ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion
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- TropicalAnalystwx13
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ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion
For the strong tropical wave centered in the eastern Caribbean. Good contender for development in the West Caribbean or Bay of Campeche.
AL, 90, 2017080312, , BEST, 0, 122N, 646W, 25, 1012, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 017, SPAWNINVEST, al712017 to al902017,
AL, 90, 2017080312, , BEST, 0, 122N, 646W, 25, 1012, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 017, SPAWNINVEST, al712017 to al902017,
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- TropicalAnalystwx13
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- TropicalAnalystwx13
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
A strong tropical wave located over the southeastern Caribbean Sea
is producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms, along
with tropical-storm-force wind gusts in squalls. Environmental
conditions are expected to become a little more conducive for
development by Sunday over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and by
early next week over the Bay of Campeche while the disturbance
moves westward or west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. This system
could produce brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds over Aruba,
Bonaire, and Curacao tonight and Friday. For additional information
on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
is producing a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms, along
with tropical-storm-force wind gusts in squalls. Environmental
conditions are expected to become a little more conducive for
development by Sunday over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and by
early next week over the Bay of Campeche while the disturbance
moves westward or west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. This system
could produce brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds over Aruba,
Bonaire, and Curacao tonight and Friday. For additional information
on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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- tropicwatch
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
Might see the new PTC with this one being already in the Caribbean.
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Tropicwatch
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
12z Euro
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
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M a r k
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- South Texas Storms
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
12z Euro is coming in stronger and slightly farther north through 144 hours.
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- Blown Away
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
Get 90L into the BOC and I'll bet you it gets named!
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- Kingarabian
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
South Texas Storms wrote:12z Euro is coming in stronger and slightly farther north through 144 hours.
Looks like the Euro has been trending more and more north.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
Ridge is coming up progressively weaker on each run.
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M a r k
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
Still into Mexico. If the euro still has a left bias I think it's fair to say South Texas needs to keep a very close eye on this.
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- PTrackerLA
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
Looks like landfall is around 987mb on the hi-res. It will be interesting to see what the Euro ensembles show this afternoon, definitely need to keep a close eye on this system now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
Watch out for increased signs of organization with this one. If it starts to develop sooner than expected (and trend stronger in the models), the more likely S TX is to be impacted.
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- Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
RL3AO wrote:Watch out for increased signs of organization with this one. If it starts to develop sooner than expected (and trend stronger in the models), the more likely S TX is to be impacted.
Yup, ECMWF showed increased organization before making landfall in the Yucatan, thus showed it going further north as opposed to the 00z ECMWF. This one may be more of a threat to land than 99L ever will be.
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Discussion
This will probably be a hurricane threat from northern Mexico to Houston which we will narrow down later in the week but it needs to be watched
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
Pretty huge EPS support, around 35/51 members. Solutions range from southern BoC to Central LA.
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- northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: INVEST 90L - Models
The latest EURO run 144 hours out is a bit concerning. The EURO is eroding that ridge at this juncture in time, and if this holds true, anywhere from the Central Gulf Coast to Mexico will need to watch this situation very closely.
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