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AFDFLG
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
330 AM MST TUE SEP 30 2003
.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND
RECORD WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO NORTHERN ARIZONA AGAIN TODAY.
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY ALLOWING A PACIFIC
WEATHER SYSTEM TO APPROACH THE STATE. EXPECT SOME COOLING ALONG WITH
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON THURSDAY...AND CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WX OVER
AZ TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD TEMPS EXPECTED AGAIN. THIS SYSTEM BEGINS
TO WEAKEN ON WED WITH 850-500 MB THICKNESSES DECREASING ENOUGH TO
LOWER TEMPS BY A FEW DEGREES...AND NO LONGER NEAR RECORD LEVELS.
OVERNIGHT WED AND INTO THU...AN EPAC STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
STATE BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS. MODELS
HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE DETAILS BUT CONSISTENT WITH THE
APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM SO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE BY THU WITH PCPN. HAVE SCHC/CHC SHOWERS IN
MOST LOCATIONS FOR THU BUT MAY HAVE TO INCREASE POPS...ESPECIALLY IN
THE NRN ZONES...AS THE DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR. UNSETTLED WX
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO FRI WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS FALLING TO BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN MANY DAYS. ALSO EXPECT SOME BREEZY
WINDS TO ACCOMPANY THIS WEATHER SYSTEM BEGINNING WED AND CONTINUING
INTO FRI.
.EXTENDED...SYSTEM EJECTS TO THE EAST ON SAT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT IN
THE WX AND DECREASED CHANCES OF PCPN. ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN ACROSS AZ...HOWEVER...FOR A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON SHOWERS RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BY TUE...MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER EPAC DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH
AZ WITH AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
Dennis
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