2017 indicators: SST's / MSLP / SAL / Steering / Instability

[Alyono]

yet no model has anything forming for the next 1-2 weeks

[TheStormExpert]

If this doesn't say season cancel I don't know what does.

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/894541824123187200




 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/894542043921436673

[WeatherHoon]

If this doesn't say season cancel I don't know what does.

What's stopping the second half of September from being active?

Also, haven't we seen storms form in the Atlantic before, even during a "suppressed" phase?

[gatorcane]

If this doesn't say season cancel I don't know what does.
https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/8 ... 4123187200
https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/8 ... 3921436673

We have a pretty good-looking systems in the Caribbean right now but will just not garner up the attention had this system been heading for the US Gulf coast or Florida. The other thing to realize is that your area (South Florida) is most susceptible to tropical cyclone hits in October than any other month contrary to what most people think though September is where South Florida has seen the strongest cyclone hits. My point is that we just don't have visibility into September or October at this point let alone the rest of this month. The Atlantic will very likely start to produce some (quite a number of) more systems as we had towards the peak.

[RL3AO]

I see you conveniently ignored his previous tweets which suggest the remainder of August could be very active and decided to only focus on what could be a slower period.

[Bocadude85]

If this doesn't say season cancel I don't know what does.

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/894541824123187200




 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/894542043921436673

A tweet and a three week forecast says season cancel you? I guess because it's on twitter it must be true. Just last week you guys were saying we wouldn't have any storms anytime soon and now we have a potential hurricane heading for Mexico. The 6Z GFS is still showing a MDR storm around August 20th btw. We still have almost 4 months left of hurricane season and storms will develop when they find favorable conditions no matter how many times you say season cancel.

[tolakram]

Let's try and avoid hashing over the same thing again and again.

Original forecasts were for a normal season. I know we've had a ramp up since then but in the end short term excitement over apparent forecast conditions don't usually pan out. The same can be said about forecasting down periods. Skill in both of these types of short to mid term forecasting seems really really low.

For all I know we will enter an active period by mid August and the models won't reflect it until a few days before.

If you (anyone) is posting to bemoan a bad outcome rather than demonstrate an indicator JUST DON'T. Personal disappointment posts with no contributing data are not helpful. We observe, we document, and then we can review once it's over. Maybe we learn something.

[TheStormExpert]

I see you conveniently ignored his previous tweets which suggest the remainder of August could be very active and decided to only focus on what could be a slower period.

I saw his previous tweets but these Kelvin Waves seem to be overhyped as many seem to be saying.

[RL3AO]

I see you conveniently ignored his previous tweets which suggest the remainder of August could be very active and decided to only focus on what could be a slower period.

I saw his previous tweets but these Kelvin Waves seem to be overhyped as many seem to be saying.

Ah but the three week forecast of bad conditions from the MJO/Kelvin waves are enough for you to scream season cancel?

[Ntxw]

If that forecast of the MJO (igniting over the IO) is true then his prediction is a decent one. But that also means assuming the progression of the MJO to continue traversing, the second half of Sept to early Oct may spark again. But we are discussing something 30-60 days away

[AutoPenalti]

Season cancelled posts need to stop, it was fun to joke around about it but now that we are amidst peak season, we need to start facing reality about what we have in store. An inactive week in the Atlantic does not mean that the whole remainder of the season will be inactive. We all know this. MJO has phases, it isn't permanently fixed on a specific location and we are seeing forecasts from 3 weeks in advance. We all know that climate changes are fluid. We can't predict so far into the future.

[Hammy]

Regarding the latest season cancel complaint post, 2000 (another TUTT-heavy season interestingly) featured a shutdown in late August/early September--there was nothing active in the Atlantic from Aug 24-Sep 11 (with the 23-24th being Debby's shredding from shear), and if you want to include only tropical systems (as Florence was subtropical in origin) then extend that through the 14th. The numbers after that were 8/5/2.

[WeatherEmperor]

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/8 ... 0331864064


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[Kingarabian]

Not trying to rag on Mike Ventrice, but I feel he puts too much weight on CCKW signals. It's to the point where he makes it seem as if CCKW phases are the sole indicators/precursors of TC activity which we all know is not true. That's why I felt uneasy when he had a tweet storm that the Atlantic will see a significant TC outbreak simply because a CCKW crossed the Atlantic.

[Steve]

Regarding the latest season cancel complaint post, 2000 (another TUTT-heavy season interestingly) featured a shutdown in late August/early September--there was nothing active in the Atlantic from Aug 24-Sep 11 (with the 23-24th being Debby's shredding from shear), and if you want to include only tropical systems (as Florence was subtropical in origin) then extend that through the 14th. The numbers after that were 8/5/2.

Yeah. We're at 6-0-0 at the moment plus TD #4. I pre-season guessed 14-6-2. So we'd need almost the same numbers after the 2000 down period to be right (8-6-2 instead of 8-5-2). However, if Franklin becomes a hurricane, we'll need exactly 8-5-2 again. There could easily be another one or two named systems out of this pulse (99L and the Eastern Atlantic). And I think we at least get 8 or 9 more named storms overall.

[RL3AO]

Not trying to rag on Mike Ventrice, but I feel he puts too much weight on CCKW signals. It's to the point where he makes it seem as if CCKW phases are the sole indicators/precursors of TC activity which we all know is not true. That's why I felt uneasy when he had a tweet storm that the Atlantic will see a significant TC outbreak simply because a CCKW crossed the Atlantic.

It's worth remembering that he's maybe spent more time than anyone in the world on cckws and tc genesis. It was his PhD thesis when very few cared about Kelvin waves outside of enso. It really is his baby.

[Kingarabian]

Not trying to rag on Mike Ventrice, but I feel he puts too much weight on CCKW signals. It's to the point where he makes it seem as if CCKW phases are the sole indicators/precursors of TC activity which we all know is not true. That's why I felt uneasy when he had a tweet storm that the Atlantic will see a significant TC outbreak simply because a CCKW crossed the Atlantic.

It's worth remembering that he's maybe spent more time than anyone in the world on cckws and tc genesis. It was his PhD thesis when very few cared about Kelvin waves outside of enso. It really is his baby.

I'm forever grateful for his research and highlighting the significance of CCKWs. Especially his Weebly page and the data he freely makes available for us. I just feel it's easy for people to misunderstand him when he makes those kind of statements.

[Macrocane]

Last year was the same story, people cancelled the season too early and in the 2nd half of the season things ramped up and we got Matthew, Nicole and Otto.
Phil Klotzbach has said before that in the last few years the Atlantic hurrican season has been more active towards late September and October.
If you look at the strongest storms in the las few seasons you will notice that they peaked in October (or almost):

-Ophelia 2011-October 2
-Sandy 2012-October 25
-2013 was a true season cancel
-Gonzalo 2014-October 16
-Joaquin-October 3
-Matthew-September 30

[RL3AO]

Not trying to rag on Mike Ventrice, but I feel he puts too much weight on CCKW signals. It's to the point where he makes it seem as if CCKW phases are the sole indicators/precursors of TC activity which we all know is not true. That's why I felt uneasy when he had a tweet storm that the Atlantic will see a significant TC outbreak simply because a CCKW crossed the Atlantic.

It's worth remembering that he's maybe spent more time than anyone in the world on cckws and tc genesis. It was his PhD thesis when very few cared about Kelvin waves outside of enso. It really is his baby.

I'm forever grateful for his research and highlighting the significance of CCKWs. Especially his Weebly page and the data he freely makes available for us. I just feel it's easy for people to misunderstand him when he makes those kind of statements.

It's the big issue with equatorial waves when trying to forecast with them. When you take 200 CCKWs and line them up and compare the results to climatology, you can get a statistically significant result of an increase TC genesis likelihood. However, when you look at an individual case, there's no way to say how important something was or wasn't. With the last Kelvin wave, there seemed to be an increase in convection and amplitude of the 99L wave over western Africa. Was that from the Kelvin wave? Would it have happened without it? There's no way to know. There seemed to be an amplification of convection associated with the wave that became Franklin when it was near the islands. Was it the Kelvin wave? The ULL to the north? Some small disturbance in low level flow from South America or the islands? Was it all of those? Was it none?

Would Franklin have developed anyway? If so, did the western Caribbean become favorable due to the CCKW passage? There's no way to know. The EPac shutting down surely helped the conditions of the Caribbean, but was that partly due to the suppressed part of the CCKW over the Pacific? So many questions that can't be answered. And that's what makes is beautiful and frustrating at the same time.

[Kingarabian]

It's worth remembering that he's maybe spent more time than anyone in the world on cckws and tc genesis. It was his PhD thesis when very few cared about Kelvin waves outside of enso. It really is his baby.

I'm forever grateful for his research and highlighting the significance of CCKWs. Especially his Weebly page and the data he freely makes available for us. I just feel it's easy for people to misunderstand him when he makes those kind of statements.

It's the big issue with equatorial waves when trying to forecast with them. When you take 200 CCKWs and line them up and compare the results to climatology, you can get a statistically significant result that then increase TC genesis likelihood. However, when you look at an individual case, theres no way to say how important something was or wasn't. With the last Kelvin wave, there seemed to be an increase in convection and amplitude of the 99L wave over western Africa. Was that from the Kelvin wave? Would it have happened without it? There's no way to know. There seemed to be an amplification of convection associated with the wave that became Franklin when it was near the islands. Was it the Kelvin wave? The ULL to the north? Some small disturbance in low level flow from South America or the islands? Was it all of those? Was it none?

Would Franklin have developed anyway? If so, did the western Caribbean become favorable due to the CCKW passage? There's no way to know. The EPac shutting down surely helped the conditions of the Caribbean, but was that partly due to the suppressed part of the CCKW over the Pacific? So many questions that can't be answered. And that's what makes is beautiful and frustrating at the same time.

Yeah wow. Way to put it in perspective... massive thumbs up! I definitely see where Mike is coming from and how tough it is to master these CCKW's.