ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071825
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 27 20170807
181300 1650N 08500W 8429 01597 0146 +161 -393 207022 023 028 000 00
181330 1650N 08458W 8425 01603 0146 +165 -393 207022 023 029 000 00
181400 1650N 08456W 8434 01593 0146 +165 -393 208023 023 030 000 00
181430 1650N 08455W 8429 01600 0147 +165 -393 210024 024 029 000 00
181500 1650N 08453W 8428 01599 0147 +165 -392 207024 024 029 000 00
181530 1650N 08451W 8434 01595 0149 +164 -391 205025 025 030 000 00
181600 1650N 08449W 8428 01603 0150 +165 -390 204025 025 030 000 00
181630 1650N 08447W 8426 01603 0149 +163 -390 201025 026 031 000 00
181700 1650N 08446W 8433 01597 0148 +165 -389 202026 026 031 000 00
181730 1650N 08444W 8430 01602 0152 +161 -389 202026 027 031 001 00
181800 1650N 08442W 8424 01606 0151 +162 -389 200027 027 032 000 00
181830 1650N 08440W 8432 01599 0150 +165 -389 198026 027 031 001 00
181900 1650N 08438W 8431 01603 0154 +161 -389 194026 027 030 001 00
181930 1650N 08437W 8433 01600 0155 +160 -389 193027 028 031 000 00
182000 1650N 08435W 8429 01606 0155 +163 -389 194028 028 031 000 00
182030 1650N 08433W 8426 01606 0156 +160 -390 194027 027 031 000 00
182100 1650N 08431W 8436 01599 0155 +162 -390 192027 027 031 000 00
182130 1650N 08430W 8431 01606 0156 +165 -391 190026 027 029 000 00
182200 1650N 08428W 8425 01612 0156 +165 -391 190027 028 030 000 00
182230 1650N 08426W 8427 01610 0155 +167 -391 192027 028 031 000 00
$$
;

[wxman57]

any chance is stays intact over mexico and crosses into the epac as another named storm?

Hard to survive crossing all those mountains.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071833
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 28 20170807
182300 1650N 08424W 8433 01604 0156 +167 -391 192028 028 030 000 00
182330 1650N 08423W 8425 01609 0153 +165 -391 191029 030 030 000 00
182400 1650N 08421W 8433 01595 0146 +166 -390 189028 029 030 000 00
182430 1650N 08419W 8429 01600 0145 +165 -390 187028 028 030 000 00
182500 1650N 08418W 8425 01602 0142 +168 -389 188029 029 030 000 00
182530 1650N 08416W 8431 01594 0140 +168 -388 187029 030 030 000 00
182600 1650N 08414W 8428 01598 0141 +165 -388 189029 030 031 000 00
182630 1650N 08412W 8430 01594 0141 +166 -388 189029 029 031 000 00
182700 1650N 08411W 8434 01592 0141 +165 -386 188028 029 030 001 03
182730 1651N 08410W 8434 01592 0143 +163 -384 185027 028 /// /// 03
182800 1652N 08411W 8438 01589 0143 +165 -384 183027 027 032 000 00
182830 1653N 08412W 8425 01599 0139 +165 -384 182028 029 033 000 00
182900 1655N 08414W 8428 01594 0137 +170 -384 179030 030 033 000 00
182930 1656N 08415W 8433 01589 0138 +170 -383 181029 030 032 000 00
183000 1657N 08416W 8430 01592 0137 +168 -383 178029 029 032 000 00
183030 1659N 08418W 8426 01597 0139 +165 -384 178029 029 033 000 00
183100 1700N 08419W 8429 01591 0138 +164 -384 179029 029 033 001 03
183130 1701N 08420W 8434 01586 0140 +162 -384 180030 031 033 000 00
183200 1702N 08422W 8433 01588 0138 +160 -384 182031 032 031 001 00
183230 1704N 08423W 8429 01589 0136 +164 -385 182032 032 031 000 00
$$
;

[tropicwatch]

Any thoughts on what effects the low over Texas might have on Franklin?

[wxman57]

Any thoughts on what effects the low over Texas might have on Franklin?

Probably none. Too far away.

[GCANE]

That south eyewall hot tower looks like it is pouring out the latent heat.
Starting to clear out the cirrus again.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071843
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 29 20170807
183300 1705N 08424W 8429 01589 0136 +162 -386 183032 033 030 001 00
183330 1706N 08426W 8430 01586 0136 +160 -387 184034 035 030 001 00
183400 1708N 08427W 8430 01586 0136 +160 -387 186031 035 030 001 00
183430 1709N 08428W 8425 01592 0136 +160 -388 185031 032 032 002 00
183500 1710N 08430W 8425 01588 0136 +156 -389 185032 033 031 004 00
183530 1712N 08431W 8431 01581 0130 +163 -390 183032 033 034 004 00
183600 1713N 08432W 8431 01585 0134 +159 -391 186031 032 035 008 00
183630 1714N 08434W 8434 01577 0141 +141 -393 181030 032 048 025 03
183700 1715N 08435W 8423 01587 0146 +136 -394 176029 034 049 036 00
183730 1717N 08436W 8429 01577 0135 +149 -396 186027 029 058 018 00
183800 1718N 08438W 8435 01575 0134 +150 -399 182029 032 036 007 00
183830 1719N 08439W 8425 01587 0130 +157 -403 185028 029 036 007 00
183900 1720N 08440W 8429 01576 0124 +160 -406 184029 030 036 003 00
183930 1722N 08442W 8432 01575 0125 +160 -408 185029 031 034 003 00
184000 1723N 08443W 8426 01581 0126 +159 -410 183030 030 034 002 00
184030 1724N 08444W 8429 01577 0126 +156 -410 181028 030 033 004 00
184100 1726N 08446W 8429 01576 0127 +155 -409 182029 030 032 006 00
184130 1727N 08447W 8419 01586 0129 +149 -408 183030 032 039 022 00
184200 1728N 08448W 8442 01563 0137 +135 -408 182028 034 042 034 00
184230 1729N 08450W 8441 01560 0135 +131 -410 184024 025 042 023 03
$$
;

58 kt SFMR, but it doesn't match up too well with other observations.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071853
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 30 20170807
184300 1731N 08451W 8414 01588 0138 +132 -412 189026 027 041 017 00
184330 1732N 08452W 8433 01566 0130 +140 -412 192026 028 038 009 00
184400 1733N 08453W 8433 01569 0121 +152 -414 189029 030 035 003 00
184430 1734N 08455W 8438 01560 0130 +135 -416 184024 030 035 016 03
184500 1736N 08456W 8452 01548 0127 +143 -418 202026 027 040 020 00
184530 1737N 08457W 8423 01574 0117 +154 -418 207023 027 032 005 00
184600 1738N 08459W 8431 01564 0123 +141 -419 194028 033 038 009 00
184630 1739N 08500W 8439 01555 0131 +132 -419 205031 033 043 015 03
184700 1741N 08501W 8427 01574 0130 +139 -420 207030 030 037 008 00
184730 1742N 08502W 8429 01572 0121 +156 -420 213031 032 033 005 00
184800 1743N 08504W 8429 01576 0126 +153 -420 210032 033 032 003 00
184830 1744N 08505W 8429 01575 0124 +154 -420 207034 036 034 005 00
184900 1745N 08506W 8436 01568 0125 +150 -420 209034 036 035 006 00
184930 1747N 08507W 8430 01571 0122 +154 -419 209034 035 037 005 03
185000 1748N 08509W 8425 01572 0119 +153 -417 206031 032 036 006 00
185030 1749N 08510W 8432 01566 0120 +151 -416 202031 032 036 011 00
185100 1750N 08511W 8429 01565 0119 +148 -415 205033 033 036 010 00
185130 1751N 08512W 8430 01564 0113 +153 -413 211035 036 036 005 00
185200 1753N 08514W 8426 01564 0106 +159 -413 215036 037 036 004 00
185230 1754N 08515W 8422 01564 0108 +152 -412 210036 039 037 006 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

999mb seems like a pretty high reading for Franklin's appearance

The background pressure is very high, like 1020. I would have thought 999 would be a hurricane in that environment.

[GCANE]

Cozumel buoy reporting a 50-knot gust

[Aric Dunn]

That south eyewall hot tower looks like it is pouring out the latent heat.
Starting to clear out the cirrus again.

Wont take to many more to drag the pressure down enough to sustain a inner core

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071903
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 31 20170807
185300 1755N 08516W 8431 01554 0111 +142 -411 213034 038 042 009 00
185330 1756N 08517W 8436 01551 0113 +139 -411 214034 035 041 014 00
185400 1757N 08519W 8425 01558 0112 +135 -411 218036 038 045 018 03
185430 1759N 08520W 8421 01558 0100 +149 -412 217033 036 043 012 00
185500 1800N 08521W 8434 01543 0097 +151 -413 224034 035 044 005 00
185530 1801N 08522W 8423 01551 0101 +137 -415 224028 034 048 010 03
185600 1802N 08523W 8427 01549 0100 +138 -416 238031 033 045 011 00
185630 1803N 08525W 8424 01546 0092 +141 -416 239030 033 042 008 00
185700 1804N 08526W 8429 01538 0086 +147 -418 237029 031 040 009 00
185730 1805N 08527W 8421 01542 0087 +138 -419 241027 029 039 009 00
185800 1807N 08528W 8438 01521 0083 +143 -419 254026 027 041 011 03
185830 1808N 08529W 8426 01530 0065 +163 -419 261022 026 033 001 00
185900 1810N 08529W 8426 01527 0058 +172 -419 270021 022 031 000 03
185930 1811N 08529W 8432 01519 0049 +178 -417 284020 022 034 000 00
190000 1813N 08529W 8427 01516 0040 +179 -415 281020 021 034 002 00
190030 1814N 08529W 8420 01518 0035 +177 -412 269015 021 030 002 03
190100 1816N 08529W 8433 01499 0028 +178 -408 259008 011 026 001 03
190130 1818N 08529W 8422 01506 0022 +179 -404 249002 005 026 000 00
190200 1819N 08529W 8426 01501 0020 +181 -399 056005 008 025 001 00
190230 1821N 08529W 8440 01484 0015 +186 -395 070016 018 028 001 00
$$
;

[GCANE]

Starting to see a clearing to the north from the northern BAT.
May get a fix from recon farther north from last fix.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071913
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 32 20170807
190300 1822N 08529W 8450 01473 0015 +186 -391 077024 026 033 001 00
190330 1824N 08531W 8420 01513 0026 +180 -388 075029 031 033 000 00
190400 1825N 08532W 8430 01506 0033 +176 -385 075031 031 036 000 00
190430 1826N 08533W 8429 01512 0041 +173 -382 074032 033 041 001 00
190500 1828N 08534W 8430 01515 0049 +169 -381 073037 040 039 001 00
190530 1829N 08536W 8430 01520 0056 +167 -380 069038 038 038 000 00
190600 1830N 08537W 8425 01530 0064 +162 -379 070040 041 036 001 00
190630 1831N 08539W 8432 01531 0071 +161 -379 069041 042 034 000 00
190700 1832N 08540W 8428 01537 0072 +168 -379 074037 040 033 001 00
190730 1834N 08541W 8436 01534 0075 +169 -379 072035 035 034 000 00
190800 1835N 08543W 8422 01549 0079 +169 -368 070034 036 034 002 00
190830 1836N 08544W 8428 01545 0086 +153 -090 069034 035 036 004 00
190900 1837N 08545W 8428 01549 //// +157 //// 071031 034 036 003 01
190930 1838N 08547W 8425 01552 //// +160 //// 069031 031 034 001 01
191000 1840N 08548W 8432 01547 //// +165 //// 068033 034 034 002 01
191030 1841N 08549W 8426 01555 //// +155 //// 065035 036 033 002 01
191100 1842N 08551W 8429 01553 //// +155 //// 068035 035 034 003 01
191130 1843N 08552W 8433 01551 //// +150 //// 067031 035 035 003 01
191200 1844N 08553W 8428 01559 //// +168 //// 069031 033 035 004 01
191230 1846N 08555W 8430 01558 0091 +186 //// 072034 034 041 009 01
$$
;

Another missed center. Pressure in this flight bottomed out at 1002 but with strong winds.

[GCANE]

Looks like recon took a hard right at the last minute to get thru the eye.
NW of the last fix.

[djones65]

It's not that the flight crew is "missing" the center, in fact 2 knots of wind is pretty good for finding the 850 mb pressure level circulation center. But the surface center is not co-located with the 850 mb center. I suspect the surface center is about 20-25 miles west of the flight lvl location.

[OntarioEggplant]

So I'm thinking the eye feature isn't a traditional eye, but rather a combination of dry air that was sucked into it and the collapse of what was trying to become an eyewall... It allowed the center to open up like that and is why the intensity is not higher than it appears. Should tighten up and strengthen more before landfall though.

[drezee]

Looks like recon took a hard right at the last minute to get thru the eye.
NW of the last fix.

Pressure looks higher but heights are lower. Turbulent center but high energy...if it bundles watchout

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071923
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 33 20170807
191300 1847N 08556W 8431 01562 0107 +170 //// 061034 036 048 029 01
191330 1848N 08557W 8423 01566 0107 +149 +149 060031 033 044 023 00
191400 1849N 08558W 8428 01564 0107 +140 +135 061029 030 040 013 00
191430 1850N 08600W 8425 01566 0108 +142 +120 064027 028 040 007 00
191500 1852N 08601W 8424 01569 0100 +156 +109 065027 028 039 004 00
191530 1853N 08602W 8430 01564 0104 +156 +102 063026 027 038 004 00
191600 1854N 08604W 8425 01569 0101 +159 +098 059027 028 037 005 00
191630 1855N 08605W 8431 01564 0104 +156 +096 058029 029 038 005 00
191700 1856N 08606W 8429 01566 0103 +160 +095 058030 030 037 003 00
191730 1857N 08608W 8432 01566 0105 +160 +095 059031 031 037 002 00
191800 1859N 08609W 8429 01568 0102 +162 +096 056031 031 037 002 00
191830 1900N 08610W 8428 01569 0104 +160 +098 059030 031 036 001 00
191900 1901N 08611W 8429 01569 0105 +159 +100 058030 031 035 002 00
191930 1902N 08613W 8424 01574 0108 +155 +102 060033 033 034 002 00
192000 1903N 08614W 8432 01566 0105 +159 +103 057033 033 034 001 00
192030 1904N 08615W 8428 01570 0107 +157 +105 059032 033 034 001 00
192100 1906N 08617W 8430 01569 0107 +159 +106 058032 033 034 001 00
192130 1907N 08618W 8429 01570 0104 +161 +107 060031 031 032 002 00
192200 1908N 08619W 8428 01571 0104 +162 +108 062030 031 033 002 00
192230 1909N 08621W 8430 01569 0107 +159 +108 061028 029 031 002 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071933
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 34 20170807
192300 1910N 08622W 8426 01573 0107 +159 +108 062030 030 032 002 00
192330 1911N 08623W 8428 01573 0107 +159 +108 062030 031 032 003 00
192400 1913N 08625W 8432 01569 0107 +161 +108 059031 031 032 003 00
192430 1914N 08626W 8424 01577 0105 +164 +108 059032 034 030 004 00
192500 1915N 08627W 8429 01574 0104 +168 +108 058034 035 030 003 00
192530 1916N 08628W 8429 01574 0104 +166 +109 055033 034 030 000 00
192600 1917N 08630W 8428 01575 0107 +165 +111 056031 033 029 000 00
192630 1918N 08631W 8433 01571 0108 +166 +113 054028 030 030 001 00
192700 1920N 08632W 8424 01580 0105 +170 +115 058025 027 030 000 00
192730 1921N 08634W 8435 01569 0106 +166 +117 058024 025 032 000 00
192800 1922N 08635W 8429 01576 0108 +164 +119 056023 023 031 001 00
192830 1923N 08636W 8428 01576 0107 +165 +121 056022 023 032 001 00
192900 1924N 08637W 8429 01575 0108 +165 +122 054023 023 032 001 00
192930 1925N 08639W 8432 01571 0108 +165 +122 052022 023 031 002 00
193000 1926N 08640W 8429 01575 0107 +164 +123 055021 021 031 002 00
193030 1928N 08641W 8429 01576 0109 +165 +123 053021 021 032 003 00
193100 1929N 08643W 8425 01580 0110 +164 +123 053022 023 035 001 00
193130 1930N 08644W 8432 01575 0111 +161 +124 053024 025 035 001 00
193200 1931N 08645W 8426 01580 0112 +161 +124 055025 026 034 003 00
193230 1932N 08647W 8433 01574 0110 +165 +124 056026 027 034 003 00
$$
;