ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

looking pretty much due west to me. Now we take interest in how far west this gets because conditions appear to be favorable for redevelopment in a few days especially with the 12Z Euro on board:

[northjaxpro]

I totally agree with you about this point you made in your post above!

[northjaxpro]

EURO may be the most reliable of the models, but even that model has had its issues so far this season
Nothing is etched in stone for those who hug the EURO so heavily.

99L is going to be a very interesting system to track over the next week or so
This entity is not dying off folks!!!!

[gatorcane]

surprisingly the GFS has a stronger ridge and expands more west over the SW Atlantic than the Euro around the 5-7 day timeframe. Usually the Euro is the one with the stronger ridge. Will be interesting to see just how far west this system could get if it develops. I am not sold on a recurve yet.

[AutoPenalti]

If it means anything, we've had very hot temps in Broward (hovering below 90) with a light breeze from the south east.

Expecting some isolated showers by tomorrow thru Thursday from the sea breeze.

[ronjon]

surprisingly the GFS has a stronger ridge and expands more west over the SW Atlantic than the Euro around the 5-7 day timeframe. Usually the Euro is the one with the stronger ridge. Will be interesting to see just how far west this system could get if it develops. I am not sold on a recurve yet.

12z GFS 500 mb ridging and position of 99L at 168 hours - much stronger ridging wth vorticity further south than Euro - might be nail biting time in a week off the FL east coast.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=z500aNorm&runtime=2017080712&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=110

[AtlanticWind]

If it means anything, we've had very hot temps in Broward (hovering below 90) with a light breeze from the south east.

Expecting some isolated showers by tomorrow thru Thursday from the sea breeze.

Long term (Wednesday night-Sunday)...model guidance continue to
depict a developing upper level trough moving across the state
late Thursday and into Friday, bringing increasing deep layer
moisture and more upper level support for enhanced convection,
especially during the late afternoon and evening hours. Some
storms may become severe, but widespread severe weather is not
anticipated at this time.

Once the upper trough move away from the area, the high pressure
over the Atlantic expands again into South Florida, with more
typical summer time weather through the weekend.
From Miami NWS

Talking about the high rebuilding next weekend.

[northjaxpro]

The biggest weather feature to watch down the pike is the trough coming down into the CONUS midsection during the next week.

Will this next trough follow in the abnormal pattern we have had this summer with troughs and fronts dropping all the way south to the Gulf Coast/GOM, or will we finally see the Bermuda ridge hold firm and flex its might by the start of next week?

We will find out in the days to come......

[Siker]

EPS support up to ~30/51 members, up from 10/51 last run.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/894643838744178689

[Weather150]

So if 38 out 51 Euro ensembles are developing 99L into at least a depression, that is about 75% of the Euro ensembles developing 99L down the road now.
Will have to watch.

[GeneratorPower]

This will be a classic case of how strong is the ridge to the north of the system, and at what point does it recurve, if at all. The Atlantic always seems to offer close shaves for the East Coast. We'll see. At 162+ hours out, a lot can change.

[weathaguyry]

The biggest weather feature to watch down the pike is the trough coming down into the CONUS midsection during the next week.

Will this next trough follow in the abnormal pattern we have had this summer with troughs and fronts dropping all the way south to the Gulf Coast/GOM, or will we finally see the Bermuda ridge hold firm and flex its might by the start of next week?

We will find out in the days to come......

A deep trough would not be good, because I believe that's what led Irene to run up the entire east coast, the Bermuda High and a deep trough battling would lead something to move just about due north until one wins over

[Kingarabian]

EPS support up to ~30/51 members, up from 10/51 last run.

Yeah, almost a complete consensus on a TS forming and eventually recurving from the EPS.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/894644656935403521




 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/894645636267745281




 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/894649614460125184




 https://twitter.com/EdValleeWx/status/894646428454277121

[northjaxpro]

The biggest weather feature to watch down the pike is the trough coming down into the CONUS midsection during the next week.

Will this next trough follow in the abnormal pattern we have had this summer with troughs and fronts dropping all the way south to the Gulf Coast/GOM, or will we finally see the Bermuda ridge hold firm and flex its might by the start of next week?

We will find out in the days to come......

A deep trough would not be good, because I believe that's what led Irene to run up the entire east coast, the Bermuda High and a deep trough battling would lead something to move just about due north until one wins over

Well, we will have to see how the trough evolves and h how it will be orientated with the models by this weekend. What makes me a bit anxious is that some of the NWS WFOs are forecasting the ridge to build back in this weekend. Miami WFO is among those calling for that to happen in their Forecast Discussion this afternoon. We really need to pay close attention on the evolution of the ridge and the trough as the week progresses.

[weathaguyry]

The biggest weather feature to watch down the pike is the trough coming down into the CONUS midsection during the next week.

Will this next trough follow in the abnormal pattern we have had this summer with troughs and fronts dropping all the way south to the Gulf Coast/GOM, or will we finally see the Bermuda ridge hold firm and flex its might by the start of next week?

We will find out in the days to come......

A deep trough would not be good, because I believe that's what led Irene to run up the entire east coast, the Bermuda High and a deep trough battling would lead something to move just about due north until one wins over

Well, we will have to see how the trough evolves and h how it will be orientated by this weekend. What makes me a bit anxious is that some of the NES WFOs are forecasting the ridge to build back in this weekend. Miami WFO is among those calling for that to happen in their Forecast Discussion this afternoon. We really need to pay close attention on the evolution of the ridge and the trough as the week progresses.

Yes, I think overall the entire East Coast should be keeping an eye out for 99L/ future Gert

[ronjon]

12z NAVGEM blows 99L up in the SW Atlantic now.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2017080712&fh=180&xpos=0&ypos=0

[gatorcane]

Note how the Euro seems to spin off a new vorticity on the northern part of the wave that develops. The current vorticity ends up dying out. If the northern one is not the one that develops maybe this ends up further west.

0 to 96 hour animation that shows this:

[Bocadude85]

The models are almost always to far east in the beginning. Hurricane Matthew is a great example of the models slowly shifting west and finally locking onto the final outcome 2 days or so out.