ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Looks like recon took a hard right at the last minute to get thru the eye.
NW of the last fix.

Pressure looks higher but heights are lower. Turbulent center but high energy...if it bundles watchout

Getting a better ring of towers around it should do the trick.
Maybe after sun down.
Wonder when the next microwave pass will be.
37 GHz should tell the tale.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 071941
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072017
A. 07/19:01:40Z
B. 18 deg 18 min N
085 deg 29 min W
C. 850 mb 1427 m
D. 48 kt
E. 159 deg 17 nm
F. 209 deg 39 kt
G. 150 deg 27 nm
H. 998 mb
I. 16 C / 1527 m
J. 19 C / 1507 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF304 0107A FRANKLIN OB 14
MAX FL WIND 46 KT 087 / 23 NM 17:13:30Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 42 KT 324 / 16 NM 19:06:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 255 / 7 KT
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071943
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 35 20170807
193300 1933N 08648W 8427 01581 0110 +165 +124 058027 028 034 003 00
193330 1935N 08649W 8426 01580 0109 +167 +124 061028 028 034 003 00
193400 1936N 08650W 8434 01575 0111 +167 +124 062029 030 035 003 03
193430 1936N 08652W 8422 01586 0111 +166 +126 059030 031 /// /// 03
193500 1935N 08653W 8432 01576 0113 +164 +128 056027 029 031 006 00
193530 1933N 08653W 8430 01577 0112 +166 +129 055027 028 034 005 00
193600 1931N 08653W 8429 01580 0109 +169 +129 053026 027 034 005 00
193630 1930N 08653W 8429 01579 0109 +168 +129 050027 027 035 004 00
193700 1928N 08654W 8429 01577 0105 +171 +129 050028 028 034 003 00
193730 1926N 08654W 8429 01577 0107 +170 +129 048025 027 033 002 00
193800 1924N 08654W 8429 01577 0107 +169 +129 041023 025 031 003 00
193830 1922N 08654W 8428 01577 0108 +166 +129 035023 024 035 004 00
193900 1921N 08654W 8427 01579 0107 +166 +129 038023 024 034 004 00
193930 1919N 08655W 8430 01576 0107 +167 +129 040025 026 034 003 00
194000 1917N 08655W 8426 01580 0108 +165 +129 038025 026 032 003 00
194030 1915N 08655W 8430 01576 0108 +165 +129 039024 025 032 003 00
194100 1913N 08655W 8428 01577 0109 +164 +129 044025 025 031 003 00
194130 1912N 08656W 8429 01576 0111 +160 +129 044027 028 032 002 00
194200 1910N 08656W 8429 01576 0109 +164 +129 046026 028 031 001 00
194230 1908N 08656W 8429 01577 0109 +162 +129 042025 026 030 001 00
$$
;

[Hammy]

Is it me or has Franklin been moving more NW than WNW over the last several hours?

[cycloneye]

Is it me or has Franklin been moving more NW than WNW over the last several hours?

Plane fixes has that NW movement.

[ATCcane]

Is it me or has Franklin been moving more NW than WNW over the last several hours?

Only two fixes to go by, but recon seems to show that.

[wxman57]

Is it me or has Franklin been moving more NW than WNW over the last several hours?

Only two fixes to go by, but recon seems to show that.

Note that these fixes are not necessarily in the "center" of the center. You can't judge movement well by only 2 fixes.

[GCANE]

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 071954
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 36 20170807
194300 1906N 08656W 8429 01575 0107 +165 +129 032022 023 029 000 00
194330 1904N 08656W 8428 01576 0106 +165 +130 030021 022 029 001 00
194400 1903N 08657W 8428 01575 0104 +165 +131 025022 022 029 001 00
194430 1901N 08657W 8428 01574 0108 +157 +131 023021 022 034 004 00
194500 1859N 08657W 8434 01566 0108 +157 +131 025020 021 036 002 00
194530 1857N 08657W 8425 01575 0102 +166 +129 023020 021 036 003 00
194600 1855N 08657W 8432 01568 0115 +144 +128 020023 026 035 007 00
194630 1854N 08658W 8433 01566 0114 +145 +125 016023 027 037 007 00
194700 1852N 08658W 8435 01566 0116 +143 +122 022022 024 035 006 00
194730 1850N 08658W 8426 01573 0108 +153 +118 020021 022 036 003 00
194800 1848N 08658W 8438 01562 0109 +152 +115 016022 024 035 006 00
194830 1846N 08658W 8425 01574 0103 +160 +114 014021 022 029 003 00
194900 1844N 08659W 8432 01566 0102 +160 +114 006022 025 026 001 00
194930 1843N 08659W 8423 01575 0110 +150 +115 007024 026 030 005 00
195000 1841N 08659W 8434 01562 0107 +152 +116 005022 024 031 007 00
195030 1839N 08659W 8427 01569 0115 +142 +116 011021 024 037 006 00
195100 1837N 08659W 8429 01568 0109 +149 +115 002020 021 030 004 00
195130 1835N 08700W 8429 01569 0103 +160 +113 003022 023 029 002 00
195200 1834N 08700W 8426 01571 0113 +144 +114 006021 024 029 005 00
195230 1832N 08700W 8425 01571 0108 +151 +114 357019 020 030 004 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 072003
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 37 20170807
195300 1830N 08700W 8428 01569 0103 +160 +113 001020 020 028 001 00
195330 1828N 08700W 8428 01569 0103 +160 +114 001021 021 027 001 00
195400 1826N 08701W 8430 01564 0107 +150 +116 015020 023 038 029 00
195430 1824N 08701W 8425 01566 0112 +136 +118 001014 018 049 029 03
195500 1823N 08701W 8429 01566 0114 +137 +116 004021 022 043 021 00
195530 1821N 08701W 8430 01565 0102 +156 +113 003018 020 027 003 00
195600 1819N 08701W 8430 01564 0102 +158 +111 357019 020 024 001 00
195630 1817N 08702W 8430 01565 0100 +159 +110 350018 019 024 001 00
195700 1815N 08702W 8426 01566 0099 +159 +111 349017 017 023 000 00
195730 1814N 08702W 8433 01558 0096 +160 +113 349015 016 022 001 00
195800 1812N 08702W 8428 01562 0094 +160 +116 345014 016 023 001 00
195830 1810N 08702W 8429 01559 0094 +160 +119 343013 013 024 002 00
195900 1808N 08703W 8429 01560 0092 +160 +120 341013 013 025 002 00
195930 1807N 08703W 8429 01559 0091 +163 +122 330013 014 023 003 00
200000 1805N 08703W 8429 01559 0093 +158 +124 339013 013 026 003 00
200030 1803N 08703W 8429 01560 0094 +159 +125 331014 015 026 003 00
200100 1802N 08703W 8430 01560 0093 +161 +126 326012 013 026 001 00
200130 1800N 08704W 8426 01566 0101 +149 +127 339012 012 026 007 00
200200 1758N 08704W 8434 01558 0097 +159 +126 318012 013 027 006 00
200230 1756N 08704W 8431 01561 0095 +161 +126 321012 014 026 006 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 072013
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 38 20170807
200300 1755N 08704W 8437 01555 0095 +161 +126 318014 014 024 004 00
200330 1753N 08704W 8426 01566 0094 +163 +127 316013 014 024 000 00
200400 1751N 08705W 8430 01563 0094 +164 +129 314012 013 024 000 00
200430 1750N 08705W 8425 01568 0093 +165 +131 310013 013 025 001 00
200500 1748N 08705W 8429 01564 0093 +165 +132 312014 014 024 001 00
200530 1746N 08705W 8429 01564 0091 +166 +133 309014 014 024 001 00
200600 1744N 08705W 8428 01565 0093 +165 +135 312013 014 023 000 00
200630 1743N 08706W 8430 01564 0093 +167 +136 312012 013 024 000 00
200700 1741N 08706W 8425 01568 0089 +170 +137 306012 013 023 001 00
200730 1739N 08706W 8433 01560 0088 +173 +139 309011 012 024 001 00
200800 1738N 08706W 8429 01565 0089 +173 +140 306012 013 024 000 00
200830 1736N 08706W 8425 01569 0088 +175 +141 303013 014 025 000 00
200900 1734N 08707W 8432 01560 0085 +175 +143 306014 014 022 001 00
200930 1733N 08707W 8426 01566 0089 +172 +144 315012 014 021 001 00
201000 1731N 08707W 8430 01564 0090 +170 +146 320012 013 023 000 00
201030 1729N 08707W 8429 01565 0087 +176 +146 319014 014 022 001 00
201100 1727N 08707W 8429 01565 0086 +178 +147 316013 014 023 000 00
201130 1726N 08707W 8429 01565 0086 +179 +148 310011 012 020 001 00
201200 1724N 08708W 8430 01564 0086 +177 +149 306011 011 020 000 00
201230 1722N 08708W 8430 01566 0089 +175 +151 306011 011 020 000 00
$$
;

[Aric Dunn]

Really started to accelerate the last couple hours.. running out of time to make it to hurricane strength. Something is not allowing the convection to maintain around the center. its also riding the northern line of all the guidence looks like its going to come in farther north than anticipated.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 072023
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 39 20170807
201300 1721N 08708W 8425 01570 0090 +175 +152 302012 013 020 000 03
201330 1719N 08708W 8429 01568 0089 +175 +153 288012 013 /// /// 03
201400 1719N 08706W 8429 01564 0087 +171 +155 277011 012 014 002 03
201430 1721N 08705W 8436 01559 0089 +174 +157 283009 010 020 001 00
201500 1722N 08704W 8427 01568 0087 +174 +157 285009 010 021 002 00
201530 1723N 08703W 8429 01565 0088 +175 +157 286010 010 021 002 00
201600 1724N 08701W 8429 01566 0088 +174 +156 291010 011 020 003 00
201630 1726N 08700W 8428 01566 0087 +175 +155 289011 011 021 001 00
201700 1727N 08659W 8429 01564 0086 +175 +154 284011 011 022 001 00
201730 1728N 08658W 8428 01565 0087 +175 +153 278011 012 022 001 00
201800 1729N 08656W 8429 01564 0087 +172 +152 281012 012 023 001 00
201830 1731N 08655W 8428 01564 0087 +170 +151 277012 012 022 002 00
201900 1732N 08654W 8430 01561 0089 +170 +150 279012 012 022 001 00
201930 1733N 08653W 8426 01566 0089 +170 +149 274012 012 021 002 00
202000 1734N 08651W 8430 01563 0089 +170 +148 273012 013 022 001 00
202030 1735N 08650W 8429 01564 0089 +170 +147 271013 013 023 001 00
202100 1737N 08649W 8428 01564 0091 +167 +146 273013 014 024 001 00
202130 1738N 08648W 8430 01559 0092 +163 +145 276013 013 024 002 00
202200 1739N 08646W 8433 01558 0092 +161 +144 277012 013 024 002 00
202230 1740N 08645W 8428 01564 0091 +161 +143 275014 014 023 005 00
$$
;

[GCANE]

Cozumel Buoy

[wxman57]

Looks too disorganized to strengthen much before landfall tonight. Only very spotty strong winds found by recon, too.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 072033
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 40 20170807
202300 1742N 08644W 8432 01559 0098 +152 +141 278015 016 032 015 00
202330 1743N 08642W 8425 01566 0108 +138 +137 262011 016 037 017 00
202400 1744N 08641W 8429 01559 0107 +135 +133 266016 017 040 022 00
202430 1745N 08640W 8438 01549 0097 +150 +127 281016 017 030 003 00
202500 1746N 08639W 8428 01559 0095 +153 +122 279018 019 028 004 00
202530 1748N 08637W 8429 01557 0093 +154 +117 278021 022 028 004 00
202600 1749N 08636W 8431 01554 0097 +147 +114 272020 022 029 009 00
202630 1750N 08635W 8424 01560 0099 +143 +111 268020 021 031 010 00
202700 1751N 08633W 8430 01554 0097 +145 +109 273020 021 030 012 00
202730 1753N 08632W 8428 01558 0095 +152 +107 273019 021 030 010 00
202800 1754N 08631W 8427 01558 0098 +146 +106 271020 021 030 010 00
202830 1755N 08630W 8432 01554 0101 +142 +105 276021 022 032 010 00
202900 1756N 08628W 8428 01555 0103 +135 +104 279022 023 032 012 00
202930 1758N 08627W 8430 01552 0103 +135 +103 280024 025 033 015 00
203000 1759N 08626W 8432 01548 0100 +134 +102 278024 025 033 014 00
203030 1800N 08624W 8427 01551 0103 +127 +100 274021 024 035 017 00
203100 1801N 08623W 8435 01543 0103 +127 +098 287016 021 036 021 00
203130 1803N 08622W 8423 01554 0100 +130 +096 307013 017 038 015 00
203200 1804N 08621W 8424 01553 0092 +138 +095 314019 020 036 011 00
203230 1805N 08620W 8429 01546 0090 +143 +095 314019 020 033 006 00
$$
;

[GCANE]

Really started to accelerate the last couple hours.. running out of time to make it to hurricane strength. Something is not allowing the convection to maintain around the center. its also riding the northern line of all the guidence looks like its going to come in farther north than anticipated.

EWRC

[Aric Dunn]

this recon pass looks like a wobble back more westerly. pretty normal with this type of convective pattern.

[Aric Dunn]

Really started to accelerate the last couple hours.. running out of time to make it to hurricane strength. Something is not allowing the convection to maintain around the center. its also riding the northern line of all the guidence looks like its going to come in farther north than anticipated.

EWRC

haha.. no not yet.. lol

it has not even established a mature eyewall

[GCANE]

Really started to accelerate the last couple hours.. running out of time to make it to hurricane strength. Something is not allowing the convection to maintain around the center. its also riding the northern line of all the guidence looks like its going to come in farther north than anticipated.

EWRC

Being more serious, it looks like there may be some 500mb vort interaction.
200mb looks very clean.
I don't think land is going to phase it much.
GOM should get it cranking.