2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[GCANE]

00Z 7/30/17 GFS has it as a 1009mb Low off the coast.
Develops it to 1002mb in 42 hrs off CV islands.
Takes it to the islands in 162 hrs where it looks like it ingests dry air from the 1025 mb Bermuda High.
Could be touch and go.
If it survives and steers into the Bahamas, a lot of high Theta-E air could re-energize it with dropping 355K PV.
Looks like sheer in the Bahamas could clear out at 198 hrs.

[chaser1]

GFS is showing little, if any vorticity in the Atlantic in mid August

yeah, I'm starting to question my thoughts of a hyperactive season

Really?? That's odd, and here I'm kicking myself for not last moment "upping" my already vigorous season prediction?

[Hammy]

Euro backing off from any further EPAC development, which could be an indication that conditions may start improving in the western Atlantic and Caribbean.

Edit: Euro showing decent waves emerging on Jul 31, Aug 3, and Aug 7, while the GFS is showing practically nothing of significance after the next wave until Aug 15--I'm starting to think the model update went too far in the opposite direction of the previous GFS.

[Kingarabian]

EPS hinting at a WGOM system in the long range. GFS has it in the same time frame. Looks like a weak TS.

[AtlanticWind]

Canadian has a powerful hurricane in the Gulf.


Just thinking if the CMC was always right we would have a trillion dollars in damage every year.

[Steve]

Canadian has a powerful hurricane in the Gulf.


Just thinking if the CMC was always right we would have a trillion dollars in damage every year.

That's a beast. Looks like AL/FL. That's 10 Days and ends maybe 48-60 hours before landfall. In recent seasons, the CMC has tended to hit one storm or so before everyone else. That's anecdotal from me watching, because there is no way I'm going back to research posts to find out. And I doubt any global 9-10 days out unless most of them are on board with a pattern storm. But we will see by next weekend if it sniffed out a legitimate threat.

[Hammy]

One interesting note with the end of the GFS run, is it's starting to indicate the stronger and larger low pressure systems coming off closer to 20N (instead of 25N) and I believe it's those lows that have been bringing the SAL outbreaks and end up developing later in the season once they come off further south. This would line up with the week 4 ramp-up.

[LarryWx]

Canadian has a powerful hurricane in the Gulf.


Just thinking if the CMC was always right we would have a trillion dollars in damage every year.

That's a beast. Looks like AL/FL. That's 10 Days and ends maybe 48-60 hours before landfall. In recent seasons, the CMC has tended to hit one storm or so before everyone else. That's anecdotal from me watching, because there is no way I'm going back to research posts to find out. And I doubt any global 9-10 days out unless most of them are on board with a pattern storm. But we will see by next weekend if it sniffed out a legitimate threat.

The main problem with the CMC imo is that it doesn't see significant shear as being nearly as detrimental to development as it really is. I figured this out last season when I noticed it had many geneses despite significant shear and no development amongst the GFS, Euro, and UKMET. It was almost always wrong in these cases.

[Steve]

Oh it is for sure. But it calmed down in 2016 compared to the previous 10-12 years. It's most likely wrong.

[AxaltaRacing24]

00z Euro shows clear signs of the lid coming off on the Atl in early/mid August. Will have to see if it plays out.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro shows clear signs of the lid coming off on the Atl in early/mid August. Will have to see if it plays out.

A sheared TS in the GOM is not a lid coming off.

[cycloneye]

00z Euro shows clear signs of the lid coming off on the Atl in early/mid August. Will have to see if it plays out.

A sheared TS in the GOM is not a lid coming off.

I think he was refering to the one down in SE Caribbean.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro shows clear signs of the lid coming off on the Atl in early/mid August. Will have to see if it plays out.

A sheared TS in the GOM is not a lid coming off.

I think he was refering to the one down in SE Caribbean.

[img]http://i.imgur.com/hebiB4A.png[/mg]

Ooh. Well even that has 40kts of shear in the eastern Caribbean and 70kts of shear in the western Caribbean waiting for it per the 00z Euro. Tough outting for these systems it seems.

[jlauderdal]

told you nothing would form until after the 15th....

[Blown Away]

Nada on 06z GFS accept for nice TS over Africa on August 16th...

[TheStormExpert]

Can't recall how many times the GFS last season forecasted a developed TC to form over Western Africa but it never materialized.

[gatorcane]

and just like that GFS shows some development of a wave to move off Africa deep in the MDR in the medium range where it had not much on the previous run. Looks like development around 5-6 days from now. Lid may be on the way off, welcome to August everybody.

[Siker]

and just like that GFS shows some development of a wave to move off Africa deep in the MDR in the medium range where it had not much on the previous run. Looks like development around 5-6 days from now. Lid may be on the way off, welcome to August everybody.

That would be the wave moving off Wednesday that some have hinted would have a better chance to take advantage of the CCKW than the preceding waves we / the NHC have been discussing.

[gatorcane]

Looks like a strong TS approaching Lesser Antilles at hour 180 on 12Z GFS

[Ivanhater]

Everytime we get something on the global models, they are very small.