ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bamajammer4eva]

Last 5 model runs for late Tuesday Night=SW and weaker

[tarheelprogrammer]

Well, looks like a ULL forms on the GFS tonight and blasts it with shear right around the same spot as TD 4. People say that feature is not permanent, but here we are talking about it again. Good news is that it doesn't have to deal with dry air, well good for the system not for us but you get the point. GFS has trended toward other models, but regeneration is always an issue down the road. Unless it hits the islands and dies out.

[TheStormExpert]

it runs into a large upper low

As I said, conditions become very hostile as this approaches the Caribbean

But the GFS thinks there will be an anticyclone overhead.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I am going to ask for a tax refund since we are pouring our tax dollars into an unrealistic computer weather model.

No matter how many upgrades or overhauls this model gets it can't be fixed.

That leaves "King Euro" on an island of his own. If that model goes down like the GFS, uh oh.

[Alyono]

it runs into a large upper low

As I said, conditions become very hostile as this approaches the Caribbean

But the GFS thinks there will be an anticyclone overhead.

it's slightly west of the favorable part of the upper low and is in the SW shear zone

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like yet another weak short-lived named storm may be in the cards.

[slamdaddy]

no offense to the professional folks, but ya struggle to get a 48 - 72 hours forecast correct, much less beyond. evident by the 4" of rain received this morning at my locale that was not forecast. I love you man

[AxaltaRacing24]

Looks like yet another weak short-lived named storm may be in the cards.

Which is normal for this time of year in this part of the Caribbean graveyard. However, IMHO is this goes north of the Caribbean then it's going to blow up.

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like yet another weak short-lived named storm may be in the cards.

Which is normal for this time of year in this part of the Caribbean graveyard. However, IMHO is this goes north of the Caribbean then it's going to blow up.

I'm not so sure that is what's considered normal for almost mid-August in the MDR.

[Hammy]

Looks like yet another weak short-lived named storm may be in the cards.

Which is normal for this time of year in this part of the Caribbean graveyard. However, IMHO is this goes north of the Caribbean then it's going to blow up.

I'm not so sure that is what's considered normal for almost mid-August in the MDR.

Put things in perspective here--1999 was quite active and had only one short-lived storm by this point (and nothing since mid-June) while this year has already produced five. For whatever reason the first half of August has trended towards less active (especially in the MDR) since the late 1990s.

[floridasun78]

i think too early say going scare for fl i seen alot do it by few days show going out to sea so let wait don't but white flag out Friday i want beach here in miami wind was blowing because of strong high to east facebook going nut with models showing fl hit

[AxaltaRacing24]

Which is normal for this time of year in this part of the Caribbean graveyard. However, IMHO is this goes north of the Caribbean then it's going to blow up.

I'm not so sure that is what's considered normal for almost mid-August in the MDR.

Put things in perspective here--1999 was quite active and had only one short-lived storm by this point (and nothing since mid-June) while this year has already produced five.

This issue is that many people think that since the calendar says "August" that means that conditions should be mostly favorable by now. However, late August is really when the lid starts to come off and systems blow up. The Caribbean is transitioning towards favorable along with the rest of the basin and that is seen in the models.

[Hurricaneman]

It's getting organized and by Sunday it should become a depression and by Monday or Tuesday should fight it out with the Caribbean system for either the F name or G name, can't tell you which yet

[bamajammer4eva]

Which is normal for this time of year in this part of the Caribbean graveyard. However, IMHO is this goes north of the Caribbean then it's going to blow up.

I'm not so sure that is what's considered normal for almost mid-August in the MDR.

Put things in perspective here--1999 was quite active and had only one short-lived storm by this point (and nothing since mid-June) while this year has already produced five. For whatever reason the first half of August has trended towards less active (especially in the MDR) since the late 1990s.

Don't forget '04 which had a few US landfalls. We are awaiting the F storm now and that year didn't have Frances until 8/25. At this point in 2004 we were still awaiting Bonnie which formed on 8/9. We are not below average by any means quantity-wise despite the quality of the systems.

[AxaltaRacing24]

I'm not so sure that is what's considered normal for almost mid-August in the MDR.

Put things in perspective here--1999 was quite active and had only one short-lived storm by this point (and nothing since mid-June) while this year has already produced five. For whatever reason the first half of August has trended towards less active (especially in the MDR) since the late 1990s.

Don't forget '04 which had a few US landfalls. We are awaiting the F storm now and that year didn't have Frances until 8/25. At this point in 2004 we were still awaiting Bonnie which formed on 8/9. We are not below average by any means quantity-wise despite the quality of the systems.

I would not be surprised one bit if this season has around 20 named storms due to all this early activity.

[Hammy]

Euro dropped the system entirely.

[Alyono]

chance of development may be down to 10-20 percent now. No signs of organization. Too much SAL. Trough waiting near the Caribbean. Little model support

[bamajammer4eva]

No change in development chances by NHC officially though wouldn't be surprised to see adjustments downward soon if models continue to trend that way.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 5 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms extending from the Cabo Verde Islands
southwestward across the tropical Atlantic are associated with an
elongated area of low pressure. This system remains poorly
organized, but environmental conditions are expected to become a
little more favorable for this system to consolidate, and a tropical
depression could form early next week while it moves toward the
west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[chaser1]

chance of development may be down to 10-20 percent now. No signs of organization. Too much SAL. Trough waiting near the Caribbean. Little model support

Really? These eyes are seeing increased organization and an increase of convection. I think we're on the verge of substantial & sustained organization, by both invests.

[Alyono]

chance of development may be down to 10-20 percent now. No signs of organization. Too much SAL. Trough waiting near the Caribbean. Little model support

Really? These eyes are seeing increased organization and an increase of convection. I think we're on the verge of substantial & sustained organization, by both invests.

seeing a very elongated low with incredibly disorganized convection