Texas Summer 2017

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Portastorm
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#981 Postby Portastorm » Thu Aug 03, 2017 9:30 am

Ntxw wrote:What happens down in the BOC probably has some implications for us both small and large scale. If it goes into MX, it's likely a sign that ridging is building in from our east ending our cool spell pattern. Or like a few ensembles if it becomes strong it may head more northward and strike Texas, showing weak ridging.

I am always uneasy when something is forming in the Atlantic side. If it doesn't effect us directly odds are it will change the pattern (this time of year back to warmer and dry). Lalaland GFS brings a hurricane to the southeast and brings back heat ridge to Texas. Not that I believe any of it, just pointing the potential pattern shift from different solutions.


I think you're SPOT ON with this analysis, Ntxw. I was thinking about the same thing this morning after looking at the 0z and 6z GFS runs and the 0z Euro and CMC. They all seem to keep whatever develops in the GOM next week well to our south. To me that means more typical August Texas weather may return for many of us.

I hope the models are wrong! :lol: Frankly I'd love to see a nice little tropical system row ashore and dump about 5-10" of rain on Austin (of course over several days and not at once!).
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#982 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Thu Aug 03, 2017 10:02 am

If we had to, I guess we could deal with typical August returning, knowing that we are on the downward decent away from summer. So far we have been pretty lucky with the heat, at least up this way. Cooler temps will be here before we know it.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#983 Postby Ntxw » Thu Aug 03, 2017 10:48 am

Yukon Cornelius wrote:If we had to, I guess we could deal with typical August returning, knowing that we are on the downward decent away from summer. So far we have been pretty lucky with the heat, at least up this way. Cooler temps will be here before we know it.


I'd like to see whatever BOC entity there is remain weak and get drawn up by an upper trof across Texas. Lucky the Euro ensembles long range keep trough somewhat in place, so our weather pattern shouldn't deviate too much. The question is, will some Atlantic tropical system change that in the coming weeks so my post was more veered towards later weeks. Often when a big hurricane hits east of us, heat ridge is not far behind it in Texas. Again to emphasize not that I believe 300hr GFS of a hurricane hitting Georgia.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#984 Postby Portastorm » Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:34 am

Latest drought maps show worsening conditions in south central Texas, unfortunately, especially along the I-35 corridor south of Waco.

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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#985 Postby CaptinCrunch » Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:35 am

the rain chance % fror this weekend dropped on the latest forecast, 40% down to 20% for the Friday Night through Sunday time frame, but remains at 40% chances Sunday night through Wednesday.

We'll see.... :roll:
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#986 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:38 am

Portastorm wrote:Latest drought maps show worsening conditions in south central Texas, unfortunately, especially along the I-35 corridor south of Waco.

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Yeah it's been way too dry across south central Texas. SA has received under 1 inch of rain since June 1. Horrible.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#987 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Aug 03, 2017 2:22 pm

Latest run of the Euro has shifted further north for Invest 90L.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#988 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Aug 03, 2017 2:33 pm

Cpv17 wrote:Latest run of the Euro has shifted further north for Invest 90L.

I hope 90L can help the drought there but it's at least a week away and anything can happen
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#989 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Aug 03, 2017 3:06 pm

Hurricaneman wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:Latest run of the Euro has shifted further north for Invest 90L.

I hope 90L can help the drought there but it's at least a week away and anything can happen


The stronger it gets the more likely it will be to feel the trough. I'd say if it develops anyone from north Mexico to Louisiana is in play.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#990 Postby Tejas89 » Thu Aug 03, 2017 4:16 pm

FWD's 7-day looks like May instead of August.

No complaints here. :rain:
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#991 Postby aggiecutter » Thu Aug 03, 2017 4:59 pm

Looks like the good people north of 1-20 will continue to receive heavy rain over the next 7 days.

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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#992 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Aug 03, 2017 6:11 pm

Not too enthused about rain chances for the southern 2/3 of TX unless we can get some help from the tropics.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#993 Postby aggiecutter » Thu Aug 03, 2017 6:58 pm

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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#994 Postby aggiecutter » Thu Aug 03, 2017 8:57 pm

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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#995 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Aug 03, 2017 10:15 pm

If these forecast hold for August... what a crazy turn of events that would be after the past two years of crazy heat.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#996 Postby Ntxw » Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:01 pm

bubba hotep wrote:If these forecast hold for August... what a crazy turn of events that would be after the past two years of crazy heat.


Forget the past 2 years, its crazy for any August. 1971 and 2004 are the only other two I can think of off the bat that is like this
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#997 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Aug 03, 2017 11:13 pm

Euro Weeklies carry the pattern into September.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#998 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 04, 2017 12:50 am

I'm up here in Seattle til Monday morning and the weather up here is about as unheard of as it in Dallas

The smoke from wildfires is keeping temps down in the daytime but up at night and Seattle's warmest night on record is in danger and the TV met just said it might be 10 days before this pattern breaks... I already witnessed a couple people tonight seemingly on the verge of keeling over from this dry heat/smoke... and I didn't even get in the city til after the hottest part of the day...
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#999 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Aug 04, 2017 1:44 am

The 00z ECMWF would give south Texas quite a bit of rain as once again a slight shift north has occurred and it's quite a big stronger.
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Re: Texas Summer 2017

#1000 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Aug 04, 2017 8:18 am

@BigJoeBastardi: of the 2 features, think front runner will develop and be in gulf next week, possible Texas threat and so is of most concern to me right now...
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