ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Alyono
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#461 Postby Alyono » Fri Aug 04, 2017 5:29 pm

Siker wrote:
Alyono wrote:18Z GFS shows a sheared system

Conditions according to the models will be MORE HOSTILE as this approaches the Caribbean. It has its most favorable conditions now


UKMET actually has this as a weak TD before strengthening near the islands, about 75 miles north of the islands. You don't have access to non-public UKMET data, right?


at home no, I'd have to check when at the office later tonight if we have it. We have all of the EC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#462 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 04, 2017 5:29 pm

Bombing now 985mb
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#463 Postby Nimbus » Fri Aug 04, 2017 5:30 pm

Image

Image
Last edited by Nimbus on Fri Aug 04, 2017 5:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#464 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 04, 2017 5:31 pm

978mb..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#465 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Aug 04, 2017 5:31 pm

Does any other model actually develop this down the road besides the GFS?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#466 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 04, 2017 5:32 pm

18z GFS... 210hrs ... 967mb Cat 2 Hurricane... Near landfall in the Florida Keys moving WNW to NW... Getting stronger by the hour...
Last edited by Blown Away on Fri Aug 04, 2017 5:33 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#467 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 04, 2017 5:32 pm

Not gonna end pretty :eek: GOM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#468 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 04, 2017 5:35 pm

18z GFS... 216hrs ... 965mb Cat 2/3 Hurricane... Landfall in the Florida Keys moving NW into FL Peninsula...
Last edited by Blown Away on Fri Aug 04, 2017 5:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#469 Postby Hammy » Fri Aug 04, 2017 5:35 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Does any other model actually develop this down the road besides the GFS?


Euro appears to be the only one that doesn't develop anything. But more often than not, when it's the sole model showing something, it's correct.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#470 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Aug 04, 2017 5:35 pm

Image


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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#471 Postby WeatherEmperor » Fri Aug 04, 2017 5:38 pm

Image


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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#472 Postby Blown Away » Fri Aug 04, 2017 5:39 pm

18z GFS... 228hrs ... 969mb Cat 2 Hurricane... Moved through Florida Keys, up the SW FL Coast, and appears to be moving NW towards FL Panhandle...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#473 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 04, 2017 5:43 pm

Facebook fake news forecasters want-to-bes' are going to go nuts tonight, "Cat 2 hurricane threatens FL Keys for next weekend", lol.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#474 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Fri Aug 04, 2017 5:45 pm

GFS is gonna GFS. Has almost destroyed the entire eastern seaboard now shifting to the gulf coast. Guarantee before tomorrow runs are done it's gonna bullseye New Orleans and then Houston. And some wonder why people hug the euro so much more :roll:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#475 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Fri Aug 04, 2017 5:47 pm

Siker wrote:
Alyono wrote:18Z GFS shows a sheared system

Conditions according to the models will be MORE HOSTILE as this approaches the Caribbean. It has its most favorable conditions now


UKMET actually has this as a weak TD before strengthening near the islands, about 75 miles north of the islands. You don't have access to non-public UKMET data, right?


UKMET has what looks like a moderate TS hearing WNW by D7, FYI.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#476 Postby N2FSU » Fri Aug 04, 2017 5:50 pm

Apalachicola landfall on this run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#477 Postby sma10 » Fri Aug 04, 2017 5:51 pm

gatorcane wrote:
Siker wrote:12z UKMET delaying development significantly, but also further northeast:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 17.9N 56.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.08.2017 132 18.7N 57.7W 1011 35
1200UTC 10.08.2017 144 20.3N 60.6W 1009 38


Graphical output:

Image


Now this (historically speaking) is a very provocative track.

Luckily, we don't see this path actually come to fruition often. But when it does nothing good comes from it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#478 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Fri Aug 04, 2017 5:52 pm

I don't need this any where near the Keys, It's good to know this is in the long range.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#479 Postby Siker » Fri Aug 04, 2017 5:56 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
Siker wrote:
Alyono wrote:18Z GFS shows a sheared system

Conditions according to the models will be MORE HOSTILE as this approaches the Caribbean. It has its most favorable conditions now


UKMET actually has this as a weak TD before strengthening near the islands, about 75 miles north of the islands. You don't have access to non-public UKMET data, right?


UKMET has what looks like a moderate TS hearing WNW by D7, FYI.


Yeah I saw on the RUC site. If that site had number labels on the isobars I'd be pretty content...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#480 Postby Hammy » Fri Aug 04, 2017 5:58 pm

What do the numbers next to the low pressure points mean?
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