2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[CFLHurricane]

Yeah I thought that Nor'easter seemed quite off. This very well could be a bad sign for those (like me) hoping for an active Atlantic hurricane season. If in 2 weeks the models still show zilch 10-16 days out I'm willing to call it season cancel especially if the pattern starts changing to more of a fall/winter type pattern.

Personally I'm not too worried about season cancel just because this season is clearly different from recent years. I remember conversation in this forum in '13/'14/'15 centered around declarations that "the wave train is going to start at any moment". This year we have no such issues. Climatology will take care of the rest as long as the waves are there.

Just my 2¢

[SFLcane]

Um...What does a deep trof in Aug have to do with a busy season? If anything it might only suggest " recurve city " once again in 2017. Either way most AEW 90% recurve into the open Atlantic. Looking for a ramp up soon but were they track is anyones guess.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

We're definitely going to see a fall/winter pattern in the first week of August.

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The trough/low pressure across the NE USA is anomalous. Anomalous events happen every year. Unless someone can explain how that indicates a weak season, you're just throwing anything at a wall trying to make it stick.

[TheStormExpert]

Yeah I thought that Nor'easter seemed quite off. This very well could be a bad sign for those (like me) hoping for an active Atlantic hurricane season. If in 2 weeks the models still show zilch 10-16 days out I'm willing to call it season cancel especially if the pattern starts changing to more of a fall/winter type pattern.

Personally I'm not too worried about season cancel just because this season is clearly different from recent years. I remember conversation in this forum in '13/'14/'15 centered around declarations that "the wave train is going to start at any moment". This year we have no such issues. Climatology will take care of the rest as long as the waves are there.

Just my 2¢

Not necessarily, besides excluding me 2013 has probably been brought up a little more this season than the last several. But the atmosphere and environment does not always follow climatology and that might be happening here.

Also does anyone know excluding 2013 when was the last time a nor'easter affected the NE U.S. in late July or this early on and what was the outcome of that season?

[Ntxw]

Not necessarily, besides excluding me 2013 has probably been brought up a little more this season than the last several. But the atmosphere and environment does not always follow climatology and that might be happening here.

Also does anyone know excluding 2013 when was the last time a nor'easter affected the NE U.S. in late July or this early on and what was the outcome of that season?

I don't know about in the past but medium range is hinting at a big fall like trough across the eastern US with anomalous cooler air after the nor'easter like storm, assuming it is right

[crownweather]

Yeah I thought that Nor'easter seemed quite off. This very well could be a bad sign for those (like me) hoping for an active Atlantic hurricane season. If in 2 weeks the models still show zilch 10-16 days out I'm willing to call it season cancel especially if the pattern starts changing to more of a fall/winter type pattern.

Personally I'm not too worried about season cancel just because this season is clearly different from recent years. I remember conversation in this forum in '13/'14/'15 centered around declarations that "the wave train is going to start at any moment". This year we have no such issues. Climatology will take care of the rest as long as the waves are there.

Just my 2¢

Not necessarily, besides excluding me 2013 has probably been brought up a little more this season than the last several. But the atmosphere and environment does not always follow climatology and that might be happening here.

Also does anyone know excluding 2013 when was the last time a nor'easter affected the NE U.S. in late July or this early on and what was the outcome of that season?

If my memory is correct (and it probably isn't), there was a stronger than average trough and front that dropped down into Florida on August 12th, 2004. This front was unusual as it brought cool/dry air pretty far south and it also helped pull and steer Hurricane Charley north and then northeast across SW and central Florida on August 13th, 2004. Just an observation based on memory.....

[Steve]

Yeah I thought that Nor'easter seemed quite off. This very well could be a bad sign for those (like me) hoping for an active Atlantic hurricane season. If in 2 weeks the models still show zilch 10-16 days out I'm willing to call it season cancel especially if the pattern starts changing to more of a fall/winter type pattern.

C'mon Man. You aren't 12 years old or new to this.

GFS showed multiple coastal lows in succession days ago. It's got nothing to do with fall patterns. It's current atmospheric processes of late July 2017. There was a low, and there is a front that will make it through to the Gulf in the next couple of days. More lows will form off the mid and SE US coast. It's not the peak. These are atmospheric processes occurring before a transition to hurricane season. Y'all seriously need to chill with the impatience.

[Steve]

Um...What does a deep trof in Aug have to do with a busy season? If anything it might only suggest " recurve city " once again in 2017. Either way most AEW 90% recurve into the open Atlantic. Looking for a ramp up soon but were they track is anyones guess.

Remember 2005? A poster on here I'm not going to name from the New Orleans area declared the season was over with a deep August front. I warned him that should be taken with a grain of salt because of the seasonal variations and obvious transitions. He didn't buy it. Katrina, Rita, Stan and Wilma weren't far behind.

[Hammy]

Something interesting I've found after a bit of digging is there was a fairly strong cold outbreak (highs in the middle 60s down to Georgia after checking) in mid-August 1964 by the looks of it. https://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/092/mwr-092-11-0535.pdf

That said, any input on potential implications on the hurricane season would certainly be welcome from the pro mets here.

[PTrackerLA]

We reach the 50's in mid August 2004 with the trough that pulled Charley into the west Coast of Florida here in South LA. Don't think there's been temperatures that low in mid August since!

[CyclonicFury]

We reach the 50's in mid August 2004 with the trough that pulled Charley into the west Coast of Florida here in South LA. Don't think there's been temperatures that low in mid August since!

I know August 2004 was cooler than normal in a large part of the U.S. 2013 was similar yet the two hurricane seasons had greatly different outcomes.

[Andrew92]

Something interesting I've found after a bit of digging is there was a fairly strong cold outbreak (highs in the middle 60s down to Georgia after checking) in mid-August 1964 by the looks of it. https://docs.lib.noaa.gov/rescue/mwr/092/mwr-092-11-0535.pdf

That said, any input on potential implications on the hurricane season would certainly be welcome from the pro mets here.

Certainly interesting, coupled with what we know about 2004. And that year in late August featured another strong Florida hurricane, Cleo. Currently it is listed as a C2, though some time ago I want to say I read somewhere (can't remember where though) that there was possibly speculation of an upgrade to a C3 at landfall in Florida when re-analysis is complete. Not saying I buy it, and I think I also read her bark was worse than her bite in Florida (though definitely not in the Caribbean), so we'll see about that one.

I don't think Cleo's path was very typical for that time of year either, though David in 1979 would draw comparisons too (also a bit unusual, especially with landfall eventually near Savannah of all places). What if either one had reached the Gulf though first, like Charley? We'll never know, but with Hilda later in 1964 and Frederic shortly after in 1979, I think all bets would be off. That is especially also considering Charley's explosive intensification shortly before landfall. Makes me wonder if 1979 was similar to 1964 or 2004 too in that sense!

Cleo and David were also shredded somewhat by Hispaniola too, something that Charley avoided. Big difference though, those two storms were already quite powerful while Charley was still developing. You have to think that overall, while Hispaniola especially got pounded by those two, the US and especially Florida likely dodged huge bullets that could have been a lot worse with Cleo and David.

If those three years were all similar to this year's pattern, I would of course hope for the best, but be prepared for the worst in Florida (and elsewhere too).

-Andrew92

[Hammy]

While I can't find anything about the month's climate as a whole,1979 (like 1964) seemed to have some sort of cold weather outbreak in middle August, as evidenced by a high of 71 in Athens GA on the 16th (and only reaching 81 the next day). And an interesting note, like this year 1979 had a tropical storm in the MDR in June, and both years had an extended quiet period before late August--1964 having no named storms in July, and only a few short-lived storms before the 20th of August, and 1979 had nothing at all from late July until Aug 25.

[Alyono]

something to consider since there is a distinct global depression in TC activity

is the heat distribution between the tropics and the poles more equal the normal? If so, that will have a major suppression on TCs as a TCs function is to redistribute heat from the tropics to the poles. This is not my area of expertise so I will have to defer to others on this question

[weathaguyry]

2013 had extremely warm water off the east coast into the Canadian maritimes and beyond, which zapped the overall instability in the tropics, leading to a wacky season

[NDG]

Just because there's a forecasted trough to dig down across the whole eastern US in early August does not mean that the Autumn like pattern is here to stay. Patterns change and that could mean that a strong +NAO could be back for the heart of the hurricane season like it did in 2004. The Atlantic mid level ridge has been strong this year like I posted a few days ago.

A look back to early August 2004, record breaking cold across the eastern US.

[RL3AO]

Here's a good write up about the impacts of CCKWs on the Atlantic from Michael Ventrice. Straight from his PhD work.

https://www.facebook.com/MJVentrice/pos ... 0353476585

[tolakram]

In 2004 my area had numerous cool spells in July and August, including one incredible cold spell in August where the high was only 69F on both the 12th and 13th of the month, under clear skies.

I'll take it again please!

[tolakram]

You can use this page to pull up daily national weather maps all the way back to 2002.

July 27th 2004: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/index_20040727.html

For older than that use this page: https://www.lib.noaa.gov/collections/imgdocmaps/daily_weather_maps.html

The middle link: April 15, 1968 - December 31, 2002 can be used to download a multi page image that requires a viewer to look at. I use a program called irfanview.

Here's August 5th 1998, for example. direct link: http://i.imgur.com/mAR6Tv3.jpg

[cycloneye]

@MJVentrice
Indications that our big Kelvin wave passage across the W. Hemisphere could spark what has been alluded to MJO initiation o/the Indian Ocean

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/891273651991060484




@EricBlake12
Eric Blake Retweeted Michael Ventrice
If that strong convection sets up over Africa w/subsidence near 180- watch out! Historically that's an active August Atlantic TC pattern

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/891308419726151681