2017 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF has the Cape Verde storm heading WNW at 192 hours through the NE Lesser Antilles:

[Ivanhater]

Euro showing development in west Caribbean...big change from screaming shear it was showing. Not really interested in specific storms and path but conditions looking favorable

[BobHarlem]

Time to start waking people up.

[RL3AO]

Looks like the classic Bay of Campeche storm that leaves us all saying "if this only had 12 more hours over water, it could have been really bad".

[Ivanhater]

Looks like the classic Bay of Campeche storm that leaves us all saying "if this only had 12 more hours over water, it could have been really bad".

Starts developing in western Caribbean instead of heading to epac...pattern shifting as you and others have been pointing out

[gatorcane]

Puerto Rico at 216 hours as a TS heading WNW.

[Siker]

Euro shows virtually no shear across the entire MDR (including Caribbean) at 216 hours.

[gatorcane]

240 hours, skimming Hispaniola heading W to WNW.

[SFLcane]

Na looks like shredezola there gatorcane..but one thing is for sure things might be set to come alive soon. Bring it on!

[SFLcane]

Fun times soon... models now onboard with AEW.

[Ivanhater]

Well folks..don't get caught up in specific storm paths in that run but what a turnaround in overall favorable conditions for the atl

[weathaguyry]

Hopefully we get bunches of beautiful cat 5 hurricanes that go out to sea and cause no harm to anyone!

[Kingarabian]

I'm thinking the NHC will wait for support from the GFS before anything - which I think it will at 18z. Euro is just as notorious for showing development and then dropping it all together. The differences between the 12z GFS and 12z Euro is that the former is showing significantly higher shear.

The EPS is a pretty darn good tool for TC genesis. Saw the BOC system 5 days ahead.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z ECMWF also showing an inactive EPAC throughout the forecast period. In August, that's usually a good sign of an Atlantic TC outbreak.

[Alyono]

I'm thinking the NHC will wait for support from the GFS before anything - which I think it will at 18z. Euro is just as notorious for showing development and then dropping it all together. The differences between the 12z GFS and 12z Euro is that the former is showing significantly higher shear.

The EPS is a pretty darn good tool for TC genesis. Saw the BOC system 5 days ahead.

0Z EPS had nearly a 100 percent chance of development in the tropical Atlantic next week, likely from thsi system

[Kingarabian]

In regards to the BOC system, the Euro overdid the high for Cindy continuously, and sent Cindy into Mexico quite a number of times. GFS is showing a weak low pressure area (which appears to be the BOC system the Euro/EPS are showing) moving north towards Texas.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Remember that the ECMWF has at times struggled with storm strength in both short, and in long range. So, this storm is no doubt a threat to be stronger under the conditions others have said the ECMWF shows. PR may be under the gun in a little over a week. Path and intensity still no where set in stone, and neither is development at all.

[gatorcane]

New thread on this potential Cape Verde system:
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118924

[Hurricaneman]

The end of the 12zEuro shows another low pressure near the CV islands at the end of the run, next week could be the start of a very active period especially from the 10th onwards

[WeatherEmperor]

12z Navgem also has a system near the BOC




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