2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[NDG]

Euro is forecasting for the Bermuda ridge to get stronger over the next few days, despite the next trough across the eastern US.
Exactly what I have been saying in the 98L thread.

[Steve]

Happens like clockwork every hurricane season. You get used to it after being around here a while.

It's annoying to me. When posters have been around for a few years and continue to do it, or when the same poster posts it every other day or so (also clockwork), it just gets old. People should probably be on medication or get additional hobbies.

To play devil's advocate it's honestly not much different than the ones that constantly parrot wait 2 more weeks then the lid will come off, no wait 3 more, no next month then the lid will definitely come off.

For sure. But we did have some pretty late seasons plus it's July 30. If I don't see jack on the models in 2 weeks it doesn't mean anything to me. Only thing that would ever get me to post a season cancel in July is if we were heading to a raging El Niño or had a major volcanic eruption. I think I predicted 11 or 12 and an average season. But chances are, and I'll put money on it should anyone be game, this season will get into the teens. How many? I don't know. That's 9 to go and 4 months but essentially 3 months.

And I'd add that anyone overhyping (which I haven't seen) would also be guilty of acting on impulse and their emotions. Obviously I'm not referring to you or Hammy.

[Hurricaneman]

The Euro seems to show a more favorable pattern by the 8th while the GFS is showing diddly squat so who knows which way it will go but by late month I believe those season cancel posts will look silly and we must be patient as the average season doesn't ramp up until mid to late August and here are some examples

2004. August 9th
1998. August 20th
1999. August 24th
2010. August 22nd

[slamdaddy]

its all good man...chill...its coming.

[RL3AO]

Is there any way without manually calculating it to find the season-to-date ACE on average

This is what I got using the 1950 to 2016 dataset. This would be the average ACE in the Atlantic as of the listed date.

Code: Select all

01 Jun = 0.84
02 Jun = 0.86
03 Jun = 0.89
04 Jun = 0.97
05 Jun = 1.04
06 Jun = 1.11
07 Jun = 1.2
08 Jun = 1.3
09 Jun = 1.38
10 Jun = 1.43
11 Jun = 1.48
12 Jun = 1.54
13 Jun = 1.58
14 Jun = 1.62
15 Jun = 1.66
16 Jun = 1.7
17 Jun = 1.73
18 Jun = 1.76
19 Jun = 1.81
20 Jun = 1.87
21 Jun = 1.91
22 Jun = 1.98
23 Jun = 2.05
24 Jun = 2.11
25 Jun = 2.24
26 Jun = 2.36
27 Jun = 2.44
28 Jun = 2.47
29 Jun = 2.52
30 Jun = 2.62
01 Jul = 2.69
02 Jul = 2.76
03 Jul = 2.85
04 Jul = 2.95
05 Jul = 3.02
06 Jul = 3.11
07 Jul = 3.21
08 Jul = 3.41
09 Jul = 3.6
10 Jul = 3.83
11 Jul = 4.0
12 Jul = 4.16
13 Jul = 4.32
14 Jul = 4.49
15 Jul = 4.67
16 Jul = 4.86
17 Jul = 5.04
18 Jul = 5.21
19 Jul = 5.37
20 Jul = 5.57
21 Jul = 5.72
22 Jul = 5.84
23 Jul = 5.97
24 Jul = 6.15
25 Jul = 6.3
26 Jul = 6.39
27 Jul = 6.52
28 Jul = 6.66
29 Jul = 6.79
30 Jul = 6.87
31 Jul = 6.98
01 Aug = 7.15
02 Aug = 7.38
03 Aug = 7.69
04 Aug = 7.97
05 Aug = 8.34
06 Aug = 8.79
07 Aug = 9.19
08 Aug = 9.62
09 Aug = 10.05
10 Aug = 10.5
11 Aug = 10.82
12 Aug = 11.2
13 Aug = 11.65
14 Aug = 12.19
15 Aug = 12.85
16 Aug = 13.57
17 Aug = 14.36
18 Aug = 15.22
19 Aug = 16.01
20 Aug = 16.83
21 Aug = 17.62
22 Aug = 18.38
23 Aug = 19.13
24 Aug = 20.09
25 Aug = 21.04
26 Aug = 22.09
27 Aug = 23.24
28 Aug = 24.62
29 Aug = 26.05
30 Aug = 27.66
31 Aug = 29.57
01 Sep = 31.55
02 Sep = 33.69
03 Sep = 35.66
04 Sep = 37.43
05 Sep = 39.2
06 Sep = 40.97
07 Sep = 42.84
08 Sep = 44.81
09 Sep = 46.89
10 Sep = 48.91
11 Sep = 50.89
12 Sep = 52.66
13 Sep = 54.6
14 Sep = 56.58
15 Sep = 58.72
16 Sep = 60.7
17 Sep = 62.45
18 Sep = 64.05
19 Sep = 65.43
20 Sep = 66.71
21 Sep = 67.82
22 Sep = 68.95
23 Sep = 69.94
24 Sep = 70.97
25 Sep = 72.21
26 Sep = 73.41
27 Sep = 74.66
28 Sep = 75.91
29 Sep = 77.11
30 Sep = 78.05
01 Oct = 79.07
02 Oct = 80.31
03 Oct = 81.43
04 Oct = 82.41
05 Oct = 83.25
06 Oct = 84.06
07 Oct = 84.79
08 Oct = 85.5
09 Oct = 86.11
10 Oct = 86.72
11 Oct = 87.23
12 Oct = 87.65
13 Oct = 88.04
14 Oct = 88.54
15 Oct = 89.14
16 Oct = 89.72
17 Oct = 90.35
18 Oct = 90.95
19 Oct = 91.49
20 Oct = 92.05
21 Oct = 92.5
22 Oct = 92.86
23 Oct = 93.19
24 Oct = 93.55
25 Oct = 94.07
26 Oct = 94.54
27 Oct = 94.99
28 Oct = 95.4
29 Oct = 95.76
30 Oct = 96.15
31 Oct = 96.4
01 Nov = 96.5
02 Nov = 96.6
03 Nov = 96.71
04 Nov = 96.89
05 Nov = 97.13
06 Nov = 97.32
07 Nov = 97.51
08 Nov = 97.7
09 Nov = 97.91
10 Nov = 98.06
11 Nov = 98.2
12 Nov = 98.27
13 Nov = 98.33
14 Nov = 98.37
15 Nov = 98.45
16 Nov = 98.55
17 Nov = 98.71
18 Nov = 98.89
19 Nov = 99.02
20 Nov = 99.16
21 Nov = 99.33
22 Nov = 99.43
23 Nov = 99.53
24 Nov = 99.64
25 Nov = 99.77
26 Nov = 99.85
27 Nov = 99.96
28 Nov = 100.06
29 Nov = 100.13
30 Nov = 100.2
01 Dec = 100.25
02 Dec = 100.29
03 Dec = 100.34
04 Dec = 100.37
05 Dec = 100.42
06 Dec = 100.46
07 Dec = 100.51
08 Dec = 100.56
09 Dec = 100.59
10 Dec = 100.62
11 Dec = 100.62
12 Dec = 100.63
13 Dec = 100.63
14 Dec = 100.63
15 Dec = 100.63
16 Dec = 100.63
17 Dec = 100.63
18 Dec = 100.63
19 Dec = 100.63
20 Dec = 100.63
21 Dec = 100.65
22 Dec = 100.68
23 Dec = 100.71
24 Dec = 100.72
25 Dec = 100.73
26 Dec = 100.73
27 Dec = 100.73
28 Dec = 100.73
29 Dec = 100.73
30 Dec = 100.74
31 Dec = 100.77

And this would be the average ACE per calendar day during the 1950 to 2016 range. Another way to look at when the peak of the season is. I thought it was interesting how quickly the switch gets turned on during the first week of August.

Code: Select all

01 Jun = 0.02
02 Jun = 0.03
03 Jun = 0.03
04 Jun = 0.08
05 Jun = 0.07
06 Jun = 0.07
07 Jun = 0.09
08 Jun = 0.1
09 Jun = 0.08
10 Jun = 0.05
11 Jun = 0.05
12 Jun = 0.05
13 Jun = 0.04
14 Jun = 0.04
15 Jun = 0.04
16 Jun = 0.04
17 Jun = 0.03
18 Jun = 0.03
19 Jun = 0.05
20 Jun = 0.06
21 Jun = 0.04
22 Jun = 0.07
23 Jun = 0.07
24 Jun = 0.06
25 Jun = 0.13
26 Jun = 0.12
27 Jun = 0.09
28 Jun = 0.02
29 Jun = 0.05
30 Jun = 0.1
01 Jul = 0.07
02 Jul = 0.07
03 Jul = 0.1
04 Jul = 0.1
05 Jul = 0.07
06 Jul = 0.08
07 Jul = 0.1
08 Jul = 0.2
09 Jul = 0.2
10 Jul = 0.22
11 Jul = 0.17
12 Jul = 0.16
13 Jul = 0.16
14 Jul = 0.17
15 Jul = 0.18
16 Jul = 0.18
17 Jul = 0.19
18 Jul = 0.17
19 Jul = 0.16
20 Jul = 0.2
21 Jul = 0.16
22 Jul = 0.12
23 Jul = 0.13
24 Jul = 0.18
25 Jul = 0.15
26 Jul = 0.09
27 Jul = 0.13
28 Jul = 0.14
29 Jul = 0.14
30 Jul = 0.08
31 Jul = 0.12
01 Aug = 0.17
02 Aug = 0.23
03 Aug = 0.3
04 Aug = 0.28
05 Aug = 0.37
06 Aug = 0.45
07 Aug = 0.4
08 Aug = 0.43
09 Aug = 0.43
10 Aug = 0.45
11 Aug = 0.31
12 Aug = 0.39
13 Aug = 0.45
14 Aug = 0.54
15 Aug = 0.66
16 Aug = 0.72
17 Aug = 0.79
18 Aug = 0.86
19 Aug = 0.79
20 Aug = 0.82
21 Aug = 0.79
22 Aug = 0.75
23 Aug = 0.75
24 Aug = 0.96
25 Aug = 0.95
26 Aug = 1.05
27 Aug = 1.15
28 Aug = 1.38
29 Aug = 1.43
30 Aug = 1.61
31 Aug = 1.91
01 Sep = 1.98
02 Sep = 2.14
03 Sep = 1.97
04 Sep = 1.77
05 Sep = 1.77
06 Sep = 1.77
07 Sep = 1.87
08 Sep = 1.98
09 Sep = 2.07
10 Sep = 2.02
11 Sep = 1.98
12 Sep = 1.77
13 Sep = 1.94
14 Sep = 1.99
15 Sep = 2.14
16 Sep = 1.98
17 Sep = 1.75
18 Sep = 1.6
19 Sep = 1.38
20 Sep = 1.28
21 Sep = 1.11
22 Sep = 1.13
23 Sep = 0.99
24 Sep = 1.03
25 Sep = 1.23
26 Sep = 1.2
27 Sep = 1.25
28 Sep = 1.25
29 Sep = 1.2
30 Sep = 0.95
01 Oct = 1.01
02 Oct = 1.24
03 Oct = 1.13
04 Oct = 0.98
05 Oct = 0.84
06 Oct = 0.81
07 Oct = 0.73
08 Oct = 0.7
09 Oct = 0.62
10 Oct = 0.61
11 Oct = 0.51
12 Oct = 0.41
13 Oct = 0.39
14 Oct = 0.5
15 Oct = 0.6
16 Oct = 0.58
17 Oct = 0.62
18 Oct = 0.61
19 Oct = 0.54
20 Oct = 0.56
21 Oct = 0.45
22 Oct = 0.36
23 Oct = 0.33
24 Oct = 0.36
25 Oct = 0.52
26 Oct = 0.48
27 Oct = 0.45
28 Oct = 0.41
29 Oct = 0.36
30 Oct = 0.38
31 Oct = 0.25
01 Nov = 0.1
02 Nov = 0.1
03 Nov = 0.11
04 Nov = 0.18
05 Nov = 0.25
06 Nov = 0.19
07 Nov = 0.18
08 Nov = 0.2
09 Nov = 0.2
10 Nov = 0.16
11 Nov = 0.14
12 Nov = 0.06
13 Nov = 0.06
14 Nov = 0.04
15 Nov = 0.08
16 Nov = 0.09
17 Nov = 0.16
18 Nov = 0.18
19 Nov = 0.12
20 Nov = 0.15
21 Nov = 0.16
22 Nov = 0.1
23 Nov = 0.1
24 Nov = 0.11
25 Nov = 0.13
26 Nov = 0.08
27 Nov = 0.11
28 Nov = 0.1
29 Nov = 0.06
30 Nov = 0.07
01 Dec = 0.05
02 Dec = 0.05
03 Dec = 0.05
04 Dec = 0.03
05 Dec = 0.05
06 Dec = 0.04
07 Dec = 0.05
08 Dec = 0.04
09 Dec = 0.04
10 Dec = 0.02
11 Dec = 0.01
12 Dec = 0.01
13 Dec = 0.0
14 Dec = 0.0
15 Dec = 0.0
16 Dec = 0.0
17 Dec = 0.0
18 Dec = 0.0
19 Dec = 0.0
20 Dec = 0.0
21 Dec = 0.01
22 Dec = 0.03
23 Dec = 0.03
24 Dec = 0.02
25 Dec = 0.0
26 Dec = 0.0
27 Dec = 0.0
28 Dec = 0.0
29 Dec = 0.0
30 Dec = 0.01
31 Dec = 0.03

[Alyono]

one other oddity is that the strongest WPAC storms are occurring at higher latitudes this year via tropical transition instead of coming from the monsoon trough or easterly waves

[Hurricaneman]

one other oddity is that the strongest WPAC storms are occurring at higher latitudes this year via tropical transition instead of coming from the monsoon trough or easterly waves

Could have something to do with the easterly trade winds in the Pacific moving the development area farther north, usually that's a good indication the the Atlantic could be active when the time comes

[AtlanticWind]

Actually it's kind of funny with all the where are the storms talk, My observations have had me thinking we could
be looking at an extremely active season. It is looking more certain that we will not have an el niño, atlantic
sea surface temperatures have remained well above normal and Shear has seemed to be below normal.
As the SAL should normally weaken in the next few weeks I expect we are going to see quite a few hurricanes
in the next 3 months. Just an opinion.

[Hammy]

@RL3AO: thank you, that's exactly what I was looking for.

[tolakram]

The Caribbean is already showing improving conditions, and overall shear has been near normal so far. The southern Caribbean is typically hostile this time of year, aka the graveyard.



from: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=

The front moving into the Gulf is causing all kinds of shear but I think it will be interesting to see what gets left behind. It will take a week or so for things to wash out, IMO.

[WeatherEmperor]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/8 ... 6612247552


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[srainhoutx]

The ECMWF EPS longer range continues to suggest lowering pressures across the Central Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico after the strong CCKW passes next week.

[Emmett_Brown]

Interesting that just as the CCKW was forecast to enter the Atlantic basin, we got a little action with the GOM home brew. Not a big storm, but convection sustained it enough for classification even in the face of shear.

[Steve]

Interesting that just as the CCKW was forecast to enter the Atlantic basin, we got a little action with the GOM home brew. Not a big storm, but convection sustained it enough for classification even in the face of shear.

It may not be the last of the close in lows for this pulse either. I don't think anything gets super strong, but we'll still have another low in the Gulf, probably stronger if Emily moves out into the Atlantic, and possibly another coastal low off the SE US Coast behind Emily (maybe one in front of her too).

2013 indeed.

[Steve]

NOAA has today's SSTA map. It looks like the majority of the southern basin and Gulf are running 1-2C+. The water is only cooler than normal along the SE Coast (GA/FL) and around New England and Newfoundland also just along the coast. That's a little different but there is still plenty of warmer than average water to the east of that.

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/anomwnc.gif

Dynamical MJO Forecast (only showing the ones dated July 31) shows that we're currently in Phase 7 right outside the circle. NCPE has it moving into the circle tomorrow, going to the base of 6 within the circle and then migrating over to 8 then over to 2 and 3. 8 is favorable for the Western Hemisphere. If this is right, MJO is back in 7 in 6 and 7 days and moves into 8 next Tuesday. NCPB slides back to 6, then back to 7 and makes a loop. NCPO moves back into the circle and emerges out in just under 2 weeks in Phase 2. CMET slides back into the circle and then into Phases 4 and 5 over the course of the next 2 weeks. ECMF slides down into the circle, crosses, 6 and 5 then loops back into 4. JMAN does about the same thing. TCWB goes back in the circle tomorrow, comes out at 5, goes into 6 and gets almost to the edge of the chart ( <--- thinking this can't be right, and the amplification that would ensue might allow for a pattern storm anyway even though 6 isn't that favorable).

[SFLcane]

boom!!

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/892084923842088960

[WeatherEmperor]

boom!!

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/892084923842088960

I see. Very interesting


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[Hammy]

Interesting that just as the CCKW was forecast to enter the Atlantic basin, we got a little action with the GOM home brew. Not a big storm, but convection sustained it enough for classification even in the face of shear.

It may not be the last of the close in lows for this pulse either. I don't think anything gets super strong, but we'll still have another low in the Gulf, probably stronger if Emily moves out into the Atlantic, and possibly another coastal low off the SE US Coast behind Emily (maybe one in front of her too).

2013 indeed.

Sounds similar to the 2002 setup--I remember three storms forming off the Southeast over the course of a week from the same trough in early September (Fay, Gustav, Hanna).

[Steve]

Yeah 2002 did feature that. We got a piece of Fay while it was ingesting Eduardo. When that passed through the rain went from falling to dumping for a short time. I think that was a stronger El Niño year, but it definitely had some Western bias.

[tolakram]

My amateur opinion is that fronts all the way into the gulf in late July or early August are cause for concern, not signs a season will be a dud. From what I can tell all that's happened when a front enters the gulf this early in the season is that development is delayed, perhaps the 'start' of the heart of the season is delayed but what's left is just more focus for formation. The models may be showing us this now with another gulf storm possible in the long range.

Regardless, I doubt this season will be a complete failure so the question is ... where will the first major form and will it hit land or recurve. The last thing we want is quick in close development.