ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[stormreader]

I don't know, but this looks like a tropical cyclone has formed.

[txwatcher91]

It spit out a few outflow boundaries on the NW side. Still a vigorous MLC it looks like but weak at the surface. I expect that will quickly change tonight with DMAX.

[Siker]

Euro continues to trend stronger in the near term, 998mb before landfall early Tuesday morning.

[wxman57]

No big surprise. Should have been 90% 3 days ago. Meets the PTC criteria now. NHC should initiate advisories shortly.

So just to be clear..no to Texas at this time....sir?

Nope, still looks like Tampico area.

[Exalt]

This has to be at least a TD, this is kinda ridiculous.

[Alyono]

This has to be at least a TD, this is kinda ridiculous.

no LLC yet. None expected until tomorrow morning. once it forms though, rapid intensification is expected

[stormreader]

This has to be at least a TD, this is kinda ridiculous.

That relatively small and compact white ball spinning on the south side sure looks lower level to my untrained eyes. Maybe someone can give some facts and figures to say why its not so. I am obviously an untrained observer.

[cycloneye]

985 mbs on second landfall in Mexico near Veracruz.

[Aric Dunn]

This has to be at least a TD, this is kinda ridiculous.

That relatively small and compact white ball spinning on the south side sure looks lower level to my untrained eyes. Maybe someone can give some facts and figures to say why its not so. I am obviously an untrained observer.

Yeah plnety of evidence to make the case for closed surface circ. two fairly well definded circ are quite easy to see. surface obs also point to it being closed. if that vort develops convection over the next few hours. then its very highly likely that a TD/TS

[Alyono]

This is NOT a TD or a TS. The convective blowup from this morning is now mainly cirrus. The next one, which should occur overnight, will form the cyclone.

Just need some patience. This could end up as a 3 in the Gulf. Some many similarities to Karl, expect toward Tampico instead of Veracruz

[AxaltaRacing24]

You can see it slowly tightening up but still has a little ways to go.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/ ... mmb-slider

[stormreader]

Perhaps not as much red as you would like to see, but it does look like there is rotation in the precip. Will be patient.

[TheAustinMan]

Expecting a PTC now that the best track has been updated to indicate disturbance 07L.

Code: Select all

AL, 07, 2017080618,   , BEST,   0, 152N,  815W,  30, 1008, DB,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1011,  120,  90,   0,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,      SEVEN, M,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 017, TRANSITIONED, alB02017 to al072017,

[TheStormExpert]

Future Franklin will likely make a run at major hurricane status, no surprise since the BoC and Western Caribbean seem to be the only favorable spots in town right now in the Atlantic.

[Aric Dunn]

If a plane was out there it would very likely find a closed circ. bu as we know the NHC like to be on schedule.

[gatorcane]

looks well on its way. Assuming this goes into the BOC->Mexico this would make yet another BOC->Mexico system 7 out of the last 8 seasons.

[stormreader]

looks well on its way. Assuming this goes into the BOC->Mexico this would make yet another BOC->Mexico system 7 out of the last 8 seasons.

And those have been quiet seasons for the US mainland. A pattern....will this year break the mold (US mainland)?? Just coincidence, probably...not indicative of any larger meaning.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks plenty closed. and defined enough. storms have been declared for way less than this..

[Nimbus]

The Yucatan peninsula will take some steam out of TD7 and it would take at least 48 hours in the BOC to reach major hurricane status. Definitely looks like Franklin though.

[1900hurricane]

Ehh, I wouldn't call it closed when using the 25 km ASCAT data from METOP-A.