Caribbean Tropical Wave along 65W (Potential BOC System) (Is INVEST 90L)

[AJC3]

The convection I saw was actually from 53W eastward. That's why I said it didn't appear to have been mentioned in the TWD. The closest I see in what you quoted is "54W-65W".

You have some convection along the eastern flank of that wave, and then there's convection farther east associated with the wave near 35W being discussed in this thread.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=118904

The troughing associated with both of these waves is quite broad, as mentioned in this morning's TWD. The lead wave in particular is pretty "low amplitude", or in other words, not that very sharp, from a N-S perspective.

The increase in low latitude convection in between the two appears to be associated with a bit of a northward surge on the south side of the ITCZ, as seen in this morning's ASCAT pass.

[AJC3]

Looking at things a little more closely, there is a WNW to ESE surge line along pretty much the entire southern flank of the SAL outbreak from about 60W through 40W, give or take a few degrees.

That small northward bulge in the ITCZ (illustrated above) appears to have been enhancing convection in that area. Over the last few hours, the stronger convection has been propagating rapidly westward closer to the lead wave axis, which appears to be near 60W now.

[Alyono]

question is what will the upper level environment be in the Gulf? Navgem and EC tend to favor anti-cyclonic flow (though the EC is south of the best divergence. GFS has a large upper trough

Could mean the difference between a hurricane in the GUlf next week or scattered showers

[RL3AO]

Are we using this thread for the potential BOC system? It appears to be a combination of this wave interacting with a Central American gyre.

[tropicwatch]

Convection is looking good in the Caribbean with this wave. The upper level wind shear has come down considerably. Looks like this might be the system models are picking up on developing in the BOC.

[AJC3]

Are we using this thread for the potential BOC system? It appears to be a combination of this wave interacting with a Central American gyre.

I was asked about that yesterday, and I gave the go ahead to talk about it here, since some of the energy appeared to come from this wave.

[RL3AO]

Are we using this thread for the potential BOC system? It appears to be a combination of this wave interacting with a Central American gyre.

I was asked about that yesterday, and I gave the go ahead to talk about it here, since some of the energy appeared to come from this wave.

Makes sense to me. I clarified the title.

[RL3AO]

While it's not in a hurry to organize, the wave and convection show signs that the southern half of the Caribbean have become much more favorable.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like a slight rotation is beginning.

[weathaguyry]

Maybe a mention at the 2PM TWO?

[RL3AO]

Maybe a mention at the 2PM TWO?

Probably soon. Just depends on when the 5 day genesis probs reach 20%

[PTrackerLA]

Looking impressive this morning but also racing along at a good clip. If the 12z models come in more bullish on a BOC system I would expect the NHC to mention it this afternoon.

[srainhoutx]

Maybe a mention at the 2PM TWO?

Probably soon. Just depends on when the 5 day genesis probs reach 20%

TC Genesis Probabilities are at 50% in the 120 to 240 hour range as of 00Z. With the CCKW likely centered over the Western/NW Caribbean by Sunday into Monday, I suspect it will be tagged by the NHC within the next 24 hours, if the trends continue.

[RL3AO]

Looking impressive this morning but also racing along at a good clip. If the 12z models come in more bullish on a BOC system I would expect the NHC to mention it this afternoon.

Which is why it won't develop anytime soon. Stronger trades in the eastern Caribbean as usual for August.

[tropicwatch]

Looks like the upper level environment is becoming fairly favorable for this system.

[northjaxpro]

This disturbance already looks very stout embedded within the gyre in the Caribbean.

Once this feature nears the NW Caribbean area, I think we will see this area evolve into quite a decent cyclone. Shear indeed is lowering down there, and looking ahead, I do not see much hindering development, other than possible land interaction with Yucatan Peninsula or Central America.

[TheStormExpert]

12z GFS still shows little to no development from this, then again it goes from one extreme to the next in just one run for 99L.

[Hammy]

12z GFS still shows little to no development from this, then again it goes from one extreme to the next in just one run for 99L.

GFS develops one, Euro develops this one, so as long as the Euro doesn't back off I'll go with development--GFS doesn't seem to handle BoC lows very well.

[NDG]

Some vorticity trying to get going but low level jet might be a little too strong for now, definitely something to watch as it gets to the western Caribbean as last night's Euro showed.

[TheAustinMan]

90L has been initialized.

Code: Select all

AL, 90, 2017080312,   , BEST,   0, 122N,  646W,  25, 1012, DB,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1013,  150,   0,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 017, SPAWNINVEST, al712017 to al902017,