ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[tailgater]

This buoy will need to be watched the next few days.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/plot_wind_pres.php?station=42057&uom=E&time_diff=-5&time_label=EST

[Alyono]

surface feature appears to be near 13N, 78W. It's well SW of the convection

[Nimbus]

The low level vort is at the same latitude as it was a few days ago.
Maybe Texas will luck out but the models are seeing some evolution with the ridging.

[Alyono]

Yep, and if it does become a TS before reaching to Yucatan, it will probably track a bit farther north and closer to Texas.

the models that develop this before reaching the Yucatan have it remaining in the BOC. They indicate a hard left turn

Yeah but it also seems like the models are initializing the vorticity south of where the system is beginning to develop.

think the models are spot on. That;s a mid level feature that is looking very impressive. The surface feature is about where the models have it

[GCANE]

Looks like its making a slow recovery from an outflow boundary that swept across its LLC from the south a couple hours ago.
Starting to see some small Cumulus Nimbus beginning to fire and circulate CCW again.

[GCANE]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 051445
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SAT 05 AUGUST 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z AUGUST 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-066

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN SEA)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 06/1800Z A. 07/1130Z, 1730Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0207A CYCLONE
C. 06/1400Z C. 07/0800Z
D. 16.0N 81.0W D. 17.0N 85.0W
E. 06/1730Z TO 06/2130Z E. 07/1100Z TO 07/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY
FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS develops in BOC and goes to Veracruz,Mexico.

[stormreader]

Board awfully quiet for a gathering tropical storm in the Caribbean.

[gatorcane]

Board awfully quiet for a gathering tropical storm in the Caribbean.

Central America / BOC / Mexico storms don't get a lot of interest since few people live in these areas on this board.

I agree this one is looking better and should have higher development chances than 99L.

[GeneratorPower]

Board awfully quiet for a gathering tropical storm in the Caribbean.

Partly because it doesn't look to threaten the USA and partly because the board has lost a lot of folks because of the 10+ year hurricane drought. It will take another busy landfall season to generate a new crop of enthusiasts.

[tropicwatch]

The circulation is looking better with convection building on the north side.

[KatDaddy]

Glad many of the model runs continue to keep Invest 90L well S of the Middle and Upper TX Coast but will be interesting to see what happens as it moves through the W/NW Caribbean Sea early next week.

[stormreader]

The circulation is looking better with convection building on the north side.

http://tropicwatch.info/90L080520171630Z.gif

Classic look to it Recent years have seen systems in formation that go through ups and downs in their evolution toward cyclone status. Not much doubt about this one. Wonder if it might be stronger than expected in Caribbean. Definitely look for a strong tropical storm in Carribean.

[gatorcane]

SFWMD plot, 12Z:

[gatorcane]

Even if it is stronger in the Caribbean than models think, the ridge over the Gulf appears quite strong which should keep this well south of the Northern Gulf coast and even Texas. Of course nothing is certain in the tropics but BOC->Mexico is what it looks like to me.

[stormreader]

Even if it is stronger in the Caribbean than models think, the ridge over the Gulf appears quite strong which should keep this well south of the Northern Gulf coast and even Texas. Of course nothing is certain in the tropics but BOC->Mexico is what it looks like to me.

Yeah, that's what the chart shows. An extension of the Bermuda ridge beneath the upper trough over the SE. I had thought that a trek toward S Texas was very possible, that no so now. I sort of bucked my own predilection for climo. The storm is pretty far south for an early August crossing and then NW toward Brownsville. Allen in 1980 treked to Brownsville, but it moved along the northern Yucatan and then the GOM. In early August, this storm in the deep tropics is more likely to remain there (according to climo). Will still keep an eye on it though.

[NDG]

The circulation is looking better with convection building on the north side.

http://tropicwatch.info/90L080520171630Z.gif

That's all in the mid levels to remind everyone, nothing but streaming easterlies underneath it, once it gets to the SW Caribbean where trades slow down is where it will have a chance to develop an LLC.

[tarheelprogrammer]

Board awfully quiet for a gathering tropical storm in the Caribbean.

Central America / BOC / Mexico storms don't get a lot of interest since few people live in these areas on this board.

I agree this one is looking better and should have higher development chances than 99L.

This is true, but even though I am a negative follower sometimes (which I know most of you do not notice at all ) I still enjoy following Atlantic cyclones. They are usually the best ones to follow, because they have to fight so many more elements than cyclones in other basins. This is no doubt on its way to becoming Franklin.

[NDG]

Even if it is stronger in the Caribbean than models think, the ridge over the Gulf appears quite strong which should keep this well south of the Northern Gulf coast and even Texas. Of course nothing is certain in the tropics but BOC->Mexico is what it looks like to me.

Yeah, that's what the chart shows. An extension of the Bermuda ridge beneath the upper trough over the SE. I had thought that a trek toward S Texas was very possible, that no so now. I sort of bucked my own predilection for climo. The storm is pretty far south for an early August crossing and then NW toward Brownsville. Allen in 1980 treked to Brownsville, but it moved along the northern Yucatan and then the GOM. In early August, this storm in the deep tropics is more likely to remain there (according to climo). Will still keep an eye on it though.

Late next weekend into the following week is when anything that develops across the eastern Caribbean has to be watched as the Bermuda ridge takes its usual position over Bermuda leaving a weakness across the south central US.

[Craters]

Here's a view of the shear gradient.
Blue line is the axis.
Its firing right on the edge.
A few hot towers could get this spinning.

http://i.imgur.com/BGD3cJp.png

GCane (or anybody else who'd like to chime in) -- Could you take a minute to explain the relationship between your observation of the shear axis and the enhanced convection below it? Is it because the shear axis is acting like a jet in this situation? High-volume ventilation?

Thanks in advance!