ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Miami Storm Tracker]

in deed it is,
I was living in Key West in 1960 when Donna came across the Keys.

[weathaguyry]

0z GFS starting to run, let's see what it shows

[Sciencerocks]

0z GFS starting to run, let's see what it shows

Strengthen to 1009mb by 30 hours https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0&ypos=228

[WeatherEmperor]

Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[weathaguyry]

Less defined and a tad south at 24 hrs.

[weathaguyry]

36 hours

[weathaguyry]

1006mb TS at 42 hrs.

[Hammy]

Latest run looking someone more realistic compared to the last several runs so far.

[WeatherEmperor]

Look how tiny it is. Convective feedback issue perhaps??




Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

[weathaguyry]

78 hours

[slamdaddy]

everyone keeps saying realistic...exactly what should be real ? please explain the difference from the unrealistic to the realistic.

[weathaguyry]

everyone keeps saying realistic...exactly what should be real ? please explain the difference from the unrealistic to the realistic.

Given the conditions in the MDR are overall not horrible for development, but not that great either, a 980mb Hurricane would be unrealistic, but a 1004mb low-mid grade TS would be more realistic given the conditions that are present

[Hammy]

everyone keeps saying realistic...exactly what should be real ? please explain the difference from the unrealistic to the realistic.

It's showing slow development (which is more reasonable with the current conditions if it does develop) as opposed to exploding it into a major hurricane in 72 hours which it's been doing for the last several runs.

[TheStormExpert]

Look how tiny it is. Convective feedback issue perhaps??

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201708 ... a8d63d.png


Sent from my iPhone 7 using Tapatalk

It's not really that tiny so it's hard to say, but I'd the GFS is just playing us.

[slamdaddy]

I am going to ask for a tax refund since we are pouring our tax dollars into an unrealistic computer weather model.

[weathaguyry]

I am going to ask for a tax refund since we are pouring our tax dollars into an unrealistic computer weather model.

Well, a weak TS moving through the MDR isn't too unrealistic, but I see what you mean

[TheStormExpert]

Weakening as it approaches the NE Caribbean. Seems pretty realistic to me for August!

[SFLcane]

Over! Wave in the Caribbean...GFS

[Alyono]

it runs into a large upper low

As I said, conditions become very hostile as this approaches the Caribbean

[TheStormExpert]

I am going to ask for a tax refund since we are pouring our tax dollars into an unrealistic computer weather model.

No matter how many upgrades or overhauls this model gets it can't be fixed.