ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[ronjon]

Tropical Storm Franklin (Weather Underground)


Last Updated: 8/7/2017, 11:00:00 AM (Eastern Daylight Time)

Location:
17.7N 85.1W Movement:
WNW at 13 mph Wind:
60 mph Pressure:
999 mb

[GCANE]

Winds at the Cozumel Buoy picking up quickly.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/894568097264304128

[BobHarlem]

Some webcams in the general likely landfall vicinity and radar

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animationlist.php?year=all&tag=Franklin+(2017)

[GCANE]

Classic eyewall development.
Very impressive for this time of day.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071443
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 05 20170807
143300 2915N 08854W 4213 07259 0443 -141 //// 276005 006 /// /// 05
143330 2913N 08854W 4166 07341 0446 -148 //// 251003 005 /// /// 05
143400 2911N 08853W 4116 07435 0453 -155 //// 211005 006 /// /// 05
143430 2909N 08853W 4097 07470 0456 -160 //// 220004 006 /// /// 05
143500 2906N 08852W 4098 07468 0456 -162 //// 249004 005 /// /// 05
143530 2904N 08852W 4094 07471 0454 -156 //// 242006 007 /// /// 05
143600 2902N 08851W 4094 07471 0453 -159 -290 241006 007 /// /// 03
143630 2900N 08851W 4094 07470 0452 -155 -416 226004 005 /// /// 03
143700 2857N 08850W 4095 07466 0451 -156 -477 213004 005 /// /// 03
143730 2855N 08850W 4095 07468 0450 -160 -506 201005 005 /// /// 03
143800 2852N 08849W 4095 07466 0450 -158 -522 200004 005 /// /// 03
143830 2850N 08849W 4095 07464 0449 -154 -531 203005 006 /// /// 03
143900 2847N 08848W 4095 07464 0447 -153 -538 182005 006 /// /// 03
143930 2845N 08847W 4099 07457 0447 -155 -543 180005 006 /// /// 03
144000 2843N 08847W 4093 07470 0447 -157 -547 176005 005 /// /// 03
144030 2840N 08846W 4101 07454 0446 -156 -550 177006 006 /// /// 03
144100 2838N 08846W 4093 07469 0447 -154 -553 174007 007 /// /// 03
144130 2835N 08845W 4095 07461 0445 -152 -555 169007 008 /// /// 03
144200 2833N 08845W 4101 07454 0446 -152 -557 180005 006 /// /// 03
144230 2831N 08844W 4093 07467 0446 -155 -559 178005 006 /// /// 03
$$
;

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

No big surprise. Should have been 90% 3 days ago. Meets the PTC criteria now. NHC should initiate advisories shortly.

So just to be clear..no to Texas at this time....sir?

I might be wrong, but most Texas storms (or at least the more memorable ones) organize way east and north of where Franklin was born. The usually cause havoc with the Islands and race across Jamaica, the Caymans, the tip of Cuba and brush the northern tip of the Yuctan. Either they follow that track or they are born in the BOC. The further south they are born, the more the get stirred westerly into the Yuctan and then it's pretty much a straight shot into the eastern coast of Mexico where the target landfall is right now for Frankie.

[OuterBanker]

Some webcams in the general likely landfall vicinity and radar

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animationlist.php?year=all&tag=Franklin+(2017)

Thanks Bob. Wonderful link. Excellent time lapse and nice real time radar link.

[drezee]

Let me further explain. My guess is recon will find 999 pressure at 18z or so. Probably deepening at 1 mb per hour until 8pm then goes into RI or about 2 mb per hour for the next 8 hours before landfall. So worse case you have: 999mb - 6mb - 16mb ~ 977 mb worst case...in a case like this could be strong Cat 1

Well, NHC already says 999mb...so 22mb less than recon

[MGC]

Western Caribbean working its magic this morning on Franklin. Should be a hurricane at landfall on the Yucatan.....MGC

[HurricaneBelle]

I might be wrong, but most Texas storms (or at least the more memorable ones) organize way east and north of where Franklin was born. The usually cause havoc with the Islands and race across Jamaica, the Caymans, the tip of Cuba and brush the northern tip of the Yuctan. Either they follow that track or they are born in the BOC. The further south they are born, the more the get stirred westerly into the Yuctan and then it's pretty much a straight shot into the eastern coast of Mexico where the target landfall is right now for Frankie.

To find out what the NHC thinks about any Texas impacts, it's helpful to consult the Wind Speed Probability Forecast that's issued with each advisory and which for some reason nobody ever posts here even though they're extremely useful. As you can see NHC is assigning a whopping 3-4% probability of LOW END (34-knot) tropical storm-force winds at locations in extreme South Texas.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1433.shtml?

Code: Select all

  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM
  TIME       12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO 
             00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION       KT                                                   

MCALLEN TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

HARLINGEN TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

BROWNSVILLE TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

LA PESCA MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  14(15)   X(15)   X(15)

TAMPICO MX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)  35(37)   X(37)   X(37)
TAMPICO MX     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
TAMPICO MX     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

TUXPAN MX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  49(53)   X(53)   X(53)
TUXPAN MX      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)   X(19)   X(19)
TUXPAN MX      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

VERACRUZ MX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  23(28)   X(28)   X(28)
VERACRUZ MX    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
VERACRUZ MX    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)

FRONTERA MX    34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)  11(13)   2(15)   X(15)   X(15)

MERIDA MX      34  4   9(13)  19(32)   3(35)   1(36)   X(36)   X(36)
MERIDA MX      50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

COZUMEL MX     34 42   8(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)   X(50)

BELIZE CITY    34  6   6(12)   X(12)   1(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)

GUANAJA        34 20   1(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)   X(21)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34  9   2(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)

ISLE OF PINES  34  4   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)


[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071453
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 06 20170807
144300 2828N 08843W 4099 07454 0445 -155 -560 200007 008 /// /// 03
144330 2826N 08843W 4097 07462 0446 -155 -561 215009 009 /// /// 03
144400 2823N 08842W 4093 07467 0445 -156 -562 213007 008 /// /// 03
144430 2821N 08842W 4099 07455 0445 -158 -563 216007 007 /// /// 03
144500 2819N 08841W 4101 07453 0445 -160 -564 209009 010 /// /// 03
144530 2816N 08841W 4095 07461 0444 -160 -565 200011 011 /// /// 03
144600 2814N 08840W 4098 07457 0445 -160 -566 202012 012 /// /// 03
144630 2812N 08839W 4093 07467 0446 -160 -567 206012 012 /// /// 03
144700 2809N 08838W 4099 07454 0444 -160 -567 206011 011 /// /// 03
144730 2807N 08837W 4094 07466 0447 -160 -568 211011 011 /// /// 03
144800 2805N 08836W 4091 07468 0446 -160 -569 220009 010 /// /// 03
144830 2802N 08835W 4101 07453 0446 -157 -569 233008 009 /// /// 03
144900 2800N 08835W 4094 07467 0447 -157 -570 232008 009 /// /// 03
144930 2758N 08834W 4093 07469 0447 -155 -570 223007 008 /// /// 03
145000 2755N 08833W 4095 07465 0447 -155 -570 212007 007 /// /// 03
145030 2753N 08832W 4097 07463 0448 -156 -569 200008 008 /// /// 03
145100 2750N 08831W 4093 07466 0447 -155 -569 185008 009 /// /// 03
145130 2748N 08830W 4086 07480 0448 -150 -569 170006 007 /// /// 03
145200 2746N 08829W 4087 07478 0448 -152 -569 186005 006 /// /// 03
145230 2743N 08828W 4098 07457 0446 -157 -569 203007 008 /// /// 03
$$
;

[drezee]

That eye cleared quick...if RI starts at 18z instead...then maybe 30 mb after recon...yuck

[Aric Dunn]

looks like we are seeing the first hints of a warming core and slight clearing out of the center. COnvection expanding in all quads

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071503
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 07 20170807
145300 2741N 08827W 4094 07466 0448 -160 -569 189007 008 /// /// 03
145330 2739N 08826W 4098 07460 0447 -156 -569 179006 007 /// /// 03
145400 2736N 08825W 4097 07462 0448 -151 -569 179003 005 /// /// 03
145430 2734N 08824W 4092 07470 0447 -154 -569 172004 005 /// /// 03
145500 2731N 08823W 4094 07466 0447 -158 -569 173007 007 /// /// 03
145530 2729N 08822W 4097 07462 0447 -158 -569 174008 008 /// /// 03
145600 2727N 08821W 4095 07463 0447 -159 -569 177008 009 /// /// 03
145630 2724N 08821W 4095 07464 0446 -160 -569 176010 011 /// /// 03
145700 2722N 08820W 4098 07458 0445 -155 -570 186008 010 /// /// 03
145730 2720N 08819W 4097 07458 0445 -153 -571 202007 007 /// /// 03
145800 2717N 08818W 4096 07461 0445 -150 -571 207008 008 /// /// 03
145830 2715N 08817W 4095 07462 0445 -150 -572 205009 009 /// /// 03
145900 2712N 08816W 4097 07457 0443 -145 -572 199008 009 /// /// 03
145930 2710N 08815W 4097 07458 0444 -144 -572 194008 009 /// /// 03
150000 2708N 08814W 4097 07459 0443 -147 -571 204009 010 /// /// 03
150030 2705N 08813W 4099 07459 0449 -142 -571 191008 009 /// /// 03
150100 2703N 08812W 4098 07460 0450 -144 -570 189009 010 /// /// 03
150130 2701N 08811W 4099 07459 0449 -142 -569 191008 010 /// /// 03
150200 2658N 08810W 4094 07457 0444 -145 -569 190010 010 /// /// 03
150230 2656N 08809W 4099 07460 0450 -145 -568 187010 011 /// /// 03
$$
;

[latitude_20]

It's started here in Tulum, Mexico. Just went from slightly overcast to really dark, now pouring rain. Winds just kicked up.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071513
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 08 20170807
150300 2654N 08808W 4097 07459 0445 -146 -567 184011 011 /// /// 03
150330 2651N 08808W 4094 07464 0445 -150 -566 183011 011 /// /// 03
150400 2649N 08807W 4099 07455 0446 -147 -566 188010 010 /// /// 03
150430 2647N 08806W 4099 07457 0447 -145 -566 182009 010 /// /// 03
150500 2644N 08805W 4093 07469 0447 -145 -566 177009 010 /// /// 03
150530 2642N 08804W 4097 07463 0447 -149 -565 176009 010 /// /// 03
150600 2640N 08803W 4091 07470 0447 -150 -565 170009 010 /// /// 03
150630 2637N 08802W 4099 07457 0447 -150 -565 168009 010 /// /// 03
150700 2635N 08801W 4094 07469 0448 -150 -565 165010 010 /// /// 03
150730 2633N 08800W 4095 07464 0447 -150 -565 161010 011 /// /// 03
150800 2630N 08759W 4098 07461 0447 -150 -565 163011 011 /// /// 03
150830 2628N 08758W 4091 07470 0447 -149 -565 166011 011 /// /// 03
150900 2626N 08757W 4098 07459 0446 -150 -566 168010 011 /// /// 03
150930 2623N 08756W 4095 07463 0447 -150 -566 162009 010 /// /// 03
151000 2621N 08756W 4095 07464 0447 -152 -566 157008 009 /// /// 03
151030 2619N 08755W 4097 07460 0446 -153 -566 165009 011 /// /// 03
151100 2616N 08754W 4098 07460 0446 -152 -566 169010 011 /// /// 03
151130 2614N 08753W 4094 07466 0446 -148 -566 166010 011 /// /// 03
151200 2612N 08752W 4098 07458 0444 -149 -566 165009 009 /// /// 03
151230 2609N 08751W 4095 07461 0445 -148 -567 162009 009 /// /// 03
$$
;

[GCANE]

Large tower firing on the NW side of the wall.
Looks like latent heating may shift the core north.

[cycloneye]

Upcomming missions in the 8/7/17 TCPOD.

Code: Select all

REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT MON 07 AUGUST 2017
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 08/1100Z TO 09/1100Z AUGUST 2017
         TCPOD NUMBER.....17-068

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. TROPICAL STORM FRANKLIN
       FLIGHT ONE -- NOAA 42          FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 73
       A. 09/0000Z                    A. 08/2330Z, 09/0530Z
       B. NOAA2 0207A FRANKLIN        B. AFXXX 0307A FRANKLIN
       C. 08/2000Z                    C. 08/2100Z
       D. 20.1N 91.1W                 D. 20.1N 91.1W
       E. 08/2230Z TO 9/0130Z         E. 08/2300Z TO 09/0530Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT            F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE -- NOAA 42        FLIGHT FOUR -- TEAL 71
       A. 09/1200Z                    A. 09/1130Z, 1730Z
       B. NOAA2 0407A FRANKLIN        B. AFXXX 0507A FRANKLIN
       C. 09/0800Z                    C. 09/0900Z
       D. 20.5N 93.3W                 D. 20.5N 93.3W
       E. 09/1100Z TO 09/1400Z        E. 09/1100Z TO 09/1730Z
       F. SFC TO 15,000 FT            F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
       A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES WHILE FRANKLIN REMAINS A THREAT.
       B. POSSIBLE NOAA42 MISSION AT 09/2000Z.

[GCANE]

The tower is really hot.
Ciirus clearing out rapidly to its NE.