ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Convection has fallen off but its got a really sexy spin to it!
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
The sunset frames on Thursday showed an exposed center that was obviously invest worthy.
Will it persist is the question.
Will it persist is the question.
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139567
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Is over.
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Cloudiness and showers in the central tropical Atlantic have
decreased since yesterday. Environmental conditions have
become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation while
the system moves slowly westward for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Avila
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Cloudiness and showers in the central tropical Atlantic have
decreased since yesterday. Environmental conditions have
become less favorable for tropical cyclone formation while
the system moves slowly westward for the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Forecaster Avila
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1705
- Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
- Location: Nags Head, NC
- Contact:
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3950
- Age: 27
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
SAL has really finished off storms these past few years, it's almost annoying.
1 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
- Emmett_Brown
- Category 5
- Posts: 1343
- Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:10 pm
- Location: Sarasota FL
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
For the average storm watcher 20 years ago, SAL data was not readily available. Promising looking waves usually "poofed" before Aug 15th because of climatology. It was a simpler time...
Last edited by Emmett_Brown on Fri Jul 28, 2017 10:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
1 likes
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23499
- Age: 46
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Latest image of SAL. That is quite a SAL surge rolling off Africa and clearly impacting this invest:
0 likes
- TheStormExpert
- Category 5
- Posts: 8487
- Age: 30
- Joined: Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:38 pm
- Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
I know someone said that this season is featuring the least amount of SAL since 2005, but I find that hard to believe since basically every development opportunity so far this season in the past month or so has been ruined by the pesky SAL outbreaks. Not saying this should be like 2005 in any way but we were able to have two majors in the MDR that July so obviously you'd think SAL had to have been extremely less present. Also is this normal for almost August to still be seeing these big SAL surges rolling off Africa still?
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3755
- Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
- Location: miami fl
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
TheStormExpert wrote:I know someone said that this season is featuring the least amount of SAL since 2005, but I find that hard to believe since basically every development opportunity so far this season in the past month or so has been ruined by the pesky SAL outbreaks. Not saying this should be like 2005 in any way but we were able to have two majors in the MDR that July so obviously you'd think SAL had to have been extremely less present. Also is this normal for almost August to still be seeing these big SAL surges rolling off Africa still?
what i been hearing from weatherman i know this sal will get weaker as we move into aug will take time july know for sal i do remember one season when sal run into aug let see w3hat happen we dont have good models for sal yet
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 1787
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:06 pm
- Location: Orlando
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
and apparently many to come. Wow, that's a lot of dry, sandy air.gatorcane wrote:Latest image of SAL. That is quite a SAL surge rolling off Africa and clearly impacting this invest:
https://s1.postimg.org/9jc3c3plb/split_EW.jpg
0 likes
-
- Admin
- Posts: 19180
- Age: 60
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
I think the actual answer is ...
no, that's a normal occurrence for this time of year. I realize people have hard time believing it but there's a very good reason the Cape Verde season usually does not get going until mid August. It's not for lack of waves, it's water temps and dust.
This is getting to be a stuck record in about every Atlantic thread. Remember, just because something happened in ____ does not mean the same will happen this year.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/#ori
no, that's a normal occurrence for this time of year. I realize people have hard time believing it but there's a very good reason the Cape Verde season usually does not get going until mid August. It's not for lack of waves, it's water temps and dust.
This is getting to be a stuck record in about every Atlantic thread. Remember, just because something happened in ____ does not mean the same will happen this year.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/#ori
1 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22503
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
I went back and looked at some of my late July/early August presentations where I had SAL images (below). I've noticed that this year's SAL is a bit less than recent years. It's normal to have a significant SAL in July. Remember a few years ago we had a giant SAL outbreak in August?
As for this disturbance, it still looks like the models are developing the disturbance that is currently moving off the west coast of Africa. You can follow the vorticity and moisture westward to around 35W on Monday, the current location of this wave. That's where/when the Canadian develops a low. I don't think this wave will remain stationary over the weekend.
As for this disturbance, it still looks like the models are developing the disturbance that is currently moving off the west coast of Africa. You can follow the vorticity and moisture westward to around 35W on Monday, the current location of this wave. That's where/when the Canadian develops a low. I don't think this wave will remain stationary over the weekend.
8 likes
-
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 190
- Joined: Fri Jul 07, 2017 7:46 pm
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
000
ABNT20 KNHC 281719
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
$$
Forecaster Avila
ABNT20 KNHC 281719
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Fri Jul 28 2017
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.
$$
Forecaster Avila
0 likes
- Miami Storm Tracker
- Category 3
- Posts: 893
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2010 10:12 pm
- Location: Key Largo, Fla.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Afternoon all,
Just a guesstimate but on the visible the low appears to be at about 11.5 and 33 but at the present time I don't see much in the way of storms developing around it.
Just a guesstimate but on the visible the low appears to be at about 11.5 and 33 but at the present time I don't see much in the way of storms developing around it.
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Okay, this is mighty interesting. It's totally vanished from the TWO. So, is it still an invest? If it is, I don't recall that ever happening.
0 likes
- wxman57
- Moderator-Pro Met
- Posts: 22503
- Age: 66
- Joined: Sat Jun 21, 2003 8:06 pm
- Location: Houston, TX (southwest)
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
abajan wrote:Okay, this is mighty interesting. It's totally vanished from the TWO. So, is it still an invest? If it is, I don't recall that ever happening.
An invest can exist without any development potential.
1 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
wxman57 wrote:abajan wrote:Okay, this is mighty interesting. It's totally vanished from the TWO. So, is it still an invest? If it is, I don't recall that ever happening.
An invest can exist without any development potential.
Yes, I know that can happen in theory. But can you recall the last time there was nothing stated in the TWO about an existing invest?
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Discussion
Weird how they put the invest up before the morning visible imagery indicated a poof.
The cloud pattern at sunset yesterday was a classic strong wave that looked like it might overcome SAL.
I would leave the floater on it till -50w to see if it starts picking up convection.
Models can just run it into the Caribbean for now.
The cloud pattern at sunset yesterday was a classic strong wave that looked like it might overcome SAL.
I would leave the floater on it till -50w to see if it starts picking up convection.
Models can just run it into the Caribbean for now.
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests