Texas Summer 2017

[Ntxw]

Yeah this complex largely has been a dud east of I-35W

[Yukon Cornelius]

Our forecast for the last few days with good chances for heavy rain and thunderstorms all week pretty much went *poof* and are gone.

[starsfan65]

Our forecast for the last few days with good chances for heavy rain and thunderstorms all week pretty much went *poof* and are gone.

There are still good chances of rain this week.

[JDawg512]

Starting to see some Balcones Uplift activity developing across Hays, Travis and Williamson counties.

[weatherdude1108]

Starting to see some Balcones Uplift activity developing across Hays, Travis and Williamson counties.

I see a definite outflow boundary coming from that complex to our north. Looks like the outflow is slowing down. Ewx has an update from the 9pm hour:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
922 PM CDT Sun Aug 6 2017

.EVENING UPDATE...
Continuing to evaluate the overnight PoP/Wx/QPF potential for the
northern half of the CWA. Run to run consistency of the
HRRR/HRRRX/TTU-WRF have proven to be poor in handling the overall
evolution of the convection to our north currently. However, analysis
of the mesoscale environment indicates still 1000-2000 J/KG of SBCAPE
just north of the Austin area but instability has been trending down
quickly. Additionally, low level lapse rates are beginning to
decrease with the loss of diurnal heating.

Thus, believe convection located immediately north of the
Burnet/Llano area will continue their downward trend in intensity
over the next hour or two.

However, more intense convection farther north continues to
overachieve compared to mesoscale model solutions and confidence is
increasing in this complex slowly dissipating over the next several
hours but making it far enough south to bring showers and storms into
the northern tier zones, possibly including Austin around 05-06Z.
The biggest concern would be heavy rain potential given VAD wind
profiles indicating weak mid level flow and PWAT values 2"+ according
to RAP mesoscale analysis. However, this should mostly be lifted by
outflow and will lack thermodynamic support, so believe flash flood
potential should be minimal but a quick inch or two of rain could be
possible. Gusty outflow winds of 30-40 mph could also be a secondary
concern.

.

[JDawg512]

It's made it to the northern suburbs. Getting on and off showers and can see the faint flashes across the sky from the lighting which is increasing and getting brighter. This is it! This is not a drill, this is the real deal!!!

[JDawg512]

Checking in and can report heavy rain falling here with occasional lighting. It started about 8 min ago. The radar is really starting to fill in across the metro. This is going to be a very active next few hours.

[weatherdude1108]

Started lightning around 2:30 this morning. Woke me up. Then it's been off and on moderate to heavy rain since then.

We got a really heavy line come through about an hour or so ago.

I have received 2 inches of liquid gold overnight so far as of 6:15am!

[Ntxw]

I am happy for you central Texas folks! Finally got some rain

For DFW this whole event has largely been a bust

[JDawg512]

I've been up all night. Just couldn't sleep so watched the rain and lighting instead. I have not checked how much has fallen here yet but will be checking in an hour or two. Might try to take a little nap.

[TheProfessor]

Well after a bust like that it's time to change back to this avatar.

[TheProfessor]

Pretty nice AFD out of Fort Worth that describes what is likely to happen today for DFW.

No shortage of challenges through the first 24 hours of the
forecast with numerous factors in play. While the most widespread
and heaviest rainfall is winding down, there will still be a
potential for more localized heavy rain and flooding through
Monday evening with more scattered convection possible throughout
the day. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect area-wide, although
many locations should escape without substantial flooding
concerns.

For the next 24 hours, have largely disregarded most model
guidance for a variety of reasons. One can find a model that
supports any forecast they would like, anywhere from completely
dry to another round of widespread heavy rain. Models are
struggling due to a few factors, one being the unusual setup as
compared to climatology. Another issue is the ongoing MCV across
North TX; most models are failing to acknowledge its existence
whatsoever. So rather than focus on things like model
reflectivity fields, we can analyze the few things we know to be
true:

1. Very high moisture content overspreads the entire forecast
area today (near-record PWs of 2.2" to 2.5").

2. There will be subsidence on the backside of the departing MCV
moving toward East TX.

3. There is a lack of substantial large-scale lift available, but
weak low-level convergence will be present in the form of the
stalled front and lingering mesoscale boundaries. There is also a
subtle upstream shortwave causing some weak ascent though the TX
Panhandle region.

With this combination of factors, expect a continued downward
trend in most activity through the morning hours as ongoing
convection shifts southeastward. We should see a few breaks in the
clouds across our northwestern half as convective debris clears
throughout the morning, and temperatures could climb into the
upper 80s or low 90s in this area. This would destabilize the
atmosphere fairly easily via heating given the very moist
profiles. The forecast then comes down to which vertical motion
will win out, the subsidence from the MCV, or the ascent from the
weak low-level convergence and upstream disturbance. I`m inclined
to believe that by mid/late afternoon we should start to see
scattered thunderstorms develop just about anywhere within the
forecast area given the high-quality moisture and broad, unfocused
lift. Flow through the column is weak, and this convection will
likely be less organized and more limited in coverage than
Sunday`s. Storm motions will be fairly slow, and it will not take
much to cause flooding problems in any area that receives
additional heavy rain as soils across a large portion of the CWA
have been primed by yesterday`s rainfall. In addition, if
significant destabilization occurs via diabatic heating this
afternoon, can`t rule out a strong or borderline severe storm
capable of downburst winds. If indications point toward the
subsidence winning out into the afternoon hours (which is also
quite possible), then my PoPs will be too high and the Flash Flood
Watch could be canceled early.

I have made some pretty substantial changes to the forecast on
Tuesday which includes going warmer and much drier over previous
forecasts based on latest data. It looks like we`ll be quite
subsident and some drier air will also be present over most of the
forecast area. Have left some low PoPs and don`t want to get too
carried away with drying out the forecast, but it looks like some
building upper heights and drying through the low levels may keep
most of the forecast area rain-free on Tuesday outside of some
diurnally-driven activity. The highest PoPs will be confined to
Central TX where the better moisture will be in place.

Wednesday and Thursday look warmer and drier, although still
likely below normal on temperatures for this time of year. It will
be quite humid with dewpoints remaining in the low 70s and heat
index values could climb as high as the low 100s through the
middle/end of the week. Some storm chances will continue each day
mostly across our north and east zones which will remain displaced
from the influence of the upper ridge.

The ridge does appear to intensify heading into the weekend with
highs returning to near normal. We may even approach Heat
Advisory criteria in a few spots during the Friday/Saturday time
frame. However, this appears to be short-lived as models suggest
another deepening trough across the eastern US that could drag a
weak front near North TX by Sunday/Monday. Have kept some low PoPs
through this time period with pretty low confidence in this
potential.

-Stalley

[Portastorm]

Anywhere from 1.5" to 3" since midnight here in Travis County. There is rejoicing and dancing in the streets.

And the rain is still falling.

[bubba hotep]

I am happy for you central Texas folks! Finally got some rain

For DFW this whole event has largely been a bust

Massive bust. The high density population areas picked up little rain. Then, given current radar, DFW probably stays mostly dry today with subsidence over the area. However, sun is starting to break through so maybe that can build enough instability to overcome. Overall, pretty disappointing event for much of DFW, esp. given models showing widespread big rain totals for like a week.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I am happy for you central Texas folks! Finally got some rain

For DFW this whole event has largely been a bust

I feel your pain. I had been considering cutting and bailing my coastal fields with the 60-70% chance of rain every day. I assumed it was a sure fire thing that we would be getting measurable rain so I wouldn't have to worry about burning the vegetation from cutting it. Luckily I ran out of time and didn't get it done because all of those 60-70% chances have now turned into 20-30% chances.

[Texas Snowman]

Those big totals happened just across the Red River last night.

Southern Oklahoma had multiple flash flood warnings and up to three inches of rainfall. In fact, 1.97 inches was recorded in only an hour somewhere near Madill (on the north side of Lake Texoma).

Also some big rains occurred here in portions of Grayson County along with flash flood advisories around midnight.

[Texas Snowman]

Also, there were some flash flood advisories last night near Lawton and Ardmore.

And one county over to the east of Lake Texoma, there was an even bigger rainfall with up to eight inches in Choctaw County (along the Red River).

So I think the model idea of very heavy rainfall was somewhat correct even if the location and area coverage was somewhat off.

-----

Flood Warning
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
414 AM CDT MON AUG 7 2017

OKC023-072115-
/O.NEW.KTSA.FA.W.0020.170807T0914Z-170807T2115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Choctaw OK-
414 AM CDT MON AUG 7 2017

The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a

* Flood Warning for...
Choctaw County in southeastern Oklahoma...

* Until 415 PM CDT Monday

* At 411 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated areas of light to moderate
rain across Choctaw county. Although the heavy rain has ended, 6
to 8 inches of rainfall have fallen over the past 24 hours and
low land flooding will likely continue this morning.

* Some locations that may experience flooding include...
Hugo... Boswell...
Fort Towson... Sawyer...
Soper... Kent...
Goodland... Messer...
Hugo Lake State Park... Raymond Gary State Park...
Grant... Ord...
Fallon... Swink...
Frogville... Speer...
Unger... Huskey...
Gay...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3387 9584 3395 9594 3412 9594 3416 9597
3416 9579 3406 9516 3394 9516 3396 9523
3390 9526 3391 9527 3387 9529 3389 9533
3388 9550 3389 9552 3388 9554 3393 9556
3394 9560 3389 9569 3390 9575 3387 9577

$$

[bubba hotep]

:uarrow: Also, there were some flash flood advisories last night near Lawton and Ardmore.

And one county over to the east of Lake Texoma, there was an even bigger rainfall with up to eight inches in Choctaw County (along the Red River).

So I think the model idea of very heavy rainfall was somewhat correct even if the location and area coverage was somewhat off.

-----

Flood Warning
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
414 AM CDT MON AUG 7 2017

OKC023-072115-
/O.NEW.KTSA.FA.W.0020.170807T0914Z-170807T2115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Choctaw OK-
414 AM CDT MON AUG 7 2017

The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a

* Flood Warning for...
Choctaw County in southeastern Oklahoma...

* Until 415 PM CDT Monday

* At 411 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated areas of light to moderate
rain across Choctaw county. Although the heavy rain has ended, 6
to 8 inches of rainfall have fallen over the past 24 hours and
low land flooding will likely continue this morning.

* Some locations that may experience flooding include...
Hugo... Boswell...
Fort Towson... Sawyer...
Soper... Kent...
Goodland... Messer...
Hugo Lake State Park... Raymond Gary State Park...
Grant... Ord...
Fallon... Swink...
Frogville... Speer...
Unger... Huskey...
Gay...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3387 9584 3395 9594 3412 9594 3416 9597
3416 9579 3406 9516 3394 9516 3396 9523
3390 9526 3391 9527 3387 9529 3389 9533
3388 9550 3389 9552 3388 9554 3393 9556
3394 9560 3389 9569 3390 9575 3387 9577

$$

Yes, there were isolated areas of heavy rain. However, and this is the challenge for FWD, the 4 main counties that make up DFW saw almost nothing. So now you have millions of people this morning doing the lol Flash Flood watch lol

[Brent]

man what happened in DFW, maybe its because I'm not there. Be landing around 6pm tonight...

All those model runs with prolific totals pfft

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Also, there were some flash flood advisories last night near Lawton and Ardmore.

And one county over to the east of Lake Texoma, there was an even bigger rainfall with up to eight inches in Choctaw County (along the Red River).

So I think the model idea of very heavy rainfall was somewhat correct even if the location and area coverage was somewhat off.

-----

Flood Warning
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
414 AM CDT MON AUG 7 2017

OKC023-072115-
/O.NEW.KTSA.FA.W.0020.170807T0914Z-170807T2115Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Choctaw OK-
414 AM CDT MON AUG 7 2017

The National Weather Service in Tulsa has issued a

* Flood Warning for...
Choctaw County in southeastern Oklahoma...

* Until 415 PM CDT Monday

* At 411 AM CDT, Doppler radar indicated areas of light to moderate
rain across Choctaw county. Although the heavy rain has ended, 6
to 8 inches of rainfall have fallen over the past 24 hours and
low land flooding will likely continue this morning.

* Some locations that may experience flooding include...
Hugo... Boswell...
Fort Towson... Sawyer...
Soper... Kent...
Goodland... Messer...
Hugo Lake State Park... Raymond Gary State Park...
Grant... Ord...
Fallon... Swink...
Frogville... Speer...
Unger... Huskey...
Gay...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&

LAT...LON 3387 9584 3395 9594 3412 9594 3416 9597
3416 9579 3406 9516 3394 9516 3396 9523
3390 9526 3391 9527 3387 9529 3389 9533
3388 9550 3389 9552 3388 9554 3393 9556
3394 9560 3389 9569 3390 9575 3387 9577

$$

Yes, there were isolated areas of heavy rain. However, and this is the challenge for FWD, the 4 main counties that make up DFW saw almost nothing. So now you have millions of people this morning doing the lol Flash Flood watch lol

Thats what irks me and why I said flood watches were warranted but unsure. August rains is almost always localized and you have to get lucky because lift is not great and its random with boundaries etc. The early morning showers yesterday to the N/NE probably did not help. But yeah the difference is busting for a few counties with a few thousand people vs 4 counties with 4 million, turns heads