2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[Alyono]

wonder if we are seeing some influence of the Kelvin Wave as convection is increasing in the Atlantic

Of course, there are no signs of organization

[SFLcane]

wonder if we are seeing some influence of the Kelvin Wave as convection is increasing in the Atlantic

Of course, there are no signs of organization

Um yep thats what a Kelvin wave does for you. Organization lets give it sometime.

[wxman57]

Models are certainly seeing a change out there in the MDR/Caribbean by early next week. The current quiet may not last much longer.

[RL3AO]

Models are certainly seeing a change out there in the MDR/Caribbean by early next week. The current quiet may not last much longer.

Wow! No kidding about the Caribbean. Here's the model trend of the last 12 GFS runs. Switches from a TUTT signature next weeks to lighter easterlies.

[weathaguyry]

The way that things are looking, it appears that a burst of activity may be coming soon

[wxman57]

The way that things are looking, it appears that a burst of activity may be coming soon

I agree. Possible west Caribbean or BoC storm by this time next week. That strong wave moving off the west coast of Africa today might develop, too.

[NDG]

Wow, as soon as the EPAC has quieted down so has the shear across the Caribbean!



GFS forecasts shear to remain low across most of the Caribbean through at least the next 10 days or so.

[Hurricaneman]

For those canceling the season, the 18zGFS has us possibly getting to Irma by the 17th but also it's long range and the model could be over or underestimating things but what this tells me is the season is about to take off and we probably will have lots to track the next few months

[RL3AO]

Near to below average shear in Caribbean during August. Not something we've seen much of recently. Now the question is does something get in there?

[WeatherEmperor]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/8 ... 5283141632


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[NDG]

Like I have been saying for days this year the Atlantic/Bermuda mid level ridge is strong. I don't see many storms recurving out to sea unless they gain latitude near or just west of the CV Islands.

[weathaguyry]

There is another monster wave over Africa, no models show it developing, but even if it doesn't develop it should combat some of the SAL and make the atmosphere a little more moist in the MDR

[tarheelprogrammer]

Looked like the lid was coming off, but models say that is starting to look unlikely. When will it come off then? Shear, dry air, and fast movement speeds still a problem.

[Hammy]

Looked like the lid was coming off, but models say that is starting to look unlikely. When will it come off then? Shear, dry air, and fast movement speeds still a problem.

I'm sticking with August 20, though it's unlikely we'll have more than a short-lived depression or storm before that point.

[TheStormExpert]

Looked like the lid was coming off, but models say that is starting to look unlikely. When will it come off then? Shear, dry air, and fast movement speeds still a problem.

Who knows anymore. The GFS has cried "wolf" FAR TOO MANY TIMES!

[gatorcane]

I really didn't expect that lid to have the potential to come off until after Aug 15th anyway so we'll just have to wait a bit longer. But we can definitely say conditions are slowly starting to improve across the Atlantic basin as you would expect.

[RL3AO]

Amazing how quickly people forget that it's August 4th and that most of the experts have been saying the middle of August for over two weeks now.

[caneseddy]

Amazing how quickly people forget that it's August 4th and that most of the experts have been saying the middle of August for over two weeks now.

And to piggyback on this, people have brought up 2004 as an analog year due to Bermuda high, etc look at the below formation dates

Charley formed on August 9 (2nd week)
Frances formed on August 24 (4th week)
Ivan formed on September 2
Jeanne formed on September 13

2005 (and I know this is a big stretch), right after Emily dissipated (July 21) the only significant storm was Irene which formed on August 4and stayed out to sea

Then we get to the 4th week of August and we got Katrina forming and from then on came Rita, Stan, and Wilma

So like everyone has been saying, especially pro mets,give it time...we are slowly getting to the peak of the season and conditions are slowly getting better

[tolakram]

I was wondering why the models were so enthusiastic this early but I figured I missed something. We shall see.

In 2013 we were all gobsmacked that no activity was happening but, as we've said, the signs were there. Are we missing any signs that this season might be below normal? Expectations are still slightly above normal and as far as I know we don't have any of the negative indicators that we've seen in prior years.

[cycloneye]

I was wondering why the models were so enthusiastic this early but I figured I missed something. We shall see.

In 2013 we were all gobsmacked that no activity was happening but, as we've said, the signs were there. Are we missing any signs that this season might be below normal? Expectations are still slightly above normal and as far as I know we don't have any of the negative indicators that we've seen in prior years.

One of the main factors in favor of the North Atlantic in 2017 season is the lack of El Nino so that alone should be a plus.