ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dylan]

The 18z GEFS signature on 99L might have almost broke the model. Pretty much screaming that we will be tracking a classic Atlantic hurricane in the near future.

[RL3AO]

Tigerz3030 makes a great point folks. If it is possible or feasible for you to post the images of the models you are discussing, please by all means post them. This is the models thread after all.

Now, I am aware there have been issues with posting a few model images on this site in the past with copyright infringement etc.. That is.unless there have been changes to this If so, maybe the mods can elaborate more on this matter.

Yeah. We'll probably start being more strict about this during future runs.

[Nimbus]

This was the GFS 240 that had people concerned.
https://ibb.co/mN4mGa

[Siker]

FWIW, the HWRF and the GFS are in practically the same position at 120 hours.

Also, the HMON is 4 degrees west and 40mb lower than its 12z run .

[wxman57]

It'll be fighting dry air over the next 4-5 days. All 50 EC ensemble members keep it a weak low all the way into the eastern Caribbean. Lowest pressure of the 50 members + 1 control run was 1007mb. Caribbean system may have a better shot at developing over the next 5 days.

[Steve]

Welcome back everyone!!

Can someone post these updated models since this IS the model thread please?

Do you need links as well or not have bandwidth? Levi's site at tropicaltidbits.com is great, and there is always the FSU site and Penn State Tropical E-Wall. If you need those let us know.

[TheAustinMan]

Here's what model newcomer HMON had to offer in its 18z run.


Source: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gc_wmb/vxt/HMON/index.php

[SFLcane]

Strong wording on 8pm NHC TWO

[JtSmarts]

I wonder if we will get Potential Cyclone advisories?

[tigerz3030]

Links are fine Steve and thanks everyone. This will bear watching for sure but lots of changes more than likely between now and then.

[RL3AO]

I wonder if we will get Potential Cyclone advisories?

No land threat.

[RL3AO]

There's without a doubt some dry air with the standard trade wind inversion to the north, but it really doesn't seem like it should prevent TCG. A very impressive moisture envelope compared to previous waves/MDR systems this year.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track:

AL, 99, 2017080400, , BEST, 0, 99N, 227W, 25, 1010, LO

[Steve]

Links are fine Steve and thanks everyone. This will bear watching for sure but lots of changes more than likely between now and then.

Here you go.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewalltropatl.html
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

Tons more but that's a good start.

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

Welcome back everyone!!

Can someone post these updated models since this IS the model thread please?

Do you need links as well or not have bandwidth? Levi's site at tropicaltidbits.com is great, and there is always the FSU site and Penn State Tropical E-Wall. If you need those let us know.

Do you have a link to the individual GFS ensemble members ??? Thanks

[RL3AO]

12z Euro Ensembles




12z GFS Ensembles

[gatorcane]

I have a feeling we are going to see another case of the upgraded GFS making a potential system too strong. Look for further south shifts in the track and for the model to show not nearly as strong of system in subsequent runs.

[txwatcher91]

Generally I’ve found a blend of the GFS and Euro Ensembles works well. Euro tends to be a bit too suppressed and GFS a bit too far north. A middle ground approach would put this just north of the islands and into the Bahamas... that would be a concerning scenario if this does develop and find favorable conditions.

[RL3AO]

I have a feeling we are going to see another case of the upgraded GFS making a potential system too strong. Look for further south shifts in the track and for the model to show not nearly as strong of system in subsequent runs.

Maybe so. But just looking at satellite this evening, it looks like something that you would expect to be a TS within 3 days or so. We'll see. Maybe it will fall apart.

[Siker]

The western lobe near 10N/30W is certainly the more convectively active of the two. Wish we could get an ASCAT pass over it (I hear one should be coming up soon). A very recent pass shows the low the NHC has for the center further east:



However, vorticity is on the increase for the area further to the west, as well as surface convergence. The GFS has consistently shown the two areas merging in the next 36 hours, but it has more noticeably shown this area absorbing the area further east for its last two runs. I don't know any of the implications of this change; just interesting.