2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[TheStormExpert]

Not to sound alarmist or start another impatient season cancel string of comments, but as some mets here have expressed doubt concerning the global conditions, combined with the models showing little to nothing as far as tropical waves (which I started noticing last night), what are the thoughts of some of the mets and other more knowledgeable posters on this--are we potentially headed towards something along similar lines to 2013? Or are there other clearer atmospheric forces at work here? What are the implications on the rest of the season? My confidence in this year being active are starting to slide at the moment.

I thought the season was over? I don't see anything close to 2013 Iam expecting a rather active season with multiple threats to the US.

Well then when do you see the Atlantic finally waking up?

Obviously if it doesn't show signs of waking up by two weeks from now I'd say the season very well is likely doomed.

[RL3AO]

It seems the waves just get weaker out of the blue.

Likely due to the large scale upper convergence over Africa due to the suppressed phase of the MJO and a suppressed CCKW during the last 10 to 14 days.

[RL3AO]

Well then when do you see the Atlantic finally waking up?

What have many people been saying for more than two weeks now? The 2nd or 3rd week of August. It's currently July 30th.

[AutoPenalti]

Not to sound alarmist or start another impatient season cancel string of comments, but as some mets here have expressed doubt concerning the global conditions, combined with the models showing little to nothing as far as tropical waves (which I started noticing last night), what are the thoughts of some of the mets and other more knowledgeable posters on this--are we potentially headed towards something along similar lines to 2013? Or are there other clearer atmospheric forces at work here? What are the implications on the rest of the season? My confidence in this year being active are starting to slide at the moment.

I thought the season was over? I don't see anything close to 2013 Iam expecting a rather active season with multiple threats to the US.

Well then when do you see the Atlantic finally waking up?

Obviously if it doesn't show signs of waking up by two weeks from now I'd say the season very well is likely doomed.

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???

We haven't even reached peak yet, which is in mid-September, and you're calling for a doomed season in mid-August?

[Ntxw]

Not to sound alarmist or start another impatient season cancel string of comments, but as some mets here have expressed doubt concerning the global conditions, combined with the models showing little to nothing as far as tropical waves (which I started noticing last night), what are the thoughts of some of the mets and other more knowledgeable posters on this--are we potentially headed towards something along similar lines to 2013? Or are there other clearer atmospheric forces at work here? What are the implications on the rest of the season? My confidence in this year being active are starting to slide at the moment.

I thought the season was over? I don't see anything close to 2013 Iam expecting a rather active season with multiple threats to the US.

Well then when do you see the Atlantic finally waking up?

Obviously if it doesn't show signs of waking up by two weeks from now I'd say the season very well is likely doomed.

I don't personally believe a 2013 type scenario is very likely, nor a hyper season like 2005 or 2004. Perhaps we end up in the middle like 2001 or 2012. If a moderate to strong Nina had been on the way, I'd definitely lean to a 1995/1998/2010 ACE machine but that is also a low probability given ONI. These neutralish years tend to lean normal skewed slightly above.

[Hurricaneman]

Well then when do you see the Atlantic finally waking up?

What have many people been saying for more than two weeks now? The 2nd or 3rd week of August. It's currently July 30th.

I'm now saying around the 20th myself and we'll start to see clues in the models within the next week or so

[Hammy]

I thought the season was over? I don't see anything close to 2013 Iam expecting a rather active season with multiple threats to the US.

Well then when do you see the Atlantic finally waking up?

Obviously if it doesn't show signs of waking up by two weeks from now I'd say the season very well is likely doomed.

I don't personally believe a 2013 type scenario is very likely, nor a hyper season like 2005 or 2004. Perhaps we end up in the middle like 2001 or 2012. If a moderate to strong Nina had been on the way, I'd definitely lean to a 1995/1998/2010 ACE machine but that is also a low probability given ONI. These neutralish years tend to lean normal skewed slightly above.

Any idea what mechanics are at work as far as the reduced global activity and storms underperforming the models? That's the most puzzling thing here. The WPAC from what others are saying seems to be below normal as well.

On my confidence in an active season slipping, I'm not by any stretch saying it'll be quiet, just unsure either way and more trying to figure out what's going on as it's been brought up by a few mets here.

[Ntxw]

Well then when do you see the Atlantic finally waking up?

Obviously if it doesn't show signs of waking up by two weeks from now I'd say the season very well is likely doomed.

I don't personally believe a 2013 type scenario is very likely, nor a hyper season like 2005 or 2004. Perhaps we end up in the middle like 2001 or 2012. If a moderate to strong Nina had been on the way, I'd definitely lean to a 1995/1998/2010 ACE machine but that is also a low probability given ONI. These neutralish years tend to lean normal skewed slightly above.

Any idea what mechanics are at work as far as the reduced global activity and storms underperforming the models? That's the most puzzling thing here. The WPAC from what others are saying seems to be below normal as well.

Well in large part there has been a La Nina the past year, which for the Pacific Ocean is a net negative. Since most of the ACE in the Pacific basins make up a large part of Earth's total, it really drags global ACE down. Its fairly common concept that El Ninos bring warmth and moist background state to the global budget overall, while Ninas do reverse that course. That's a good starting point I think for the bigger picture.

[gatorcane]

Keep in mind the strongest cyclones in the Atlantic basin the last four seasons have developed quite a bit after the Sept 10th peak. I am thinking of Sandy, Gonzalo, Joaquin, and Matthew. So even by mid August, we won't know what September or October will bring let alone the rest of August. I don't personally trust the upgraded models beyond about a week if not more like 5 days out. I am quite confident the Atlantic will wake up in August but I wouldn't assume 384 hour GFS runs showing nothing at this point are any indicator whatsoever.

[Yellow Evan]

What's going on is that it is only July 30. Not exactly concerning that it's so quiet. Jeez imagine how much season cancelling would happen if the season was pushed to May 1 and we'd have 3 months of these sort of conversations.

[Alyono]

a note about 2013: That is NOT the opposite of 2005. 1983 or perhaps 1994 up until November, that is the opposite of a 2005

2013 had conditions quite favorable for genesis. It was just that developed TCs couldn't do anything, or they ran into land IMMEDIATELY after developing.

In 1983 and through October of 1994, VERY FEW systems even developed. Those that did, did not last long because of where they developed, or due to the conditions

2013 is more of the opposite of a 1996 or a 1999

now, given that we may not have nearly as many waves as I thought, given the fact that shear in the tropical Atlantic should be low, I could see a 1999 type repeat where we have few storms, but high quality ones that lead to the season being hyperactive. A different season than I initially saw

[Hammy]

What's going on is that it is only July 30. Not exactly concerning that it's so quiet. Jeez imagine how much season cancelling would happen if the season was pushed to May 1 and we'd have 3 months of these sort of conversations.

My question was curiousity based on some of the experts here, not season cancel--I'm still expecting 2015 minus El Nino unless we get to the end of August with little to no activity.

[TheStormExpert]

a note about 2013: That is NOT the opposite of 2005. 1983 or perhaps 1994 up until November, that is the opposite of a 2005

2013 had conditions quite favorable for genesis. It was just that developed TCs couldn't do anything, or they ran into land IMMEDIATELY after developing.

In 1983 and through October of 1994, VERY FEW systems even developed. Those that did, did not last long because of where they developed, or due to the conditions

2013 is more of the opposite of a 1996 or a 1999

now, given that we may not have nearly as many waves as I thought, given the fact that shear in the tropical Atlantic should be low, I could see a 1999 type repeat where we have few storms, but high quality ones that lead to the season being hyperactive. A different season than I initially saw

Lack of AEW's doesn't seem to be the problem (at least to me) it's whatever lacking environmental condition that isn't present across the Atlantic or even globally to a lesser extent that seems to be the inhibiting factor.

Btw, what kind of season were you initially thinking this could've been?

[tolakram]

I'll ask it again,

what has changed to make this season slower than initially thought? A GFS 10 day prediction doesn't count, I mean real conditions. Every few days we go through this, it's getting old.

[Hammy]

I'll ask it again,

what has changed to make this season slower than initially thought? A GFS 10 day prediction doesn't count, I mean real conditions. Every few days we go through this, it's getting old.

I was looking at the global picture as pointed out by a few others, and inquiring about it--I'm good at picking things out on satellite and would like to think I'm at least not terrible at forecasting storms, but due to what happened 2013 was really the first year I paid detailed attention to the global background conditions or other basins--so given the W Pac's low activity, that raised a few questions (so I know the implications in the future, as my personal dataset is only a few years) as otherwise there aren't any overpowering indicators one way or another. I mentioned 2013 mainly as there were larger global things going on outside of what we normally look at.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Here's an idea. Go back to page 35-45 on this subforum and read all the people that thought 2010 would be a bust. The experts were gonna fail, the ITCZ was flat, there was so much dry air, and models showed nothing. 2010 ended as the third most active season on record.

Not every season starts in earnest early, and most of you here know better than to start casting doubt on the state of the season before July has even ended. If the third week of August rolls around and it's dead with no signs of development, then we can talk. Until then, have a little patience.

[Alyono]

I'll ask it again,

what has changed to make this season slower than initially thought? A GFS 10 day prediction doesn't count, I mean real conditions. Every few days we go through this, it's getting old.

what has changed is nearly every system WORLD WIDE, under performing projections. That, along with the significantly below normal SHEM season, leads me to believe this is a year of depressed global activity. Something I was not considering when I made my nearly 200 ACE forecast

I'd still bet on at least 150 ACE though. I am just having second thoughts. I was expecting at least one long track storm in July based upon the long range models that are used when making seasonal forecasts. Conditions simply have not been as favorable as I thought

[cycloneye]

The tripole is clear.

@MichaelRLowry
Not surprisingly, comparing this July to two years ago shows a noticeably warmer tropical Atlantic in 2017.



 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/891748169796788224

[Hammy]

I'll ask it again,

what has changed to make this season slower than initially thought? A GFS 10 day prediction doesn't count, I mean real conditions. Every few days we go through this, it's getting old.

what has changed is nearly every system WORLD WIDE, under performing projections. That, along with the significantly below normal SHEM season, leads me to believe this is a year of depressed global activity. Something I was not considering when I made my nearly 200 ACE forecast

I'd still bet on at least 150 ACE though. I am just having second thoughts. I was expecting at least one long track storm in July based upon the long range models that are used when making seasonal forecasts. Conditions simply have not been as favorable as I thought

If global activity does end up being below normal in the end, is there anything in particular you can see that would be the cause?

[Alyono]

I'll ask it again,

what has changed to make this season slower than initially thought? A GFS 10 day prediction doesn't count, I mean real conditions. Every few days we go through this, it's getting old.

what has changed is nearly every system WORLD WIDE, under performing projections. That, along with the significantly below normal SHEM season, leads me to believe this is a year of depressed global activity. Something I was not considering when I made my nearly 200 ACE forecast

I'd still bet on at least 150 ACE though. I am just having second thoughts. I was expecting at least one long track storm in July based upon the long range models that are used when making seasonal forecasts. Conditions simply have not been as favorable as I thought

If global activity does end up being below normal in the end, is there anything in particular you can see that would be the cause?

As I said earlier, that's beyond my expertise. All I could do is hypothesize