ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[vbhoutex]

This year we have the new designation "potential tropical cyclone". Thinking back (really don't recall), for the five named storms so far, how many of them were designated "tropical depression" in the course of their existence?

Arlene and Emily.

So just two. With that new designation, seems like it makes it more likely that the designation "depression" gets skipped. I guess after that label and then further review, the finding is that the system needs an upgrade to full tropical storm. Wonder if that pattern will continue, in that we won't see the label depression used so much. Wonder also if this system will skip the depression label and go straight to "Franklin".

Even though I haven't been following all day my guess is that it will skip depression status and go to TS. There have been close to TS force winds reported with this system for quite a few hours from what I have read and it seems the only thing lacking has been a closed circulation. Once that sets up I would expect the intensification to begin in earnest and thus probably skip the TD designation.

[tarheelprogrammer]

The 18z run of the GFS has the system further south in the BOC. It is also a tad weaker. May not make a run at hurricane strength. Hopefully it trends even further south, and it ends up sparing Mexico.

[GCANE]

Yeterday's popup storms over DR and PR and today's popups over Cuba have broken down the TUTT that was over them and opened up an outflow channel driven by the ULL at 21N 64W

[SouthDadeFish]

Looks like the surface low is starting to become better defined. Almost enough for classification. The odds of TS Franklin forming before landfall in the Yucatan appear to be around 95% in my opinion.

[AxaltaRacing24]

If this isn't closed it's very close. Extremely healthy looking.

[Hurricaneman]

Im thinking depression by 11

[MississippiWx]

The 18z run of the GFS has the system further south in the BOC. It is also a tad weaker. May not make a run at hurricane strength. Hopefully it trends even further south, and it ends up sparing Mexico.

Until the Euro says so, it's not happening. The GFS has been pure garbage in the tropics this year. Sure, it gets something right here and there, but, as they say about blind squirrels...

[Kazmit]

Looks very impressive now. Nice flare-up visible in the last few frames.

[lrak]

conditions at 42057 as of
(6:00 pm EST)
2300 GMT on 08/06/2017:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone: Select
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): E ( 100 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 15.5 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 23.3 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.78 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.02 in ( Falling )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 78.3 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.8 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 78.3 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 81.5 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 17.5 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 19.4 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed, Wind Gust and Atmospheric Pressure Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

[Hammy]

Outflow seems like it's building as it's expanding west faster than the system is moving.

[beoumont]

Is it true that 80% of the time a flying pig appears in the NW Caribbean, a tropical cyclone develops before breakfast?

[cycloneye]

Nice loop from GOES-16 as sun goes down.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/894340150104399872

[tailgater]

Shows up nicely on IR, I think this going to deepen a good bit tonite'
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/07L/flash-rb-long.html

[cycloneye]

Expected to become a Tropical Storm overnight

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
800 PM EDT Sun Aug 06 2017

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM OVERNIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 82.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

[tailgater]

Conditions at 42057 as of
(6:30 pm EST)
2330 GMT on 08/06/2017:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone: Select
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 120 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 31.1 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 38.9 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.79 in
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 77.0 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.8 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 76.3 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 35.0 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 38.9 kts

[gatorcane]

RGB loop, what I like to use at night:

[Hypercane_Kyle]

...TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...
11:00 PM EDT Sun Aug 6
Location: 16.4°N 83.0°W
Moving: WNW at 13 mph
Min pressure: 1006 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph

About time, to be Frank

[weathaguyry]

WE HAVE FRANKLIN!!!

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

wow that organised rather quicker than i expected.

[weathaguyry]

Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072017
1100 PM EDT Sun Aug 06 2017

Last-light visible satellite pictures from GOES-13 and GOES-16
indicated that the low-level circulation of the disturbance had
become better defined and was located near the southwestern edge of
the main convective mass. NOAA Buoy 42057, located about 90 n mi
northeast of the center, has reported peak 1-minute winds around 35
kt during the past few hours and a gust to 43 kt. Because the
system has developed a closed circulation and well-defined center,
it is now classified as a tropical storm. Franklin becomes the
sixth tropical storm of the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season.

The upper-level outflow is beginning to expand over the western
portion of the circulation, indicating that the shear over the
system is decreasing. The global models are predicting that
Franklin will remain in a low-shear environment during the next
several days, and the only limiting factor for intensification
appears to be land interaction. Additional strengthening is
expected before the cyclone reaches the Yucatan peninsula in about
24 hours. After the system moves over the Bay of Campeche, warm
waters and favorable upper-level winds should allow for
restrengthening, and although not explicitly indicated in the
official forecast, Franklin could become a hurricane before it makes
final landfall in mainland Mexico. The NHC forecast is closest to
the higher SHIPS guidance at 24 hours, and is near the intensity
consensus and HCCA models after that time.

The initial motion estimate is 295/11. Franklin is forecast to
move west-northwestward during the next several days to the south
of a mid-level ridge that should remain in place over the northern
Gulf of Mexico. The track model guidance has trended slightly
southward after 48 hours, and the new NHC track forecast has been
adjusted in that direction. The NHC forecast remains near the
consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 16.4N 83.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 17.4N 84.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 18.5N 87.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 19.5N 89.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/0000Z 20.2N 91.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 10/0000Z 20.9N 95.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 21.0N 99.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown