Ntxw wrote:What happens down in the BOC probably has some implications for us both small and large scale. If it goes into MX, it's likely a sign that ridging is building in from our east ending our cool spell pattern. Or like a few ensembles if it becomes strong it may head more northward and strike Texas, showing weak ridging.
I am always uneasy when something is forming in the Atlantic side. If it doesn't effect us directly odds are it will change the pattern (this time of year back to warmer and dry). Lalaland GFS brings a hurricane to the southeast and brings back heat ridge to Texas. Not that I believe any of it, just pointing the potential pattern shift from different solutions.
I think you're SPOT ON with this analysis, Ntxw. I was thinking about the same thing this morning after looking at the 0z and 6z GFS runs and the 0z Euro and CMC. They all seem to keep whatever develops in the GOM next week well to our south. To me that means more typical August Texas weather may return for many of us.
I hope the models are wrong!
