2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Kingarabian]

Well one thing is for sure, I have not been all that impressed with the GFS and Euro since the upgrade or even since the season started for that matter. So it very well may be the models doing poorly.

The upgrades are not overhauls. The GFS had like a 1-2% increase in resolution? Euro had none. The upgrades are mostly touch ups.

[RL3AO]

Well one thing is for sure, I have not been all that impressed with the GFS and Euro since the upgrade or even since the season started for that matter. So it very well may be the models doing poorly.

In past years, the GFS was probably too liberal with development while the Euro was often too conservative. However, if both models are too conservative now (which it's way too soon to tell), we may not have as many systems that the GFS picks up 12 days out.

[gatorcane]

Yeah that is my concern with the upgraded GFS. It is as conservative with genesis if not more conservative now than the Euro. But it seems it can be way too aggressive on intensity once a system has formed or is likely to form. Look at Hilary in the EPAC and Cindy in the Atlantic earlier this year.

[Hammy]

Yeah that is my concern with the upgraded GFS. It is as conservative with genesis if not more conservative now than the Euro. But it seems it can be way too aggressive on intensity once a system has formed or is likely to form. Look at Hilary in the EPAC and Cindy in the Atlantic earlier this year.

This is a major reason I'm hesitant to make any sort of forecast for this season at the moment--thinks look like they're going to be quiet (thanks to the models) but it's entirely possible to get to Aug 10 with the models showing nothing, and then have 2-3 storms five days later. It's certainly made the model watching boring.

[gatorcane]

I can see why the models have shown possible development with the wave rolling off Africa tonight though dry air further west should reduce convection tomorrow

[weathaguyry]

Well one thing is for sure, I have not been all that impressed with the GFS and Euro since the upgrade or even since the season started for that matter. So it very well may be the models doing poorly.

In past years, the GFS was probably too liberal with development while the Euro was often too conservative. However, if both models are too conservative now (which it's way too soon to tell), we may not have as many systems that the GFS picks up 12 days out.

The GFS-P didn't do as bad with Cindy as the OP GFS did, I think it'll take a little while to truly see how good the GFS is, since it hasn't been operational for a while, the Euro is about the same in my opinion, good in long range and short range, but underestimates intensity and drops development in the mid range.

[TheAustinMan]

The GFS-P didn't do as bad with Cindy as the OP GFS did, I think it'll take a little while to truly see how good the GFS is, since it hasn't been operational for a while, the Euro is about the same in my opinion, good in long range and short range, but underestimates intensity and drops development in the mid range.

I seem to recall that the GFS while in parallel ran into quite a bit of trouble attempting to deal with smaller-scale vorticities it was spawning in association with proto-Cindy. Poor handling of those vorticity maxima led to highly volatile track and intensity solutions, if I remember correctly.

[MetroMike]

I can see why the models have shown possible development with the wave rolling off Africa tonight though dry air further west should reduce convection tomorrow

Yes we shall see. But there is a envelope of non SAL in front of it currently.

[Siker]

00z GFS has a TS from the wave in... 12 hours??

[TheStormExpert]

This is a joke right!?



Sends it straight into the SAL while strengthening it.

[Steve]

That's a beast high.

[AutoPenalti]

That's a mothership.

[Alyono]

GFS is showing little, if any vorticity in the Atlantic in mid August

yeah, I'm starting to question my thoughts of a hyperactive season

[RL3AO]

GFS is showing little, if any vorticity in the Atlantic in mid August

yeah, I'm starting to question my thoughts of a hyperactive season

Do you trust it? We go from impressive waves to mediocre ones after the "upgrade"

[Alyono]

GFS is showing little, if any vorticity in the Atlantic in mid August

yeah, I'm starting to question my thoughts of a hyperactive season

Do you trust it? We go from impressive waves to mediocre ones after the "upgrade"

I never trusted the old GFS, lol

This one, I am noticing seem to have convective feedback issues. Note how many microsized TCs it has formed this year. It tends to over intensify those. Bret was the worst. It had Bret as a hurricane when it was a minimal TS.

No waves at all though seems to be something in the large scale circulation that's off. All basins are underperforming in terms of quality (WPAC just h Nesat massively underperform the model projections), including the EPAC

[Hurricaneman]

Remember this though, 1998 from August 21st until the end went 13/10/3 so I wouldn't say anything unless we don't have a tropical storm or hurricane pump by August 20th, if anything the conditions on the Euro look better than they do on the GFS which is why I look to the Euro when it comes to that right now, and the Euro is trending closer to favorable mjo conditions as it seems the line in 7 days is slowly trending towards 8 and maybe 1 so and some of its ensembles are even going towards the 2 and 3 regions also so is it a trend towards the lid coming off or is it just noise we'll just have to wait and see as it seem the Euro has been best with the MJO and who knows what's going to happen with the CCKW as of now

[RL3AO]

GFS is showing little, if any vorticity in the Atlantic in mid August

yeah, I'm starting to question my thoughts of a hyperactive season

Do you trust it? We go from impressive waves to mediocre ones after the "upgrade"

I never trusted the old GFS, lol

This one, I am noticing seem to have convective feedback issues. Note how many microsized TCs it has formed this year. It tends to over intensify those. Bret was the worst. It had Bret as a hurricane when it was a minimal TS.

No waves at all though seems to be something in the large scale circulation that's off. All basins are underperforming in terms of quality (WPAC just h Nesat massively underperform the model projections), including the EPAC

Gfs keeps trying to develop these eastward drifting vort maxes too

[Hammy]

GFS is showing little, if any vorticity in the Atlantic in mid August

yeah, I'm starting to question my thoughts of a hyperactive season

Do you trust it? We go from impressive waves to mediocre ones after the "upgrade"

I never trusted the old GFS, lol

This one, I am noticing seem to have convective feedback issues. Note how many microsized TCs it has formed this year. It tends to over intensify those. Bret was the worst. It had Bret as a hurricane when it was a minimal TS.

No waves at all though seems to be something in the large scale circulation that's off. All basins are underperforming in terms of quality (WPAC just h Nesat massively underperform the model projections), including the EPAC

Are you thinking there's something off with the atmospheric conditions, or the modeling? The EPAC seems like it's been quite a bit above normal so far as a whole.

[Alyono]

Do you trust it? We go from impressive waves to mediocre ones after the "upgrade"

I never trusted the old GFS, lol

This one, I am noticing seem to have convective feedback issues. Note how many microsized TCs it has formed this year. It tends to over intensify those. Bret was the worst. It had Bret as a hurricane when it was a minimal TS.

No waves at all though seems to be something in the large scale circulation that's off. All basins are underperforming in terms of quality (WPAC just h Nesat massively underperform the model projections), including the EPAC

Are you thinking there's something off with the atmospheric conditions, or the modeling? The EPAC seems like it's been quite a bit above normal so far as a whole.

the atmospheric circulation. While we have had a high quantity in the EPAC, the storms have under performed their expectations. Quantity over quality

[beoumont]

Always like to keep 1961 in back of mind; as by Sept.1 there had only been one named storm. The season ended with 3 cat. 3s, 2 cat 4s, and 2 cat 5s. On Sept. 12 there were 5 storms in the Atlantic basin. Carla and Hattie were the 2 cat. 5s; and Esther was seeded as a pre formal Project Stormfury mission. Hattie, which decimated Belize as a Cat. 5, became Simone in the E. Pac; then crossed back over Tehauntepec and became Inga in the Gulf. Definitely an eventful season.

I didn't look at the surface, mid level, or upper level charts back then, so I can't relate why nothing much occurred before September 2nd; or what might have changed that set off that season.

# Name Date Wind Pres Cat
1 Hurricane-3 ANNA 20-24 JUL 100 976 3
2 Hurricane-4 BETSY 2-12 SEP 120 945 4
3 Hurricane-5 CARLA 3-16 SEP 150 931 5
4 Hurricane-3 DEBBIE 6-16 SEP 105 970 3
5 Hurricane-4 ESTHER 10-27 SEP 125 927 4
6 Tropical Storm 6 12-15 SEP 35 0 -
7 Hurricane-3 FRANCES 30 SEP-10 OCT 110 948 3
8 Tropical Storm GERDA 16-22 OCT 60 987 -
9 Hurricane-5 HATTIE 27 OCT- 1 NOV 140 920 5
10 Hurricane-1 JENNY 1- 9 NOV 70 974 1
11 Tropical Storm INGA 5- 8 NOV 60 992 -