Texas Summer 2017

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Brent
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#961 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 02, 2017 2:58 pm

and could also be tropical mischief towards the end of next week... BOC storm and with this weakness over the state...
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#962 Postby BrokenGlassRepublicn » Wed Aug 02, 2017 3:03 pm

Ntxw wrote:Euro keeps it below normal still till about mid month. Summer cancel?

After our recent run of early winter cancels, we are owed a summer cancel. But I think we all know better. Some time between now and 15-Sep, the heat miser most certainly will punch us once more right in the face.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#963 Postby gboudx » Wed Aug 02, 2017 3:05 pm

Ntxw wrote:Euro keeps it below normal still till about mid month. Summer cancel?


Image
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#964 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 02, 2017 3:07 pm

BrokenGlassRepublicn wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Euro keeps it below normal still till about mid month. Summer cancel?

After our recent run of early winter cancels, we are owed a summer cancel. But I think we all know better. Some time between now and 15-Sep, the heat miser most certainly will punch us once more right in the face.


Already preparing for the record hot September :lol:

In more serious matters the heat wave out west is something else... some places in Oregon are forecast to be warmer than Dallas has ever been. :eek: 115 degrees in Medford Oregon today. :double:
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#965 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Aug 02, 2017 3:48 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
Portastorm wrote:So far this alleged "rain" event has been comical here in Austin/Travis County. We got some spits and sprinkles for a little bit which I don't think amount to even 0.05" of precip. The AFD out of NWS Austin/San Antonio indicates rain chances best in North Texas and Southeast Texas. Looks like our drought will only worsen. :(


Be patient buddy. Several more chances in the next week at least. Plus, we will need to watch the BOC for possible tropical development next week. Could bring a nice surge of tropical moisture up here.


I'm more inclined to believe the BOC development than the rapid MDR development from the 12z Euro. The CCKW has primed the WCAB/Gulf but the Euro might be rushing things in the MDR. Certainly any system in the BOC would raise some eyebrows since August is prime Texas hurricane season.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#966 Postby bubba hotep » Wed Aug 02, 2017 3:50 pm

Brent wrote:
BrokenGlassRepublicn wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Euro keeps it below normal still till about mid month. Summer cancel?

After our recent run of early winter cancels, we are owed a summer cancel. But I think we all know better. Some time between now and 15-Sep, the heat miser most certainly will punch us once more right in the face.


Already preparing for the record hot September :lol:


In more serious matters the heat wave out west is something else... some places in Oregon are forecast to be warmer than Dallas has ever been. :eek: 115 degrees in Medford Oregon today. :double:


Those are fighting words!
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#967 Postby Ntxw » Wed Aug 02, 2017 3:57 pm

As far as I'm aware DFW has not hit 80 yet today..
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#968 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 02, 2017 3:57 pm

In other news, how odd

Grapevine [Tarrant Co, TX] LAW ENFORCEMENT reports WATER SPOUT at 2:10 PM CDT -- WATERSPOUT FORMED OVER LAKE GRAPEVINE. NO DAMAGE REPORTED.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#969 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Aug 02, 2017 4:04 pm

Portastorm wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
Portastorm wrote:So far this alleged "rain" event has been comical here in Austin/Travis County. We got some spits and sprinkles for a little bit which I don't think amount to even 0.05" of precip. The AFD out of NWS Austin/San Antonio indicates rain chances best in North Texas and Southeast Texas. Looks like our drought will only worsen. :(


Be patient buddy. Several more chances in the next week at least. Plus, we will need to watch the BOC for possible tropical development next week. Could bring a nice surge of tropical moisture up here.


Yeah, yeah, yeah ... I've heard this before. Next thing you know, I'll be told that it is going to be cold and icy in Austin this coming winter. :spam:


Looks like a complex of showers and thunderstorms is tracking towards Austin... :wink:
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#970 Postby Portastorm » Wed Aug 02, 2017 4:17 pm

bubba hotep wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
Portastorm wrote:So far this alleged "rain" event has been comical here in Austin/Travis County. We got some spits and sprinkles for a little bit which I don't think amount to even 0.05" of precip. The AFD out of NWS Austin/San Antonio indicates rain chances best in North Texas and Southeast Texas. Looks like our drought will only worsen. :(


Be patient buddy. Several more chances in the next week at least. Plus, we will need to watch the BOC for possible tropical development next week. Could bring a nice surge of tropical moisture up here.


I'm more inclined to believe the BOC development than the rapid MDR development from the 12z Euro. The CCKW has primed the WCAB/Gulf but the Euro might be rushing things in the MDR. Certainly any system in the BOC would raise some eyebrows since August is prime Texas hurricane season.


I looked over the 12z ensembles and all three of the big boys (Euro/GFS/CMC) show lowering surface pressures in the central/western GOM by next week at this time. So, there's that. I do agree with you that the Euro seems a bit too bullish for my tastes.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#971 Postby 1900hurricane » Wed Aug 02, 2017 5:01 pm

0.02" inches of rain today so far. ...woo?
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#972 Postby gboudx » Wed Aug 02, 2017 6:18 pm

Brent wrote:In other news, how odd

Grapevine [Tarrant Co, TX] LAW ENFORCEMENT reports WATER SPOUT at 2:10 PM CDT -- WATERSPOUT FORMED OVER LAKE GRAPEVINE. NO DAMAGE REPORTED.


Steve McAuley has a pic of it on his FB page.
Image

And of course a great explanation from Steve:

This still frame of the Lake Grapevine Waterspout today was sent in to WFAA by Christian Armstrong.
When dewpoints are in the 70s, this reflects an unusually high amount of moisture (i.e., water vapor) in the air, and it is relatively easy to spin these up from a warm body of water, especially when the water is warmer than the air that lies above it.
Water vapor contains a lot of "hidden heat" called latent heat, and when it condenses (i.e., turns into water droplets), it must - by physical law - release this heat energy. This sudden release of heat can be used to strengthen a localized updraft - sort of like a hot air balloon going straight up. If there happens to be any kind of horizontal wind shear - a boundary where winds change their direction - over the lake, this updraft can pull this horizontal wind shear boundary into the vertical and stretch it creating these type of vortices.
They tend to be weak - especially in late summer - and if they do make it to land, they typically fall apart fairly quickly.
But if you see one of these in the spring or fall, it is more likely a more significant tornado that just happens to be passing over a body water!
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#973 Postby JDawg512 » Wed Aug 02, 2017 6:37 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
Be patient buddy. Several more chances in the next week

Looks like a complex of showers and thunderstorms is tracking towards Austin... :wink:


And the complex ends up hitting SA while missing us. Go figure :18:
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#974 Postby South Texas Storms » Wed Aug 02, 2017 6:42 pm

JDawg512 wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:
Be patient buddy. Several more chances in the next week

Looks like a complex of showers and thunderstorms is tracking towards Austin... :wink:


And the complex ends up hitting SA while missing us. Go figure :18:


Hey SA needs it too! :)
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#975 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 02, 2017 8:42 pm

DFW 81 lovely degrees today

Only 3 degrees from the coolest August 2nd on record
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#976 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Thu Aug 03, 2017 7:35 am

Looks like we are going to creep back into the low to mid 90s for a few days before dropping back into the mid to upper 80s. Also, the whole forecast period has a pretty decent chance of rain, with the best being 60%.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#977 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Aug 03, 2017 7:38 am

Some areas just south of San Antonio have gotten 3-6 inches of rain so far this morning along the stalled front. Wish that occurred farther north across SA and Austin. Hopefully our turn comes soon!
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#978 Postby DonWrk » Thu Aug 03, 2017 8:34 am

Don't think I've ever seen fog so thick in the month of August!
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#979 Postby gpsnowman » Thu Aug 03, 2017 9:03 am

DonWrk wrote:Don't think I've ever seen fog so thick in the month of August!

I don't think I have ever seen fog in August.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#980 Postby Ntxw » Thu Aug 03, 2017 9:12 am

What happens down in the BOC probably has some implications for us both small and large scale. If it goes into MX, it's likely a sign that ridging is building in from our east ending our cool spell pattern. Or like a few ensembles if it becomes strong it may head more northward and strike Texas, showing weak ridging.

I am always uneasy when something is forming in the Atlantic side. If it doesn't effect us directly odds are it will change the pattern (this time of year back to warmer and dry). Lalaland GFS brings a hurricane to the southeast and brings back heat ridge to Texas. Not that I believe any of it, just pointing the potential pattern shift from different solutions.
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