ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

The CFS has been horrible so far this season.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Can't say I am familiar with that model.

[Steve]

:uarrow: The CFS has been horrible so far this season.

The climate model has blown the GFS away on the US Continent. I'm assuming that's why Bastardi stopped showing the GFS for the most part. It started a few weeks ago with the GFS being clueless as to the cool down in the desert southwest even while it was occurring. CFS has also (like the Euro) predicted mid-continental patterns including the negative anomalies through the heartland and the relative heat in the NW US. I don't subscribe to their site, but it's not a surprise he'd show that all 4 of those came into agreement. I'm not saying use the CFS to follow tracks of storms at all. But don't sleep on the patterns it demonstrates. It's WAAAAAY too early, but this is showing a very dangerous situation like we haven't seen since 2005 (though not the same threats obviously).

[Steve]

Also, I don't know what to think about this GFS run so far. We're down to 985mb at 78 hours at about 14.67N 42.5W. It doesn't do much with 90L, and the only major continental low pressure at 3 1/4 days is up near 54N/69W.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

No change to the GFS so far. Depression tomorrow, tropical storm Sunday, hurricane Monday (Cat 2 Tuesday).

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12
Firing some convection near the new low.

[BobHarlem]

The 0z GFS seems to be overdoing it on intensity, I'd split the difference between this and the euro 0z (when it arrives) and then watch the general patterns around it. It'll probably just miss the US to the east on this run (Watch me be wrong)

[floridasun78]

so killer sal waiting for 99l look like sal still alive!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[CrazyC83]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/893299298011668482

The subtropical Atlantic system is ex-Emily?

[Blown Away]

The NHC typically follows something pretty close to the TVCN consensus track and the 00z TVCN is way south of GFS. TVCN takes 99L a few miles N of PR and skims N coast of Hispaniola. Just an observation.

[Steve]

90L shows up as 1003mb at 144 hours in the middle of the BoC maybe having moved a bit south from 138 or possibly just looping or hanging there. 99L is 19.3/57ish moving WNW and 975. Obviously this run goes north of the big islands unless it was to hook back west. There's a big low pressure moving off the maritimes. I'm wondering if there is either a rebound of the Atlantic High or possibly a pattern reversal along the N Gulf to assess both threats. Earlier on, I thought the first 10-12 days of August would be mostly low key.

[Sciencerocks]

Looking at the 18z and comparing it to the 00z shows that the 00z maybe .2 degrees further northwest at 150 hours. The biggest difference is the trough that is south of greenland in the 18z is about 500 miles southwest in the 00z. Still ridge holds and we get the same general position.

156hr is right ontop of the 18z
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 400&fh=156

[PTrackerLA]

90L shows up as 1003mb at 144 hours in the middle of the BoC maybe having moved a bit south from 138 or possibly just looping or hanging there. 99L is 19.3/57ish moving WNW and 975. Obviously this run goes north of the big islands unless it was to hook back west. There's a big low pressure moving off the maritimes. I'm wondering if there is either a rebound of the Atlantic High or possibly a pattern reversal along the N Gulf to assess both threats. Earlier on, I thought the first 10-12 days of August would be mostly low key.

I feel you, just a few days ago I was thinking it would be quiet in the basin until August 15th at least. Now we have two invests that *might* impact land by August 15th .

[Siker]

UKMET much weaker, Euro like:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 13.7N 36.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.08.2017 60 13.9N 37.5W 1011 27
0000UTC 07.08.2017 72 14.6N 39.6W 1011 26
1200UTC 07.08.2017 84 15.2N 42.2W 1011 27
0000UTC 08.08.2017 96 15.8N 44.8W 1012 26
1200UTC 08.08.2017 108 16.2N 48.1W 1012 28
0000UTC 09.08.2017 120 16.6N 50.9W 1013 27
1200UTC 09.08.2017 132 17.2N 54.2W 1013 28
0000UTC 10.08.2017 144 18.5N 57.4W 1011

[Steve]

So far the Canadian is farther west and south than the GFS with 99L. It's got 15N/46.75 at 108 hours and 1005mb. 90L is burying into the Southern BoC. 108 is 4 1/2 days. We'll see if it was worth anything. But wait! GFS is sort of going West barely north of the islands and then heads a bit WNW at 186 and is down in the 940's. Damn. That looks scary so far.

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/893325582376763393

[Sciencerocks]

186 hours maybe .5 degrees south of the 18z.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 400&fh=186

192 hours maybe a full degree south of the 18z! 937mb!
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=342

198 hours southwest of 18z by full degree. Stronger ridging to the north and west. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=342

[txwatcher91]

If this ridging verifies and we have a tropical storm or hurricane on our hands...

[BobHarlem]

This time it looks like the GFS takes it into the Turks/Caicos.

[Alyono]

Canadian is quite a bit weaker, though not as weak as the UKMET