ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

Latest ASCAT, not much to it right now.

[Siker]

UKMET picks this up:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 17.0N 87.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.08.2017 48 17.0N 87.0W 1007 27
1200UTC 08.08.2017 60 17.4N 87.7W 1004 35
0000UTC 09.08.2017 72 18.3N 89.6W 1003 29
1200UTC 09.08.2017 84 18.8N 91.9W 1001 40
0000UTC 10.08.2017 96 19.0N 94.2W 997 42
1200UTC 10.08.2017 108 19.1N 96.2W 996 43
0000UTC 11.08.2017 120 14.9N 93.7W 1005 37
1200UTC 11.08.2017 132 CEASED TRACKING

[shah83]

HWRF is rather aggressive so far in the 00z run for 90l.

[Alyono]

HWRF backs off the cat 3 landfall and instead goes with a cat 2

[Siker]

HWRF backs off the cat 3 landfall and instead goes with a cat 2

00z GFS and HWRF both show this taking a gulp of dry air around the time it emerges from Yucatán, slowing organization for a bit.

[Siker]

Euro says that by this time tomorrow we have a TD, borderline TS.

[HURAKAN]

Up to 60/80 by the NHC

[Alyono]

EC coming in quite a bit stronger

[Alyono]

EC at 984mb at landfall just south of Tampico

[Siker]

EC at 984mb at landfall just south of Tampico

Puts Tampico directly in the right front quadrant.

[Alyono]

EC at 984mb at landfall just south of Tampico

Puts Tampico directly in the right front quadrant.

comes in at about 21.6N. That would keep Tampico out of the eyewall. HOWEVER, it would put them in the area with upslope flow. That could cause a repeat of Diana or Gert for them

[Hammy]

EC at 984mb at landfall just south of Tampico

What's the wind at that point?

[Siker]

EC at 984mb at landfall just south of Tampico

What's the wind at that point?

65kts on the nose.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

The current diffluence in an upper level wind looks to be a favorable condition for severe thunderstorm cluster development (anvils) within the rotation.

[Alyono]

adjusted 0Z EC has peak winds at landfall greater than 70 kts (probably around 75 kts, though I only plot in 10 kt increments)

[Thetxhurricanemaster]

adjusted 0Z EC has peak winds at landfall greater than 70 kts (probably around 75 kts, though I only plot in 10 kt increments)

Question ? Is south Texas still in play ??? Because clearly models have been shifting back North

[TheStormExpert]

06z GFS bombs it out @ 959 MSLP before going into Mexico FWIW.

[Alyono]

adjusted 0Z EC has peak winds at landfall greater than 70 kts (probably around 75 kts, though I only plot in 10 kt increments)

Question ? Is south Texas still in play ??? Because clearly models have been shifting back North

only a slight chance

[xironman]

Finally has some decent convergence

[northjaxpro]

06z GFS bombs it out @ 959 MSLP before going into Mexico FWIW.

Well, there is always this type of potential, provided if the upper level conditions are condcive for a tropical cyclone to do this.