2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[SFLcane]

WeatherEmperor see my post in the models thread.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Not everything is about convective feedback. The organization on the GFS looks completely organic (unlike when it had a 6hr tropical storm off Africa yesterday), and the ECMWF is also picking up on the same wave.

[AutoPenalti]

Well he did say "PROBABLY"

Maybe something to keep watch for the next few days, considering now that we are entering the CCKW phase.

[tolakram]

[cycloneye]

12z Euro develops the GFS wave.

[WeatherEmperor]

12z Euro at 192hrs. Very tiny...just like the GFS




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[RL3AO]

I know people are getting sick of talking about it, but it appears to develop about 2 days after the CCKW axis passes. I know there are skeptics about how much these waves do to TC genesis, but this is exactly when and where you'd expect a TC to develop.

[Siker]

Non-identical speed of the wave and ULL formation / location in the vicinity of the wave between the GFS and the Euro, as to be expected this far out.

[Kingarabian]

Begins to weaken in the eastern Caribbean at hour 234.

[WeatherEmperor]

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[Kingarabian]

40-50kt westerlies are all over the Caribbean per the 12z Euro.

[cycloneye]

Euro is a day slower than GFS with the wave. South of PR GFS the 9th vs South of PR Euro 10th.

[WeatherEmperor]

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[Siker]

Looking at Weatherbell graphics it actually seems to be strengthening and pretty well tucked under an anticyclone on the Euro at 240. Weakening in the frames between 216 and 240 though. Too specific this far out.

[TheStormExpert]

40-50kt westerlies are all over the Caribbean per the 12z Euro.

Well it's a slight improvement from the 00z run which had up to 70kts of shear in the W. Caribbean.

[TheStormExpert]

Per the 12z GFS and 12z Euro along with the EPS (Euro) ensembles we may have to closely monitor the Bay of Campeche 10 days from now as well.

12z GFS: 240hrs.




12z Euro: 240hrs.

[Kingarabian]

12z EPS, days 7-10:

BOC System - increased support with 10 members show generally a TS or a hurricane going into Mexico.

MDR/E-Caribb system - very minimal support of anything more than a TD materializing.

[Steve]

Next close in area may be forming now due South of the Mouth of the Mississippi River. None of the mesoscales do much with it but almost all of them show surface low pressure over the next 2-4 days. Probably won't get to TD status, but if it did, that would be the upper limit. I haven't checked mid Gulf buoy data yet but I'll probably give some of those a look tomorrow.

[Stormcenter]

Interesting, we saw how quickly Emily popped up. I would keep a close eye on the area. Thanks Steve


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-loop-vis.html

Next close in area may be forming now due South of the Mouth of the Mississippi River. None of the mesoscales do much with it but almost all of them show surface low pressure over the next 2-4 days. Probably won't get to TD status, but if it did, that would be the upper limit.

[Alyono]

new GFS has significantly lower rainrates with the modelcane it was trying to develop. The result is no surface low is forming this run

Purely convective feedback on the 12Z