ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

AMSU has a 1.5C Warm Core with a good lapse-rate directly below it.
Red arrows indicate air-parcel trajectory.
Of course there will be a Coriolis spin to it as they climb vertically.
Nice structure.

[BZSTORM]

000
NOUS42 KNHC 051445
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1045 AM EDT SAT 05 AUGUST 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 06/1100Z TO 07/1100Z AUGUST 2017
TCPOD NUMBER.....17-066

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN SEA)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 06/1800Z A. 07/1130Z, 1730Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST B. AFXXX 0207A CYCLONE
C. 06/1400Z C. 07/0800Z
D. 16.0N 81.0W D. 17.0N 85.0W
E. 06/1730Z TO 06/2130Z E. 07/1100Z TO 07/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY
FIXES IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

$$
WJM

[Aric Dunn]

I have the center up at 17.6N / 84.9W as of 8am CDT. That's about 110 miles north of Honduras and almost at the northern latitude of Belize. No Belize landfall for Franklin. Would help to have recon in there to confirm, but I think it's in the center of the convection.

Agreed. I have it at 17.69° N 84.45° W. that new tower looks like its on the east side of the center. moving north..


actually take that back couple new images have come in that tower is moving nearly due west. the center is just south of that.

[Alyono]

I have the center up at 17.6N / 84.9W as of 8am CDT. That's about 110 miles north of Honduras and almost at the northern latitude of Belize. No Belize landfall for Franklin. Would help to have recon in there to confirm, but I think it's in the center of the convection.

I'm seeing it down by 16.8 on the morning visible. That's where the low level westerlies are

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 07, 2017080712, , BEST, 0, 174N, 846W, 45, 1004, TS

[Aric Dunn]

I have the center up at 17.6N / 84.9W as of 8am CDT. That's about 110 miles north of Honduras and almost at the northern latitude of Belize. No Belize landfall for Franklin. Would help to have recon in there to confirm, but I think it's in the center of the convection.

I'm seeing it down by 16.8 on the morning visible. That's where the low level westerlies are

17.6N 84.4W ish need some new towers to fire to get a better estimate.

[drezee]

I hope there is a true appreciation for what could happen for Mexico. They could have two hurricane landfall this week. Based in the outflow and inner core changes, I think Franklin is about 12 hours from RI. Disclaimer ...
It need to get onshore fast. Once the RI starts it will ramp to the coast and a few miles inland...feedback will be a beast

[gatorcane]

saved IR loop - wow that is some deep and impressive convection:

[tropicwatch]

CIMSS Env Steering Product
700-850hPa layer
for TC MSLP range >1000hPa
Valid:20170807/1200UTC

[SouthDadeFish]

Another SSMIS pass is in. Convective banding is quite impressive.

[Aric Dunn]

last few images.. a series of towers have begun to develop and expand on the NE, N , NW quads the center. Expect that to grow rapidly and begin building in all quads.

17.6n 84.5W ... about to explode

[drezee]

Let me further explain. My guess is recon will find 999 pressure at 18z or so. Probably deepening at 1 mb per hour until 8pm then goes into RI or about 2 mb per hour for the next 8 hours before landfall. So worse case you have: 999mb - 6mb - 16mb ~ 977 mb worst case...in a case like this could be strong Cat 1

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/894546758839132160

[SouthDadeFish]

Pretty impressive to see the evolution of the TC in the last 24 hours:

Pre-Franklin 24 h ago:



Franklin now:

[GCANE]

last few images.. a series of towers have begun to develop and expand on the NE, N , NW quads the center. Expect that to grow rapidly and begin building in all quads.

17.6n 84.5W ... about to explode

That one tower almost directly north of the CoC and shooting west is pretty impressive.

[Aric Dunn]

At least they put up hurricane watches because recon is cutting it close in terms of landfall timing and intensity..

[Alyono]

does look to be about half a degree north of where I had it based upon the SSM/I

[Alyono]

if this comes in north of Chetumal, it won't be a big deal for the Yucatan as there is not much population north of Chetumal. Remember, Dean did not do that much damage because it hit very few people

[BobHarlem]

if this comes in north of Chetumal, it won't be a big deal for the Yucatan as there is not much population north of Chetumal. Remember, Dean did not do that much damage because it hit very few people

There's not much between there and Cozumel, but a few spots, Mahahual (Costa Maya Cruise Port), is probably the most notable, which could be really close to where Franklin makes landfall.

[gatorcane]

coming into view on NEXSTAT SAT loop:

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/nexsat-bin/ ... PE=Instant