ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[tatertawt24]

wow that organised rather quicker than i expected.

That area of the Caribbean is like magic.

[Hammy]

Didn't the models have this not developing until tomorrow afternoon a few days back? I think this might exceed the forecast intensity, possibly by a lot.

[tatertawt24]

Didn't the models have this not developing until tomorrow afternoon a few days back? I think this might exceed the forecast intensity, possibly by a lot.

It seems like Earl 2.0 to me.

[Nimbus]

Didn't the models have this not developing until tomorrow afternoon a few days back? I think this might exceed the forecast intensity, possibly by a lot.

It was the proximity to a buoy that gave us the TS force wind reading.

[weathaguyry]

Didn't the models have this not developing until tomorrow afternoon a few days back? I think this might exceed the forecast intensity, possibly by a lot.

It seems like Earl 2.0 to me.

Only it is farther north, so it will have more time over water, and we all know what could have happened with Earl if it had another 12 hours over water...

[RL3AO]

The big question is how much can the core organize before landfall in the Yucatan? That'll be the difference between a strong TS and potentially something much stronger.

[Alyono]

Now that this has become a TS, the GFS has trended dramatically weaker. Shaking my head

How can a model with the documented problems (not just these, but some 120 degree temps in California posted on Ryan Maue's twitter) actually be implemented?

[MississippiWx]

Franklin has enough time and good enough conditions to strengthen into a hurricane before Yucatán landfall. It has wasted no time so far...

[Alyono]

GFS does not even form a closed circulation now until it moves over the Yucatan.

Talk about an utterly useless run. Output shall be ignored entirely

[Alyono]

The big question is how much can the core organize before landfall in the Yucatan? That'll be the difference between a strong TS and potentially something much stronger.

the systems that have formed a solid core usually have that core disrupted significantly as it crosses the Yucatan. Think Dean from 2010. As a result, they only intensify slightly in the Gulf.

However, systems like Alex and Karl which did not have solid cores, as well as Gert from 1993 and Diana did not get a chance to form that core. They were disrupted significantly less and intensified very quickly in the Gulf

[Hammy]

GFS does not even form a closed circulation now until it moves over the Yucatan.

Talk about an utterly useless run. Output shall be ignored entirely

Looks like it initialized too far south as well.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

lots of energy to tap into looks a sprawling positive TC heat potential anomaly.

[Siker]

Euro says that by this time tomorrow we have a TD, borderline TS.

Well this was pretty much nailed. Huge kudos to the Euro so far.

[Kingarabian]

Euro says that by this time tomorrow we have a TD, borderline TS.

Well this was pretty much nailed. Huge kudos to the Euro so far.

Even more impressive, EPS snuff it out a week before there was an invest.

[PTrackerLA]

The big question is how much can the core organize before landfall in the Yucatan? That'll be the difference between a strong TS and potentially something much stronger.

the systems that have formed a solid core usually have that core disrupted significantly as it crosses the Yucatan. Think Dean from 2010. As a result, they only intensify slightly in the Gulf.

However, systems like Alex and Karl which did not have solid cores, as well as Gert from 1993 and Diana did not get a chance to form that core. They were disrupted significantly less and intensified very quickly in the Gulf

That's exactly what I expect to happen in this situation. I'd put money on seeing a hurricane in the BOC, they seem to always over-perform. We shall see.

[Alyono]

TROPICAL STORM 07L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 82.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072017

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.08.2017 0 16.2N 82.5W 1008 31
1200UTC 07.08.2017 12 17.0N 84.7W 1006 32
0000UTC 08.08.2017 24 18.0N 86.4W 1002 36
1200UTC 08.08.2017 36 19.0N 88.4W 1000 35
0000UTC 09.08.2017 48 19.7N 91.1W 997 46
1200UTC 09.08.2017 60 20.0N 93.8W 993 41
0000UTC 10.08.2017 72 20.2N 96.7W 991 48
1200UTC 10.08.2017 84 CEASED TRACKING

[Craters]

wow that organised rather quicker than i expected.

That area of the Caribbean is like magic.

"Like magic" is right! This might have something to do with it, too:



Tropical-cyclone heat potential.

[Aric Dunn]

Not surprised about the upgrade. The NHC loves to follow procedure. Though it could have easily been found a TD/storm yesterday had recon flown. Happens all the time..

[Aric Dunn]

18z guidence.was.initialized quite a bit to far south and east of the actual center. Expect a shift north over the next couple runs

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

wow that organised rather quicker than i expected.

That area of the Caribbean is like magic.

"Like magic" is right! This might have something to do with it, too:

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 7217at.jpg

Tropical-cyclone heat potential.

Yeah noticed that earlier post time stamps.
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