ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bvigal]

It’s amazing. Many are writing this off already. Expecting it to be developed already and since it hasn’t well that must be it for this system. Camille was a tropical wave for eight days before it developed. I don’t think we should be so hasty in writing 99L off quite just yet.

Yeah, way too early to speculate. Not even possible to get a good fix right now, so the runs don't mean much yet. ECarib should keep a watch, further west should relax for a bit.

[Blown Away]

18 Track:


18z Intensity:

[AubreyStorm]

Nice! Only one Lowwww! See below

[AutoPenalti]

Nice! Only one Lowwww! See below

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/USA_latest.gif

Does it really matter in the grand scheme of things?

(Models)

[Blown Away]

18z GFS... 66hrs ... 1005mb maybe TD... Slightly stronger than 12z...

[AubreyStorm]

Nice! Only one Lowwww! See below

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/USA_latest.gif

Does it really matter in the grand scheme of things?

(Models)

Absolutely YESSS!

[Blown Away]

18z GFS... 90hrs ... 998mb Strong TS... Decent uptick in intensity compared to 12z... Track about the same...

[RL3AO]

If this is going to develop in the next 3 or 4 days, it's gonna need some deep and organized convection tonight. And then it will probably weaken tomorrow. But then it will need to fire more organized convection tomorrow night. If it can do that, it might have a chance of becoming a TD by Monday.

[hipshot]

Nice! Only one Lowwww! See below

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/USA_latest.gif

Where is 90L in that graphic?

[Hurricaneman]

18z GFS... 90hrs ... 998mb Strong TS... Decent uptick in intensity compared to 12z... Track about the same...

Maybe a tic south, might be able to miss Hispaniola to the south if that happens

[RL3AO]

Where is 90L in that graphic?

The tropical wave over the central Caribbean

[SouthFLTropics]

18z GFS... 90hrs ... 998mb Strong TS... Decent uptick in intensity compared to 12z... Track about the same...

Maybe a tic south, might be able to miss Hispaniola to the south if that happens

If it develops sooner then it may move more poleward. We'll see what the model shows.

[Alyono]

18Z GFS shows a sheared system

Conditions according to the models will be MORE HOSTILE as this approaches the Caribbean. It has its most favorable conditions now

[Blown Away]

18z GFS... 108hrs ... 1002mb Likely Moderate TS... Intensity now about same as 12z... Track a hair SW of 12z... Ridging maybe slightly weaker than 12z, not real sure..

[Blown Away]

18z GFS... 150hrs ... TS status... Moving just N of PR... Little stronger and NW of 12z position... Moving just N of due W, DR in crosshairs??

[gatorcane]

Looks like it might head just north of Puerto Rico on this run so has shifted north from 12Z

[Blown Away]

18z GFS... 186hrs ... Strong TS... Just N of Cuba moving WNW...

[SFLcane]

Stair stepping might go into the gulf.

[Blown Away]

18z GFS... 204hrs ... Cat 1/2 Hurricane... Just N of Cuba's E coast moving WNW towards SFL/Keys/GOM???

[Siker]

18Z GFS shows a sheared system

Conditions according to the models will be MORE HOSTILE as this approaches the Caribbean. It has its most favorable conditions now

UKMET actually has this as a weak TD before strengthening near the islands, about 75 miles north of the islands. You don't have access to non-public UKMET data, right?