ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bamajammer4eva]

00z, 06z, 12z, 18z Trend all are valid early afternoon next Saturday (8/12) for GEFS. More members agree on something being there. Also more hint at Western Gulf system. Could 90L affect 99L path?

[cycloneye]

Siker,that ASCAT pass was at 11:23 UTC this morning.

[gatorcane]

Saved RGB loop:

[Siker]

Siker,that ASCAT pass was at 11:23 UTC this morning.

??? It says 1:02 UTC August 4th.

[RL3AO]

Interesting to note that convection is firing to the west (near 32W) of the GFS/TAFB analyzed center (near 28W). That's obviously better than the convection firing behind the center...

[RL3AO]

Siker,that ASCAT pass was at 11:23 UTC this morning.

??? It says 1:02 UTC August 4th.

You need to go by the little purple time stamp on the bottom on the image. The time at the top of the image constantly refreshes.

[Siker]

Siker,that ASCAT pass was at 11:23 UTC this morning.

??? It says 1:02 UTC August 4th.

You need to go by the little purple time stamp on the bottom on the image. The time at the top of the image constantly refreshes.

Oh yeesh, my bad. Took me about a minute of searching to even find it .

[Siker]

I assume the 08 under the new low on this TAFB map indicates an estimated pressure of 1008mb?

[northjaxpro]

00z, 06z, 12z, 18z Trend all are valid early afternoon next Saturday (8/12) for GEFS. More members agree on something being there. Also more hint at Western Gulf system. Could 90L affect 99L path?

I saw this same compilation of these runs not too long ago. If you notice carefully, you are beginning to see the influence of the shortwave trough coming down into the Midwest U.S. Also, 90L looks to feel the weakness a bit more on this run. 90L may become more of a threat to TX and the Gulf Coast region as time progresses. Just wanted to mention this. If that trough is stronger and quicker than initially forecasted, then that factor will also play a vital role on the future path of 99L down the road, especially with regards to the CONUS SE Coast, and the East Coast in general.

[GeneratorPower]

12z Euro Ensembles

The Euro. The ensembles. This image says it all.

[cycloneye]

Yes,1008 mbs.

[northjaxpro]

The EURO ensembles for now generally start the trend of recurving the system at or just past 70 degrees Longitude.

[northjaxpro]

:I believe this new 1008 mb vortex may take over as the main primary one eventually.

[abajan]

:I believe this new 1008 mb vortex may take over as the main primary one eventually.

It's certainly beginning to look that way.

[GeneratorPower]

The EURO ensembles for now generally start the trend of recurving the system at or just past 70 degrees Longitude.

Not seeing that. I'm seeing Euro ensembles take this generally on a death-by-Hispaniola track.

[AutoPenalti]

The EURO ensembles for now generally start the trend of recurving the system at or just past 70 degrees Longitude.

Where exactly do you see that?

[northjaxpro]

Also that vortex has an impressive convective area near the LLC. Barometric pressure estimated at 1008 mb, Well, that type of pressure reading can support easily a tropical storm. If the new vortex takes over, and I think it is doing that, it should not take very long for NHC to declare this a TD at the very least. This may happen tomorrow.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I agree at least at this point I do not see any real evidence of a recurve. It does however show a consistent path to the WNW in general as a path. But all of these opinions are all model general assessments as of now. We all know that the environment can and will change between now and any threat to the conus. How ever you down in the Islands should be paying attention to this.

[txwatcher91]

:I believe this new 1008 mb vortex may take over as the main primary one eventually.

Interesting, as I believe the GFS was showing this happening early today, maybe it wasn’t so far off after all.

[txwatcher91]

Keep in mind the euro ensembles are basing the track off a weak TS at best. If this develops quicker and is stronger, a further north track like the GFS would be more likely.