Texas Summer 2017

[Ntxw]

I think flood watches may be warranted soon but unsure. Red River to I-20 might be the sweet spot.

In other news the Arctic is getting cold early in what has been a slower melt season than the past several years. Near freezing average I believe which is a tad ahead of schedule.

In 3ish weeks we will be moving to the fall thread for Sept-Oct-Nov

[bubba hotep]

Snow in the Colorado Rockies this week as well. Fall is coming!

[Portastorm]

Sorry but it's kinda hard to wrap my head around the concept of "Fall" when it was 102 degrees here yesterday. And still no hint of rain in drought-parched Texas.

And I'm really not trying to be a Negative Ned ... just reporting facts from south central Texas.

[Ntxw]

Sorry but it's kinda hard to wrap my head around the concept of "Fall" when it was 102 degrees here yesterday. And still no hint of rain in drought-parched Texas.

And I'm really not trying to be a Negative Ned ... just reporting facts from south central Texas.

You have every reason to be! It has been a tale of two worlds north vs south of Waco. This concept just reinforces the idea of feedbacks. Drought begets heat and more drought and rains begets cool and more rains until something large scale changes things.

It has been a hot summer for KAUS

[Portastorm]

Through August 5th, Camp Mabry has had 29 days of 100 degrees or higher while the airport has recorded 17 days of the same.

[hriverajr]

Sorry but it's kinda hard to wrap my head around the concept of "Fall" when it was 102 degrees here yesterday. And still no hint of rain in drought-parched Texas.

And I'm really not trying to be a Negative Ned ... just reporting facts from south central Texas.

You have every reason to be! It has been a tale of two worlds north vs south of Waco. This concept just reinforces the idea of feedbacks. Drought begets heat and more drought and rains begets cool and more rains until something large scale changes things.

It has been a hot summer for KAUS

Been hot here too.. but have had some decent rains.

[aggiecutter]

2.00" of rain so far in Texarkana with more on the way.

[hriverajr]

Sorry but it's kinda hard to wrap my head around the concept of "Fall" when it was 102 degrees here yesterday. And still no hint of rain in drought-parched Texas.

And I'm really not trying to be a Negative Ned ... just reporting facts from south central Texas.

You have every reason to be! It has been a tale of two worlds north vs south of Waco. This concept just reinforces the idea of feedbacks. Drought begets heat and more drought and rains begets cool and more rains until something large scale changes things.

It has been a hot summer for KAUS

Been hot here too.. but have had some decent rains.

In fact radar beginning to light up to our southwest again..

[South Texas Storms]

WPC thinks the flash flood risk will be increasing across south central Texas tonight into tomorrow and I agree with them based on the latest high-res models.

Here is their latest QPF discussion:

THIS CONVECTION WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND ANTICIPATE
CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THE DAY MONDAY ALONG
REMNANT BOUNDARIES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX AND APPROACHING THE GULF
COAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT COULD ACTUALLY
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX...AS
CONVECTION MAY TEND TO GET HUNG UP AND LOSE SOME OF ITS
PROGRESSIVE NATURE. WEAK MEAN FLOW...HIGH PWATS...REMNANT
BOUNDARIES/OUTFLOW...AND DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVELS IN BETWEEN THE
UPPER JET TO THE NORTH AND THE UPPER HIGH TO THE SOUTHWEST...ALL
POINT TOWARDS AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PERIOD. THINK A LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OVER
CENTRAL/EASTERN TX...BUT TOUGH TO REALLY PINPOINT THE EXACT TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THIS THREAT AT THIS TIME. SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE
TO CLOSELY MONITOR. OVERALL FAVORED A HIGH RES CONSENSUS FOR QPF
OVER THIS REGION...WITH THE MOST WEIGHT GIVEN THE 12Z HRW ARW2 AND
NSSL WRF...WHICH SEEMED TO SHOW THE MOST PLAUSIBLE CONVECTIVE
PROPAGATION EVOLUTION INTO MONDAY. THIS RESULTED IN A SOUTHWARD
SHIFT FROM OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST.

[Cpv17]

WPC thinks the flash flood risk will be increasing across south central Texas tonight into tomorrow and I agree with them based on the latest high-res models.

Here is their latest QPF discussion:

THIS CONVECTION WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND ANTICIPATE
CLUSTERS OF STORMS TO CONTINUE RIGHT INTO THE DAY MONDAY ALONG
REMNANT BOUNDARIES OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX AND APPROACHING THE GULF
COAST. THERE IS A CHANCE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT COULD ACTUALLY
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TX...AS
CONVECTION MAY TEND TO GET HUNG UP AND LOSE SOME OF ITS
PROGRESSIVE NATURE. WEAK MEAN FLOW...HIGH PWATS...REMNANT
BOUNDARIES/OUTFLOW...AND DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVELS IN BETWEEN THE
UPPER JET TO THE NORTH AND THE UPPER HIGH TO THE SOUTHWEST...ALL
POINT TOWARDS AN ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PERIOD. THINK A LOCALLY
SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT MAY DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OVER
CENTRAL/EASTERN TX...BUT TOUGH TO REALLY PINPOINT THE EXACT TIMING
AND LOCATION OF THIS THREAT AT THIS TIME. SO WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE
TO CLOSELY MONITOR. OVERALL FAVORED A HIGH RES CONSENSUS FOR QPF
OVER THIS REGION...WITH THE MOST WEIGHT GIVEN THE 12Z HRW ARW2 AND
NSSL WRF...WHICH SEEMED TO SHOW THE MOST PLAUSIBLE CONVECTIVE
PROPAGATION EVOLUTION INTO MONDAY. THIS RESULTED IN A SOUTHWARD
SHIFT FROM OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST.

Rain in south central TX? I'll believe that when I actually see it lol

[JDawg512]

There's definitely a noticeable change in the weather today. Pretty windy and you can feel the moisture in the air. If this was Spring, I'd say it's one of those days right before a severe outbreak. We don't need any flooding but wouldn't mind 2-3 inches falling over the next 48 hours as long as it's not all at once.

[Portastorm]

I'll believe it when I see it about the rain but at least we were below 100 today.

Small victories.

[bubba hotep]

Flash Flood Watch up for N. Texas

[Ntxw]

Storms have fired NW of DFW. Most guidance forms a complex with them and moves them through DFW this evening

[bubba hotep]

A number of warnings are flying but SPC says that a watch is unlikely

[South Texas Storms]

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will likely impact much of the state over the next few days as a disturbance interacts with a stalled frontal boundary and tropical moisture across Texas. Flash flooding and gusty winds will be the main threats from the heaviest storms. The greatest risk of flooding currently looks to be between IH-10 and IH-20.

Soon to be Tropical Storm Franklin is forecast to track into Mexico (between Veracruz and Tampico) on Thursday, possibly as a Hurricane. The only weather impacts from this storm here will be increasing swells and rain chances across the lower Texas coastline.

Bring on the rain!

[TexasBreeze]

My area is under the 2-3 inch contour on that map (northern Houston). The map shows that there doesn't need to be a tropical system impact to cause widespread rains. Hope it reaches areas around Austin/ San Antonio too. The 18z GFS is further south with heavier rains.

[Portastorm]

I'll believe it when I see it about the rain but at least we were below 100 today.

Small victories.

So much for that "small victory." We ended up 102 at the airport and 101 at Camp Mabry. 30th day of triple digit heat in 2017.

[South Texas Storms]

I'll believe it when I see it about the rain but at least we were below 100 today.

Small victories.

So much for that "small victory." We ended up 102 at the airport and 101 at Camp Mabry. 30th day of triple digit heat in 2017.

Be patient! Good chances for rain are on the horizon! See my post above

[bubba hotep]

Looks like this first batch of rain might totally miss DFW... It looked good earlier but the eastward moving storms have died and the complex has taking on more southerly motion.