2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[TheStormExpert]

Everytime we get something on the global models, they are very small.

I thought most TC's that form from AEW's start out generally small?

[cycloneye]

Wave that GFS develops and ECMWF trys to is the one in West Africa right now.

[gatorcane]

198 hours:

[cycloneye]

Just SW of Guadeloupe.

[Ivanhater]

Weakening pretty rapidly going through the Caribbean

[Hurricaneman]

Weakening pretty rapidly going through the Caribbean

Have to think shear

[PTrackerLA]

12z GFS 240 hrs. Steering pattern looks to send this to the western Caribbean but it's weakening quickly.

[gatorcane]

Weakening pretty rapidly going through the Caribbean

Have to think shear

Do we believe these shear forecasts that far out? Who knows what shear will be like that far out if this develops and heads into the Caribbean.

[SFLcane]

Were's the deep Trof of the eastcoast most have bragging about? Plenty of ridging there

[RL3AO]

Were's the deep Trof of the eastcoast most have bragging about? Plenty of ridging there

Because it turns out the weather pattern over North America on July 30th is not representative of what it will look like in future weeks and months. Shocking I know.

[WeatherEmperor]

12z Canadian does not show the Carib storm the GFS shows.


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[cycloneye]

@RyanMaue
GFS 12z develops a hurricane by Day 7 entering the Caribbean.
It's hurricane season so African easterly waves should all be watched.

 https://twitter.com/DaDaBuh/status/892069734539284481

[RL3AO]

Hmm. The GFS developing a TS/hurricane around August 6th after CCKW passage. It's almost like the thing we've been talking about for 10+ days.

[cycloneye]

@EricBlake12
Total reversal from the fcst a month ago over equatorial Atlantic. Believe @AndyHazelton @TropicalTidbits @philklotzbach talked about this

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/892072177197092864

[WeatherEmperor]

@EricBlake12
Total reversal from the fcst a month ago over equatorial Atlantic. Believe @AndyHazelton @TropicalTidbits @philklotzbach talked about this

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/892072177197092864

What does that mean for the ATL basin?


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[AutoPenalti]

WeatherEmperor it essentially means conditions more favorable.

Thanks for the update!

[SFLcane]

WeatherEmperor it essentially means conditions more favorable.

[Alyono]

given the very small size of the GFS storm, it is PROBABLY convective feedback. I suspect this as the Canadian dropped development in the MDR and the very small size likely means this is purely driven due to the convection in the model

[WeatherEmperor]

12z Euro at 144hrs




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[TheStormExpert]

given the very small size of the GFS storm, it is PROBABLY convective feedback. I suspect this as the Canadian dropped development in the MDR and the very small size likely means this is purely driven due to the convection in the model

Are you sure? The 12z Euro develops it too, same time and place.