ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

NRL with the new header 07L SEVEN.

[Aric Dunn]

I would not be surprised if they upgraded at 5pm given the data.

A much more defined circ has not left the convection behind.. its clearly a TD.. even with the multiple vorts.

[Hammy]

What's the shear compared to what was expected? It seems high but at the same time I wasn't expecting development this soon in the first place.

[northjaxpro]

I would not be surprised if they upgraded at 5pm given the data.

A much more defined circ has not left the convection behind.. its clearly a TD.. even with the multiple vorts.

I agree this is a TD at the very least now. I am anticipating the advisories to come out at any time shortly from NHC.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Doesn't have a sufficiently well-defined center to be labelled a tropical depression. As latent heat from 90L's convection weakens the upper-level trough to its north though, shear should relent, convection will continue to expand, and a circulation should get going.

Should be Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven at 21z.

[stormreader]

I would not be surprised if they upgraded at 5pm given the data.

A much more defined circ has not left the convection behind.. its clearly a TD.. even with the multiple vorts.

I agree this is a TD at the very least now. I am anticipating the advisories to come out at any time shortly from NHC.

Hear 'ya. Might be a very quick upgrade to tropical storm Franklin.

[wxman57]

Still a tropical wave. No well-defined LLC with organized convection around it.

[vbhoutex]

NHC will be initiating advisories soon.

I see that the best track now has #90L identified as 07, meaning the NHC will, indeed, initiate advisories this afternoon on PTC 7.

This is from TropicsWatch.

[Aric Dunn]

Still a tropical wave. No well-defined LLC with organized convection around it.

take a closer look... you know as well as the rest convection around the center does not have to always "near" the center ... there is plenty of persistant convection withing the circ.

[northjaxpro]

The ULL is slowly moving out now and the anticyclone over 99L is finally establishing its influence with the system. This vortex is looking about as good as it has during its existence to this juncture. There is sufficient evidence already reviewed of a closed low level circulation. This will be declared tonight imo.

I have seen NHC designate systems in the past which were much ragged in organization than 99L pertaining to ill defined low level circulations.

[Blown Away]

Amazing how consistently juicy that small BOC area is...

[tropicwatch]

Still a tropical wave. No well-defined LLC with organized convection around it.

Looks like convection is starting to build there.

[GCANE]

Looks like it just kicked in.
Cirrus is clearing out from a updraft / outflow spike.

[gatorcane]

18Z guidance:

[tropicwatch]

Pretty good pressure drop Station 42057 - Western Caribbean - 195 NM WSW of Negril, Jamaica 16.908 N 81.422 W (16°54'30" N 81°25'18" W)

From 1010 to 1008.9 in an hour.

[Hammy]

Not closed, but fairly close. Red circle is where the LLC will likely form in the next 8-12 hours if one of the northern vortices doesn't take over.

[Aric Dunn]

http://i.imgur.com/MRRgZLf.png

Not closed, but fairly close. Red circle is where the LLC will likely form in the next 8-12 hours if one of the northern vortices doesn't take over.

north where the two vorts are above you upper most arrow. have to look where convection is at it greatest for the a circ to form..

[cycloneye]

NHC will initialize advisories at 5 PM on POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SEVEN

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/894288460353286144

[stormreader]

http://i.imgur.com/MRRgZLf.png

Not closed, but fairly close. Red circle is where the LLC will likely form in the next 8-12 hours if one of the northern vortices doesn't take over.

north where the two vorts are above you upper most arrow. have to look where convection is at it greatest for the a circ to form..

I think that's right Aric. I know its only an IR pic. But you can see where the towers bubbled in the last hour just to the north and northeast of where it looks like there is a center.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/90L/imagery/avn-animated.gif

[Kingarabian]

Finally a decent Atlantic system to track. Hope Mexico is prepared for this.