ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#601 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 07, 2017 11:55 am

Recon finding are going to be very interesting with this one, it really looks to be ramping up quickly now.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#602 Postby latitude_20 » Mon Aug 07, 2017 11:58 am

Words can't describe how hot it's been here in the last two weeks. Franklin is going to find plenty of energy as he closes in. Meanwhile, enjoying the dense overcast. Nice breeze moving through the house and the dogs be chillin', lol. Interesting afternoon and evening ahead. I'll be heading to the beach later and hope to get some decent photos to post here.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#603 Postby tolakram » Mon Aug 07, 2017 11:59 am

Looking at a zoomed out visible, observe the near perfect outflow in a clockwise direction around Franklin, plus the atmospheric wave (not sure what it is) moving east on the right side of the convection. Pretty darn neat.

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=conus&x=6372&y=6131&z=2&im=30&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=1&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon

#604 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 07, 2017 12:05 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 071703
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 19 20170807
165300 1915N 08428W 8429 01568 0114 +158 -408 132029 030 /// /// 03
165330 1913N 08430W 8430 01568 0117 +152 -407 131032 033 038 002 00
165400 1912N 08431W 8424 01574 0117 +154 -406 128035 036 038 004 00
165430 1911N 08432W 8429 01566 0117 +151 -406 129036 038 038 004 00
165500 1910N 08433W 8432 01564 0112 +159 -406 130033 035 039 005 00
165530 1909N 08434W 8424 01571 0107 +166 -407 129034 034 039 005 00
165600 1907N 08435W 8431 01563 0112 +157 -407 125035 035 039 005 00
165630 1906N 08436W 8428 01569 0111 +163 -408 123035 035 040 005 00
165700 1905N 08438W 8429 01564 0107 +165 -407 126037 037 039 003 00
165730 1904N 08439W 8431 01560 0105 +163 -407 125037 037 040 002 00
165800 1902N 08440W 8429 01564 0106 +161 -407 126037 038 040 004 00
165830 1901N 08441W 8428 01563 0106 +160 -406 127039 040 039 006 00
165900 1900N 08442W 8434 01558 0109 +156 -406 127043 044 041 006 00
165930 1859N 08443W 8426 01563 0108 +153 -405 129042 044 040 009 03
170000 1857N 08444W 8432 01558 0107 +153 -405 128042 043 041 008 00
170030 1856N 08445W 8434 01549 0107 +149 -405 127042 043 041 011 03
170100 1855N 08446W 8426 01558 0110 +145 -406 133040 043 047 011 00
170130 1853N 08447W 8428 01555 0113 +137 -406 131039 040 048 013 00
170200 1852N 08448W 8426 01557 0112 +140 -409 125031 037 046 024 00
170230 1851N 08448W 8425 01557 0113 +136 -411 110035 036 045 022 00
$$
;

48 kt SFMR so far.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#605 Postby BZSTORM » Mon Aug 07, 2017 12:05 pm

OuterBanker wrote:
BobHarlem wrote:Some webcams in the general likely landfall vicinity and radar

http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animationlist.php?year=all&tag=Franklin+(2017)


Thanks Bob. Wonderful link. Excellent time lapse and nice real time radar link.


Be aware the Belize radar is not showing every 15 mins anymore they had some technical issues and so we now get only 3 images per hour 2 x 15 mins and 1 x 30 mins. Also the radar has crashed a few times in last couple months. Obv we are all hoping that it holds up though Franklins landfall. Also new feature on the Belize Met website home page is weather stations at all the airstrips around the country, this live streaming data was made public with the launch of the new website a few months ago. http://www.hydromet.gov.bz/ You need to zoom in on the gray dots to get icon with point finger to open the data.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#606 Postby latitude_20 » Mon Aug 07, 2017 12:08 pm

Wind just kicked up to about 30 mph, dark and pouring rain again.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#607 Postby Kazmit » Mon Aug 07, 2017 12:11 pm

latitude_20 wrote:Wind just kicked up to about 30 mph, dark and pouring rain again.


Stay safe. Franklin will be right over you tonight, most likely as a hurricane.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon

#608 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 07, 2017 12:14 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 071713
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 20 20170807
170300 1849N 08449W 8433 01552 0110 +141 -413 121032 035 045 018 00
170330 1848N 08450W 8438 01547 0100 +159 -415 126032 033 041 007 00
170400 1846N 08450W 8427 01557 0098 +160 -417 125029 032 040 003 00
170430 1845N 08451W 8430 01553 0108 +144 -418 126030 032 039 004 00
170500 1843N 08452W 8433 01552 0102 +153 -419 130030 032 039 001 00
170530 1842N 08452W 8430 01553 0095 +163 -418 129029 029 039 000 00
170600 1840N 08453W 8425 01557 0095 +161 -417 130029 030 038 000 00
170630 1839N 08454W 8426 01552 0094 +160 -415 128031 031 038 000 00
170700 1838N 08454W 8434 01547 0092 +164 -413 126032 033 038 000 00
170730 1836N 08455W 8422 01555 0091 +161 -410 125032 033 038 000 00
170800 1835N 08456W 8430 01548 0091 +161 -407 128034 035 038 000 00
170830 1833N 08457W 8428 01548 0090 +161 -405 129038 040 038 001 00
170900 1832N 08457W 8424 01553 0088 +162 -403 126038 039 038 002 00
170930 1830N 08458W 8426 01548 0086 +160 -401 125036 037 040 000 00
171000 1829N 08459W 8433 01541 0085 +162 -399 123036 037 039 001 00
171030 1828N 08459W 8433 01540 0090 +150 -398 123038 038 038 001 00
171100 1826N 08500W 8434 01537 0091 +148 -397 124038 041 040 003 00
171130 1825N 08501W 8423 01546 0080 +160 -396 124041 043 039 002 00
171200 1823N 08501W 8431 01537 0077 +162 -397 120042 043 039 001 00
171230 1822N 08502W 8426 01538 0071 +166 -397 122042 042 041 000 00
$$
;
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon

#609 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 07, 2017 12:24 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 071723
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 21 20170807
171300 1820N 08503W 8434 01527 0069 +164 -397 119044 044 040 000 00
171330 1819N 08503W 8434 01524 0068 +159 -397 122045 046 041 001 00
171400 1818N 08504W 8424 01529 0065 +157 -396 123043 044 044 000 00
171430 1816N 08505W 8432 01519 0062 +157 -396 121041 043 041 002 00
171500 1815N 08506W 8432 01519 0061 +157 -395 118041 043 042 001 00
171530 1813N 08506W 8434 01512 0052 +162 -394 118037 039 042 000 00
171600 1812N 08507W 8433 01510 0050 +161 -394 112034 037 042 001 00
171630 1811N 08508W 8434 01506 0045 +163 -394 114037 038 042 001 00
171700 1809N 08509W 8426 01508 0037 +167 -393 111038 039 043 000 00
171730 1808N 08509W 8426 01502 0025 +176 -393 105035 039 044 000 00
171800 1806N 08510W 8432 01493 0023 +174 -391 106032 033 041 001 00
171830 1804N 08511W 8430 01490 0016 +173 -390 103030 031 038 000 03
171900 1803N 08511W 8429 01486 0011 +172 -389 104026 030 036 000 00
171930 1801N 08512W 8428 01480 0002 +175 -387 100019 025 034 000 00
172000 1800N 08512W 8430 01475 9997 +180 -386 072005 015 028 001 00
172030 1758N 08512W 8429 01478 9999 +183 -384 277008 012 029 001 00
172100 1756N 08512W 8426 01487 0006 +179 -383 267016 017 031 000 00
172130 1755N 08512W 8434 01486 0018 +171 -381 255017 018 032 002 03
172200 1754N 08513W 8420 01503 0023 +168 -378 266019 020 033 002 00
172230 1753N 08514W 8429 01498 0027 +169 -377 293020 021 034 000 00
$$
;

Pressure 1000mb although it likely missed the center - good agreement with 10 am advisory though.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#610 Postby drezee » Mon Aug 07, 2017 12:26 pm

drezee 8:26am EST wrote:Let me further explain. My guess is recon will find 999 pressure at 18z or so. Probably deepening at 1 mb per hour until 8pm then goes into RI or about 2 mb per hour for the next 8 hours before landfall. So worse case you have: 999mb - 6mb - 16mb ~ 977 mb worst case...in a case like this could be strong Cat 1


And recon has 999mb as I thought
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#611 Postby stormreader » Mon Aug 07, 2017 12:29 pm

Very nice banding to complement the "eye feature". Normally, you would think a storm with this appearance would at least be a 70 mph tropical storm (minimum). Just an amateur's guess.
[imghttp://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/07L/imagery/vis-animated.gif][/img]
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#612 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Aug 07, 2017 12:30 pm

Any 2PM Advisory predictions? My prediction they wait until the very last minute to send it for more recon data.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Models

#613 Postby stormreader » Mon Aug 07, 2017 12:32 pm

Alyono wrote:GFS does not even form a closed circulation now until it moves over the Yucatan.

Talk about an utterly useless run. Output shall be ignored entirely

What else can you do? I remember for Cindy....very clear the storm was headed for the western GOM. Euro had it several days out. At that time, GFS had Cindy moving toward Fl panhandle and doing a recurve (in June). Other examples. At this point, I don't even think we have a model war. New and improved GFS...its ridiculous.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Models

#614 Postby stormreader » Mon Aug 07, 2017 12:34 pm

Alyono wrote:EC down to 998-997mb at Yucatan landfall

Judging from the banding and eye feature, I think that's going to be very conservative.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon

#615 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 07, 2017 12:34 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 071733
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 22 20170807
172300 1752N 08516W 8430 01498 0036 +160 -377 300023 025 034 001 00
172330 1751N 08517W 8438 01497 0041 +161 -376 304022 024 038 002 00
172400 1750N 08518W 8411 01527 0056 +144 -377 296028 033 043 020 00
172430 1749N 08519W 8427 01509 0058 +139 -379 296033 034 050 026 00
172500 1748N 08520W 8456 01488 0071 +134 -383 291029 035 052 024 00
172530 1748N 08520W 8456 01488 0074 +130 -388 278027 028 045 022 00
172600 1746N 08523W 8430 01529 0083 +135 -394 284026 027 042 018 00
172630 1745N 08524W 8429 01532 0082 +142 -399 280025 027 042 011 00
172700 1744N 08525W 8436 01529 0086 +140 -404 274024 024 040 009 00
172730 1743N 08526W 8427 01540 0093 +136 -409 275023 024 039 009 00
172800 1742N 08527W 8425 01542 0094 +138 -413 277022 022 040 007 00
172830 1741N 08528W 8430 01540 0085 +156 -415 281023 024 038 004 00
172900 1740N 08529W 8435 01538 0086 +155 -417 285025 025 037 003 00
172930 1739N 08531W 8426 01548 0090 +154 -417 290022 025 035 002 00
173000 1738N 08532W 8432 01543 0089 +159 -416 292022 023 034 002 00
173030 1736N 08533W 8429 01547 0091 +159 -415 296021 022 034 002 00
173100 1735N 08534W 8436 01543 0094 +156 -413 297022 023 035 003 00
173130 1734N 08535W 8426 01553 0097 +153 -411 300022 023 035 003 00
173200 1733N 08537W 8433 01547 0100 +150 -409 286022 023 035 004 00
173230 1732N 08538W 8427 01554 0097 +156 -407 281020 022 036 005 00
$$
;

52 kt SFMR.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#616 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Aug 07, 2017 12:38 pm

BobHarlem wrote:Any 2PM Advisory predictions? My prediction they wait until the very last minute to send it for more recon data.



Probably 50 knots based on the SMRF.
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#617 Postby latitude_20 » Mon Aug 07, 2017 12:39 pm

Kazmit wrote:
latitude_20 wrote:Wind just kicked up to about 30 mph, dark and pouring rain again.


Stay safe. Franklin will be right over you tonight, most likely as a hurricane.


Thanks, will do. Prepped up and ready!
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#618 Postby drezee » Mon Aug 07, 2017 12:42 pm

BobHarlem wrote:Any 2PM Advisory predictions? My prediction they wait until the very last minute to send it for more recon data.

I'd say no change
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Recon

#619 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 07, 2017 12:43 pm

000
URNT15 KNHC 071743
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 23 20170807
173300 1732N 08538W 8427 01554 0098 +156 -407 279020 022 035 005 00
173330 1730N 08540W 8427 01557 0101 +154 -407 279021 022 034 006 00
173400 1729N 08541W 8434 01552 0101 +156 -407 275022 023 035 005 00
173430 1728N 08542W 8429 01558 0102 +159 -407 268020 022 034 006 00
173500 1727N 08543W 8429 01558 0105 +155 -407 272020 021 034 006 00
173530 1726N 08545W 8430 01557 0107 +150 -407 268019 020 035 009 00
173600 1725N 08546W 8426 01561 0108 +151 -407 264018 019 037 010 00
173630 1724N 08547W 8426 01565 0113 +145 -408 275016 020 037 010 00
173700 1722N 08548W 8425 01563 0109 +150 -408 272015 016 037 004 00
173730 1721N 08549W 8433 01557 0105 +159 -409 278015 015 036 003 00
173800 1720N 08550W 8427 01561 0104 +160 -409 278014 015 035 001 00
173830 1719N 08552W 8432 01558 0104 +160 -410 281015 015 034 001 00
173900 1718N 08553W 8429 01561 0103 +164 -409 277014 015 034 002 00
173930 1717N 08554W 8425 01564 0106 +165 -409 276014 015 033 002 00
174000 1716N 08555W 8428 01574 0116 +164 -407 271012 014 033 001 00
174030 1715N 08556W 8433 01574 0122 +163 -406 268011 011 035 000 00
174100 1714N 08557W 8425 01583 0126 +160 -405 269011 011 034 001 00
174130 1713N 08559W 8432 01577 0124 +165 -403 271011 011 033 001 00
174200 1711N 08600W 8434 01576 0124 +165 -402 270011 011 033 001 00
174230 1710N 08601W 8426 01582 0125 +165 -401 271011 011 030 001 00
$$
;
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Re: ATL: FRANKLIN - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#620 Postby CrazyC83 » Mon Aug 07, 2017 12:44 pm

It seems that Dvorak accurately predicted the intensity almost exactly right here. No change seems most likely - 50 kt, pressure 999.
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