ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Have not had a chance to look closely at this until now. I am in Europe. but it appears there is a quickly developing low level circ early this morning. I would not be surprised if Recon find franklin later today.

[GCANE]

Coming up on DMAX.
Strong cell now firing very close to the CoC (Red X marks the spot).

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

Recon canceled for Sunday

Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in
association with a strong tropical wave located over the
west-central Caribbean Sea. This system is moving
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, and a tropical depression or
tropical storm could form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea before
it reaches the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico late Monday or early
Tuesday. Even if formation does not occur before the system reaches
the Yucatan peninsula, a tropical depression or tropical storm could
form over the Bay of Campeche by midweek. The Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft scheduled for today has been canceled, but a
new mission has been scheduled for Monday, if necessary. Interests
along the coasts of Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula
should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[NDG]

It never fails, just because there's a mid level vorticity it does not mean that a surface circulation will form in an instant, all along there was a screaming easterly flow at the surface, it does not happen. Something that I learned from wxman57 a long time ago. Watch for a surface circulation finally start taking shape later today in the GOH and become better defined by tomorrow as surface pressure in the area has fallen 2-3 mb and trades have slowed down.

[Aric Dunn]

It never fails, just because there's a mid level vorticity it does not mean that a surface circulation will form in an instant, all along there was a screaming easterly flow at the surface, it does not happen. Something that I learned from wxman57 a long time ago. Watch for a surface circulation finally start taking shape later today in the GOH and become better defined by tomorrow as surface pressure in the area has fallen 2-3 mb and trades have slowed down.

Well knowing the difference between a mid level circ and a low level circ is key. Being able to identify low level cloud motion vs mid level is important. If you look at morning visible there is clear signs of low level curvature and sourherly and southwesterly low level flow in tje otherwise ...as you said.. screaming easterly flow in the carrib. With that said around tje Nw portion of the convection appears to have the most low level turning.

[GCANE]

Got a new tower firing right on the bulls-eye.
I think we got something.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=4kmsrbdc&storm_identifier=AL902017&starting_image=2017AL90_4KMSRBDC_201708060800.jpg

[NDG]

It never fails, just because there's a mid level vorticity it does not mean that a surface circulation will form in an instant, all along there was a screaming easterly flow at the surface, it does not happen. Something that I learned from wxman57 a long time ago. Watch for a surface circulation finally start taking shape later today in the GOH and become better defined by tomorrow as surface pressure in the area has fallen 2-3 mb and trades have slowed down.

Well knowing the difference between a mid level circ and a low level circ is key. Being able to identify low level cloud motion vs mid level is important. If you look at morning visible there is clear signs of low level curvature and sourherly and southwesterly low level flow in tje otherwise ...as you said.. screaming easterly flow in the carrib. With that said around tje Nw portion of the convection appears to have the most low level turning.

Yeah this morning a much better surface broad circulation starting to take shape, but yesterday it was a different story underneath the mid level circulation.

[NDG]

This is where I am starting to see a broad area of low pressure starting to get going at the surface, elongated though. IMO.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

As of 12:00 UTC Aug 06, 2017:

Location: 15.0°N 81.1°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 90 NM

[Alyono]

going to have to lift a bit northward in order to clear Honduras. All models have it turning NW later today, so it SHOULD miss land

[Aric Dunn]

This is where I am starting to see a broad area of low pressure starting to get going at the surface, elongated though. IMO.

http://i.imgur.com/IgfBpfo.jpg

I'm looking more north near the edge of the convection close to the NW side.

[tropicwatch]

Waiting on a WinSAT, late in uploading. Yesterday unfortunately it missed it totally.

(Great they just changed the upcoming pass to early evening tonight. Apparently no pass this morning. ASCAT is scheduled for about an hour from now.)

[NDG]

You can see the broad circulation starting to get going just west of the deep convection, east of the Nicaragua/Honduras border.

[wxman57]

Just looked at the operation and ensemble runs (94 tracks) from the EC, GFS, and Canadian models. Not a single ensemble member takes the center anywhere close to Texas. They're all centered near Tampico. You rarely see that kind of agreement.

I see the NHC is starting to give up on 99L. I believe that development chances need to be "high" (70% or more) for them to consider initiating PTC advisories. We don't have that luxury. Started advisories last Thursday forecasting a landfall near Tampico of a possible hurricane.

Development chances about 98.23% now...

[RL3AO]

A good chance to be our first hurricane. At least it would end that 2013 comparison.

[Portastorm]

Just looked at the operation and ensemble runs (94 tracks) from the EC, GFS, and Canadian models. Not a single ensemble member takes the center anywhere close to Texas. They're all centered near Tampico. You rarely see that kind of agreement.

I see the NHC is starting to give up on 99L. I believe that development chances need to be "high" (70% or more) for them to consider initiating PTC advisories. We don't have that luxury. Started advisories last Thursday forecasting a landfall near Tampico of a possible hurricane.

Development chances about 98.23% now...

That's too bad as we really could have used that rain here in drought-parched south central Texas.

[tailgater]

Pressures continue to slowly fall in the western and central GOM, which should allow for that NW movement. The key to how close it gets to the Tex/Mex border is when and how fast they start to rise again next week.

[GCANE]

Obvious west winds showing up on Vis
Broad turning noted on obs.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like our first weak vort/circ has develop and moved out from under the covection at 16.94° N 81.09° W . Now it just needs to refire convection

[srainhoutx]

Wave axis appears to have shifted from a SW to NE orientation to S to N suggesting environmental conditions are becoming much more favorable and the Easterly trades are slowing as 90L approaches the Guatemala/Honduras Border. This is about 24 hours faster than what was expected yesterday. My hunch is we will see a much more strongly word TWO at 2:00 PM EDT from the NHC. TC Genesis Probabilities over the next 48 hours have increased rather dramatically compared to yesterday in The NW Caribbean Sea/Gulf of Honduras.