both the GFS and the EURO receiving upgrade tweaks and what are the noticeable changes that I can tell? The GFS seems neutered while the EURO has possibly been tweaked to do something that I've long found a fault of the model. The EURO might have actually been improved to better detect meso-scale genesis in the tropics. Last nights EURO 0Z run depicts a 1009 low to develop at about 35W in about 120 hr's. It went on to deepen this very small feature and slowly move it WNW for about 3 days before it unwinds. It'll be interesting to see if the EURO has now has consecutive runs no longer depicting development with this feature or if it picks up this small tight low again, and begins to consistently shorten the time range. A few interesting hints worth watching are:

1) The GFS will either be the only major model to correctly verify "no development in the mid-term or be the only major model to not pick up on the vague tropical tea leaves.
2) Regardless of the strength or longevity of any new tropical cyclone that might develop within 5 days "if" another Tropical Storm were to develop, this would only further suggest the type of favorable deep MDR conditions likely to cause Aug., Sept. and Oct. to be very active.
3) Moisture wicking SAL does not necessarily play nearly as significant a role in low latitude development if other favorable conditions exist
4) Models just 3 or 4 days ago were depicting "nothing" (for those having already waved the "Season Cancel" sign, please read this last point again).
5) Just like gas prices, opinions and underwear, conditions in the tropics and the models that forecast them, change daily

[chaser1]

Ha!? Gatorcane, I was just typing up what you had just posted. I guess we'll have to let the test of time bear out whether any models have become more or less reliable

[Siker]

Euro seems to want to develop a wave coming off Africa next Wednesday.

[RL3AO]

In terms of timing, the best chance for something to interact with the CCKW would be either the wave over West Africa that's about to enter the Atlantic or more likely a wave associated with the jet over west central Africa.

The 12z GFS was much weaker on the eastern wave compared to the 6z run. I'd still put the best odds on that wave being the one to develop in the next 7 to 10 days. That's probably the one the Euro is seeing too.

[Hammy]

I've noticed the Euro is trending towards some development, though it doesn't seem to be sure which wave, by the end of the run, as well as moving the waves slightly north into Central America rather than developing them in the Pacific--so the pattern is slowly changing.

[gatorcane]

how the 12Z Euro run ends with the system inbetween Lesser Antilles and Africa by day 10:

[Hammy]

Is anybody else having trouble with Tropical Tidbits frames taking awhile to load?

[USTropics]

Is anybody else having trouble with Tropical Tidbits frames taking awhile to load?

I sometimes get that issue on mobile devices but I'm not having any issues currently on my desktop.

[USTropics]

The 18z GFS ensembles are hinting at a possible Caribbean cruiser the second week of August. The 18z runs of the GEFS seem to be a bit over aggressive since the upgrade, we'll have to see if the 00z run continues to show this:



The CMC ensembles are also indicating something in this time frame, but more to the north:

[TheStormExpert]

18z GEFS Ensembles have been aggressive for days with something every 18z run. With how hostile the Caribbean has been so far this season I would take anything with an extra grain of salt.

[AxaltaRacing24]

:uarrow: 18z GEFS Ensembles have been aggressive for days with something every 18z run. With how hostile the Caribbean has been so far this season I would take anything with an extra grain of salt.

It hasn't really been too "hostile" compared to July climo though. Wind shear down there is around average and should decline some in the next month or so with less EPAC activity/convection along with the ESNO coming down even more.