Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR July 4th forecast=17/7/3
Interesting, I'm thinking CSU MAY go up or just remain the same knowing them. Anyone know what they may be going with tomorrow?
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- Kingarabian
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR July 4th forecast=17/7/3
TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Interesting, I'm thinking CSU MAY go up or just remain the same knowing them. Anyone know what they may be going with tomorrow?
I'm thinking the same numbers. Phil's tweets have been Atlantic negative lately and has taken an interest in the El Nino prospects.
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- 1900hurricane
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: TSR July 4th forecast=17/7/3
Seventeen tropical storms is quite a large number, but seven hurricanes is only one above average. That's a somewhat interesting ratio, even accounting for the three storms that have already been named.
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season:
When does CSU release their updated forecast?
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU July 5th forecast=15/8/3
135 ACE would be a pretty big season above normal, much like last season
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- Blown Away
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU July 5th forecast=15/8/3
I found interesting:
CSU July 2017 Forecast: 15/8/3 - 39% E Coast Major; 38% Gulf Coast Major.
CSU June 2017 Forecast: 14/6/2- 33% E Coast Major; 32% Gulf Coast Major.
CSU June 2005 Forecast: 15/8/4 - 58% E Coast Major; 44% Gulf Coast Major.
CSU June 2004 Forecast: 14/8/3 - 52% E Coast Major; 40% Gulf Coast Major.
CSU storm #'s similar to 2004/05, but the Major striking the CONUS % are much lower...
CSU July 2017 Forecast: 15/8/3 - 39% E Coast Major; 38% Gulf Coast Major.
CSU June 2017 Forecast: 14/6/2- 33% E Coast Major; 32% Gulf Coast Major.
CSU June 2005 Forecast: 15/8/4 - 58% E Coast Major; 44% Gulf Coast Major.
CSU June 2004 Forecast: 14/8/3 - 52% E Coast Major; 40% Gulf Coast Major.
CSU storm #'s similar to 2004/05, but the Major striking the CONUS % are much lower...
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU July 5th forecast=15/8/3
Blown Away wrote:I found interesting:
CSU July 2017 Forecast: 15/8/3 - 39% E Coast Major; 38% Gulf Coast Major.
CSU June 2017 Forecast: 14/6/2- 33% E Coast Major; 32% Gulf Coast Major.
CSU June 2005 Forecast: 15/8/4 - 58% E Coast Major; 44% Gulf Coast Major.
CSU June 2004 Forecast: 14/8/3 - 52% E Coast Major; 40% Gulf Coast Major.
CSU storm #'s similar to 2004/05, but the Major striking the CONUS % are much lower...
Just curious, what does CSU claim to be the "seasonal average risk" for a major strike to occur for the E Coast or Gulf Coast regions?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- TheStormExpert
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
CSU August Hurricane Season Forecast Update released Thursday, what are expecting?
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/892788365728169984
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/892788365728169984
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- tarheelprogrammer
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
TheStormExpert wrote:CSU August Hurricane Season Forecast Update released Thursday, what are expecting?
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/statu ... 5728169984
Numbers lowered.
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
tarheelprogrammer wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:CSU August Hurricane Season Forecast Update released Thursday, what are expecting?
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/statu ... 5728169984
Numbers lowered.
Seems likely IMO. There has been more negative signs appearing as of lately when compared to positives.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
I'm guessing little change. Maybe they bump the number of named storms up 1 or 2 since we've had 5 already.
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- SFLcane
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Lowers numbers? Why? If anything a slight increase is in the cards. Meat of this season lies ahead folks.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Number of named storms should decrease by one at the most and increase by 2-3 at the most if anything. But the only number I could see being lowered by one or two is the amount of hurricanes. But with the meat of the season ahead and with mostly favorable conditions in the cards, it should stay mostly stagnant.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Yeah. I'll predict 17/7/3 from CSU.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
tarheelprogrammer wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:CSU August Hurricane Season Forecast Update released Thursday, what are expecting?
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/statu ... 5728169984
Numbers lowered.
You don't say!
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU July 5th forecast=15/8/3
Blown Away wrote:I found interesting:
CSU July 2017 Forecast: 15/8/3 - 39% E Coast Major; 38% Gulf Coast Major.
CSU June 2017 Forecast: 14/6/2- 33% E Coast Major; 32% Gulf Coast Major.
CSU June 2005 Forecast: 15/8/4 - 58% E Coast Major; 44% Gulf Coast Major.
CSU June 2004 Forecast: 14/8/3 - 52% E Coast Major; 40% Gulf Coast Major.
CSU storm #'s similar to 2004/05, but the Major striking the CONUS % are much lower...
Guess percentages. Gulf got hit by 3 majors in 2005 which was a 44% forecast. Gulf (Florida) got hit by 2 majors in 2004 which was 40% and the 1 E Coast major which was at 52%. I'm sure there's some skill involved or they wouldn't put out the percentage chances of being hit. Nevertheless, none of the US has been hit by a major in almost 12 years. To have 39%/38% possibility is pretty high in a short term sample and probably about right long term if the previous longest major U.S. landfalling drought was 5 years. I don't know.
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CSU July 5th forecast=15/8/3
Steve wrote:I'm sure there's some skill involved or they wouldn't put out the percentage chances of being hit.
There's probably very little (if any) skill to that forecast. I'd guess Phil does it because maybe they will have skill 15 years from now and would have a longer record to compare with.
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- tarheelprogrammer
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Steve wrote:tarheelprogrammer wrote:TheStormExpert wrote:CSU August Hurricane Season Forecast Update released Thursday, what are expecting?
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/statu ... 5728169984
Numbers lowered.
You don't say!
I do lol CSU is a conservative forecast agency.
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: Expert forecasts for the 2017 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
CSU updated hurricane forecast raises NS's by one, 16/8/3.
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/893412446664372225
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/893412446664372225
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