2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The conversations taking place on this thread is giving me late-July 2010 deja vu.

[AxaltaRacing24]

The conversations taking place on this thread is giving me late-July 2010 deja vu.

Agreed. This smells like 2004/2010.

[KAlexPR]

The conversations taking place on this thread is giving me late-July 2010 deja vu.

Yep, we can go through many quiet periods like this every year and some will just never learn patience... especially when past hurricane seasons have already shown what can happen.

[NDG]

something to consider since there is a distinct global depression in TC activity

is the heat distribution between the tropics and the poles more equal the normal? If so, that will have a major suppression on TCs as a TCs function is to redistribute heat from the tropics to the poles. This is not my area of expertise so I will have to defer to others on this question

From my amateur point of view I am not a big believer of this theory. What happens to the hurricanes that never track out of the deep tropics, for example the majority that form over in the eastern Pacific. most of them die out over the cooler waters barely getting to extra-tropical waters.
I think hurricanes is a good way of mother nature cooling down the tropics but not that their main development is to transfer heat from the tropics to the poles, that's probably more of the role of extra-tropical systems in the mid latitudes, IMO.

[Alyono]

something to consider since there is a distinct global depression in TC activity

is the heat distribution between the tropics and the poles more equal the normal? If so, that will have a major suppression on TCs as a TCs function is to redistribute heat from the tropics to the poles. This is not my area of expertise so I will have to defer to others on this question

From my amateur point of view I am not a big believer of this theory. What happens to the hurricanes that never track out of the deep tropics, for example the majority that form over in the eastern Pacific. most of them die out over the cooler waters barely getting to extra-tropical waters.
I think hurricanes is a good way of mother nature cooling down the tropics but not that their main development is to transfer heat from the tropics to the poles, that's probably more of the role of extra-tropical systems in the mid latitudes, IMO.

mid latitude cyclones do not reach the tropics as much as tropical cyclones reach the higher latitudes

Also, the EPAC cyclones do redistribute heat from the much warmer tropics to the cooler mid latitudes. The air is substantially cooler over those cool waters. Thus, there is an atmospsheric imbalance that the TCs are trying to balance

[Ntxw]

Tropical cyclones are smaller features of a larger process, the Hadley Cell, that is a cycle for this balance. That is a good place to start.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hadley_cell

[AtlanticWind]

I never like the wording that tropical cyclones serve to redistribute heat out of the tropics.
I don't think that a weather system is doing something out design.

Tropical weather systems form from atmospheric conditions and if they
remove heat from the tropics that is a byproduct.

The atmosphere is complex fluid dynamics and we can only hope
we are not messing things up to much with our emissions.

[NDG]

something to consider since there is a distinct global depression in TC activity

is the heat distribution between the tropics and the poles more equal the normal? If so, that will have a major suppression on TCs as a TCs function is to redistribute heat from the tropics to the poles. This is not my area of expertise so I will have to defer to others on this question

From my amateur point of view I am not a big believer of this theory. What happens to the hurricanes that never track out of the deep tropics, for example the majority that form over in the eastern Pacific. most of them die out over the cooler waters barely getting to extra-tropical waters.
I think hurricanes is a good way of mother nature cooling down the tropics but not that their main development is to transfer heat from the tropics to the poles, that's probably more of the role of extra-tropical systems in the mid latitudes, IMO.

mid latitude cyclones do not reach the tropics as much as tropical cyclones reach the higher latitudes

Also, the EPAC cyclones do redistribute heat from the much warmer tropics to the cooler mid latitudes. The air is substantially cooler over those cool waters. Thus, there is an atmospsheric imbalance that the TCs are trying to balance

So perhaps it should be said that hurricanes balance the atmospheric imbalance not that they redistribute heat from the tropics to the poles since many of them if not the majority of them never reach the high latitudes.

[NDG]

Tropical cyclones are smaller features of a larger process, the Hadley Cell, that is a cycle for this balance. That is a good place to start.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hadley_cell

This makes more sense to me that they are part of a larger process of the Hadley Cell effect.

[tarheelprogrammer]

From what I am seeing another strong front pushed very far south bringing with it colder temps, and a Noreaster just spun off of the NE coast. So, my thinking is we never truly left the winter pattern. I am not sure what year also had that issue or if many did. That is why I am now down on this hurricane season. Models continue that pattern of blasting the western part of the basin into the Caribbean with shear and dry air. I am not impatient, I am simply observing the pattern people are talking about. I am not saying season over, but unless there is a change in the overall scheme then this season will be a dud.

[Hammy]

From what I am seeing another strong front pushed very far south bringing with it colder temps, and a Noreaster just spun off of the NE coast. So, my thinking is we never truly left the winter pattern. I am not sure what year also had that issue or if many did. That is why I am now down on this hurricane season. Models continue that pattern of blasting the western part of the basin into the Caribbean with shear and dry air. I am not impatient, I am simply observing the pattern people are talking about. I am not saying season over, but unless there is a change in the overall scheme then this season will be a dud.

2013 was a year that truly never left winter/spring. This year is quite different as the east was much above normal during June and much of July--especially here in Georgia. And aside from the Caribbean (thanks to lingering warmer EPAC waters) the Atlantic has been below normal in shear and been generally more moist than the average for the two months.

[abajan]

The conversations taking place on this thread is giving me late-July 2010 deja vu.

Happens like clockwork every hurricane season. You get used to it after being around here a while.

[Steve]

The conversations taking place on this thread is giving me late-July 2010 deja vu.

Happens like clockwork every hurricane season. You get used to it after being around here a while.

It's annoying to me. When posters have been around for a few years and continue to do it, or when the same poster posts it every other day or so (also clockwork), it just gets old. People should probably be on medication or get additional hobbies.

[Hammy]

Almost half of this page is complaints about other posters, rather than any on-topic discussion...

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Question to anyone who may know: Is there any way without manually calculating it to find the season-to-date ACE on average or for any given year on particular dates?

[AutoPenalti]

Seems like we are in a bit of a lull right now so I thought, since we were talking about that CCKW wave earlier, this would ease the thread a bit.

 https://twitter.com/wx_tiger/status/891680244922560513

[Ntxw]

Almost half of this page is complaints about other posters, rather than any on-topic discussion...

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Question to anyone who may know: Is there any way without manually calculating it to find the season-to-date ACE on average or for any given year on particular dates?

I don't know of any readily made available resource for that besides manually calculating. Perhaps one of us can put together such data and would be a great reference for the forum if someone wants to do it. Would be worthy of pinning.

As far as ACE, Ryan Maue had created a reference of storms up till 2012 if you want something ready made. Just add the storms for the year/dates you need.

http://policlimate.com/tropical/atlantic_storms_ace_maxw.dat

CSU also has a good ACE and stats archives page

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?arch&loc=northatlantic

Also general page there for basin statistics

http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

[RL3AO]

Almost half of this page is complaints about other posters, rather than any on-topic discussion...

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Question to anyone who may know: Is there any way without manually calculating it to find the season-to-date ACE on average or for any given year on particular dates?

I've seen a few people with spreadsheets showing the average year to date ACE. I can probably code that up pretty quickly.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

The conversations taking place on this thread is giving me late-July 2010 deja vu.

Happens like clockwork every hurricane season. You get used to it after being around here a while.

It's annoying to me. When posters have been around for a few years and continue to do it, or when the same poster posts it every other day or so (also clockwork), it just gets old. People should probably be on medication or get additional hobbies.

To play devil's advocate it's honestly not much different than the ones that constantly parrot wait 2 more weeks then the lid will come off, no wait 3 more, no next month then the lid will definitely come off.

[Hammy]

Those should be helpful, thank you. One thing I'm trying to do, is I have spreadsheets and such (somewhere) with various averages and statistics for the Atlantic that I use as reference, and since ACE has come up more recently I was going to go back and see at what points 50% of ACE occurred after, especially since there seem to be quite a few back-loaded seasons.

To play devil's advocate it's honestly not much different than the ones that constantly parrot wait 2 more weeks then the lid will come off, no wait 3 more, no next month then the lid will definitely come off.

I think this helps feed skeptics when things don't occur, honestly. Personally I just set my "start date" so to speak around August 20 (give or take a few days)--if it's going to be active it almost always starts by that point--since 1995, nearly three quarters of seasons (even somewhat less active ones) took off about that point. Unless we're storm-free by that point (or excessively active) I don't usually assume one way or another without some clear ENSO event on the horizon.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Yeah I've just been sitting back waiting for things to change watching the back and forth. Usually by now we begin seeing signs of things changing but not much to get excited about in the foreseeable future. A couple of weak short lived systems in the early season means nothing. In fact I based my prediction numbers on having 4 this season which would help up the numbers to push the season in the above average range. But without those was thinking it would be near normal. The gulf is just as inhospitable as it was when Cindy was out there. As long as we have all this shear and dry air out there not much to worry about as 98L and Cindy has shown.