2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[Siker]

new GFS has significantly lower rainrates with the modelcane it was trying to develop. The result is no surface low is forming this run

Purely convective feedback on the 12Z

Was the Euro showing legitimate genesis in your opinion? Seemed to be different evolution than the GFS.

[Nimbus]

There is a burst of convection mid gulf fairly low latitude, with the current upper level winds it could end up in the BOC but I'm not sure the models see it yet.

[Alyono]

new GFS has significantly lower rainrates with the modelcane it was trying to develop. The result is no surface low is forming this run

Purely convective feedback on the 12Z

Was the Euro showing legitimate genesis in your opinion? Seemed to be different evolution than the GFS.

I'd need to check out the precip fields to know for sure what is going on. Been too lazy to log into my work computer on an off day that the wife is also off

[Kingarabian]

new GFS has significantly lower rainrates with the modelcane it was trying to develop. The result is no surface low is forming this run

Purely convective feedback on the 12Z

Was the Euro showing legitimate genesis in your opinion? Seemed to be different evolution than the GFS.

I'd need to check out the precip fields to know for sure what is going on. Been too lazy to log into my work computer on an off day that the wife is also off

Something was probably off on that Euro run as well. Had very little ensemble support yet was trying to spin up a TS. At the same time there's a feature in the BOC set to develop that has pretty good ensemble support yet it only has a 1010mb low.

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS has the BOC system stronger at hr 234.

Into Mexico @ hr 252. Need to keep an eye on this one.

[Alyono]

18z GFS has the BOC system stronger at hr 234.

Into Mexico @ hr 252. Need to keep an eye on this one.

I'm not going to get too excited about a 1010mb TD in the BOC in mid August in the long range.

There is also significantly more 12Z EPS support for a TS in the Atlantic than in the BOC. EC official site has a 20-30% chance of a TC in the mid Atlantic and only 10-20% for the BOC. BOC TC probabilities are also MUCH lower than those of the tropical Atlantic

[Kingarabian]

18z GFS has the BOC system stronger at hr 234.

Into Mexico @ hr 252. Need to keep an eye on this one.

I'm not going to get too excited about a 1010mb TD in the BOC in mid August in the long range.

There is also significantly more 12Z EPS support for a TS in the Atlantic than in the BOC. EC official site has a 20-30% chance of a TC in the mid Atlantic and only 10-20% for the BOC. BOC TC probabilities are also MUCH lower than those of the tropical Atlantic

There are EPS members showing mid atlantic development but they're not bunched together and showing low pressures. I saw up to 10 EPS members showing sub 1000mb in the WGOM/BOC @ 12z in 240 hours. That's a pretty moderate signal to say the least.

[Alyono]

18z GFS has the BOC system stronger at hr 234.

Into Mexico @ hr 252. Need to keep an eye on this one.

I'm not going to get too excited about a 1010mb TD in the BOC in mid August in the long range.

There is also significantly more 12Z EPS support for a TS in the Atlantic than in the BOC. EC official site has a 20-30% chance of a TC in the mid Atlantic and only 10-20% for the BOC. BOC TC probabilities are also MUCH lower than those of the tropical Atlantic

There are EPS members showing mid atlantic but they're not bunched together and showing low pressures. I saw up to 10 EPS members showing sub 1000mb in the WGOM/BOC @ 12z in 240 hours. That's a pretty moderate signal to say the least.

the probs on ecmwf.int are showing the Atlantic with a stronger signal. That uses a 300km radius, however, to generate the PDF

[Siker]

18z GEFS has perked up on the wave over Africa, 8 members with at least a TD versus the 1-2 of past runs.

[Kingarabian]

18z GEFS has perked up on the wave over Africa, 8 members with at least a TD versus the 1-2 of past runs.

Too bad the GEFS for some reason have been brutally bad.

[Steve]

Interesting, we saw how quickly Emily popped up. I would keep a close eye on the area. Thanks Steve


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/h5-loop-vis.html

Next close in area may be forming now due South of the Mouth of the Mississippi River. None of the mesoscales do much with it but almost all of them show surface low pressure over the next 2-4 days. Probably won't get to TD status, but if it did, that would be the upper limit.

For sure. I think the front is interacting with a surface trough. That's probably the focusing mechanism. Not sure if it will become tropical or anything, but we'll see how the MESOSCALE models interpret around 10:00pm.

[Hammy]

GFS is starting to show a fairly strong wave coming off around 15N around the third week of August, after a succession of moistening waves, rather than the larger dry waves (associated with the SAL outbreaks?) that we've been seeing around 20N. Not that this wave will develop (or even exist in that specific timeframe) but definitely a big change near the end of the run vs what we've been seeing.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Evening I know it's the NAVGEM but anyone notice the storm it reflects and course.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

GFS showing development of the wave. Must be that darn convective feedback again even though Euro has it too (at least in last night's 0z and this afternoon's 12z).

[Hurricaneman]

GFS showing development of the wave. Must be that darn convective feedback again even though Euro has it too.

The fact is the GFS is showing this developing but gets blasted by shear in the Caribbean but anything beyond 5 days is a crapshoot

0zGFS has development in the MDR and gets blasted by shear in the eastern Caribbean and redevelops in the western Caribbean making landfall as a tropical storm in northern Belize and makes another landfall in southern Mexico as a tropical storm later in the run, also shows a possibility of another wave developing so things seem to be changing towards activity

[Dylan]

Speaking of 2004 deja vu... Do you see what I see?

[Kingarabian]

Nothing on the Euro lol.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Euro not interested in the wave this run. Like the GFS, it shows a pretty strong vort max in the southern Gulf. Combined with some ensemble support, will have to watch that area over the next 10 days in addition to the wave (which wont be accurately sampled for another few days, expect models to be inconsistent and maybe even drop it).

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Decent looking vort on the EC.

[NDG]

[https://s2.postimg.org/vqotbdbih/gyre_circ_ecmwf_11.png
Decent looking vort on the EC.

This is an old run from Sunday night, last night's it drop it.