ATL: FRANKLIN - Remnants - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 072153
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 48 20170807
214300 1956N 08605W 8428 01560 0092 +163 +137 100048 049 042 001 00
214330 1956N 08607W 8434 01556 0091 +164 +138 098047 049 043 001 00
214400 1956N 08609W 8430 01560 0092 +162 +138 102045 049 042 002 00
214430 1956N 08611W 8426 01564 0093 +158 +138 100045 046 042 001 00
214500 1956N 08613W 8431 01559 0092 +159 +137 101044 045 041 000 00
214530 1956N 08616W 8433 01556 0089 +164 +136 102042 042 041 000 00
214600 1956N 08618W 8427 01563 0091 +162 +135 097041 042 039 001 00
214630 1956N 08620W 8427 01562 0092 +159 +135 099042 043 038 001 00
214700 1956N 08622W 8432 01557 0099 +149 +134 096043 045 040 003 00
214730 1956N 08624W 8429 01559 0093 +157 +132 094044 046 041 001 00
214800 1956N 08626W 8433 01557 0090 +166 +129 093046 047 039 001 00
214830 1956N 08628W 8428 01562 0091 +163 +127 096048 048 037 000 00
214900 1956N 08631W 8430 01560 0094 +160 +127 097046 048 037 001 00
214930 1956N 08633W 8427 01564 0094 +160 +128 098044 046 036 004 00
215000 1956N 08635W 8419 01571 0108 +139 +128 093044 047 049 041 00
215030 1956N 08637W 8433 01554 0106 +133 +124 097047 049 049 038 00
215100 1956N 08639W 8426 01564 0101 +147 +119 091045 048 039 008 00
215130 1956N 08641W 8427 01564 0094 +158 +115 087045 046 027 004 00
215200 1956N 08643W 8422 01564 0094 +155 +112 091042 047 031 003 00
215230 1956N 08645W 8429 01557 0088 +165 +110 094040 041 032 002 00
$$
;

Had to go suddenly. Will catch up on missing obs.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 072113
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072017
A. 07/20:45:00Z
B. 18 deg 35 min N
085 deg 52 min W
C. 850 mb 1397 m
D. 50 kt
E. 222 deg 32 nm
F. 318 deg 31 kt
G. 222 deg 33 nm
H. 996 mb
I. 15 C / 1526 m
J. 19 C / 1521 m
K. 15 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 5 nm
P. AF304 0107A FRANKLIN OB 20
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 59 KT 043 / 20 NM 20:51:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 070 / 3 KT
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 072053
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 42 20170807
204300 1829N 08554W 8429 01491 0003 +175 +133 296016 016 031 001 03
204330 1830N 08553W 8429 01489 9998 +179 +137 287014 015 027 001 00
204400 1832N 08552W 8426 01482 9987 +185 +141 272010 012 026 000 03
204430 1834N 08552W 8434 01470 9979 +189 +145 253006 008 023 000 03
204500 1835N 08552W 8428 01471 9975 +185 +149 128003 007 021 000 00
204530 1837N 08551W 8431 01467 9976 +181 +153 109014 018 022 001 03
204600 1838N 08550W 8421 01479 9977 +180 +156 116023 025 030 001 00
204630 1839N 08549W 8430 01474 9982 +180 +158 120029 030 033 000 00
204700 1840N 08548W 8428 01479 9983 +183 +160 122031 031 033 001 00
204730 1842N 08547W 8428 01482 9986 +185 +161 124033 035 037 001 00
204800 1843N 08546W 8429 01485 9996 +174 +163 131039 044 049 007 00
204830 1844N 08545W 8424 01493 0018 +159 +159 132048 050 053 016 03
204900 1845N 08543W 8427 01497 0027 +154 //// 130052 055 050 009 05
204930 1846N 08542W 8428 01504 0028 +156 +151 130054 055 047 006 00
205000 1847N 08541W 8429 01508 0032 +160 +143 131054 054 046 001 00
205030 1848N 08540W 8429 01514 0041 +155 +138 133055 059 046 004 00
205100 1849N 08539W 8435 01510 0043 +160 +135 136058 059 046 002 00
205130 1850N 08537W 8422 01529 0049 +160 +133 136059 059 048 001 00
205200 1851N 08536W 8433 01521 0051 +162 +132 135052 058 048 001 00
205230 1852N 08535W 8426 01532 0054 +164 +132 137052 054 048 001 00
$$
;

Earlier pass had 59 kt FL, 56 kt SFMR.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 072203
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 49 20170807
215300 1956N 08648W 8432 01556 0088 +165 +110 091038 041 031 007 00
215330 1956N 08650W 8428 01558 0103 +138 +112 093040 042 039 021 00
215400 1956N 08652W 8424 01560 0103 +136 +111 090044 046 038 020 00
215430 1956N 08654W 8426 01559 0107 +134 +107 087043 047 043 018 00
215500 1956N 08656W 8433 01556 0099 +150 +103 086038 040 039 011 00
215530 1956N 08658W 8425 01563 0103 +142 +100 085041 043 036 013 00
215600 1956N 08700W 8430 01554 0107 +130 +097 088041 043 050 053 00
215630 1956N 08702W 8417 01566 0104 +134 +095 086036 039 052 059 00
215700 1956N 08704W 8410 01578 0106 +135 +093 074039 043 063 037 03
215730 1956N 08706W 8441 01547 0104 +142 +094 070037 038 049 013 03
215800 1956N 08708W 8428 01561 0102 +147 +095 077037 038 039 014 00
215830 1956N 08710W 8425 01560 0106 +136 +095 074040 043 046 021 00
215900 1956N 08713W 8422 01563 0102 +142 +095 061039 044 049 020 03
215930 1956N 08715W 8437 01553 0105 +145 +096 061041 043 041 007 03
220000 1956N 08717W 8425 01563 0097 +158 +099 065035 039 039 005 00
220030 1955N 08719W 8436 01557 0095 +164 +100 069035 036 037 003 03
220100 1954N 08720W 8424 01566 0100 +155 +103 065033 036 /// /// 03
220130 1953N 08719W 8438 01547 0104 +140 +106 066035 037 037 009 03
220200 1952N 08718W 8425 01559 0102 +141 +106 070038 039 036 012 00
220230 1951N 08717W 8430 01556 0092 +156 +105 077035 036 036 008 00
$$
;

63 kt SFMR - seems a tad high?

[CrazyC83]

I doubt they would issue a Special Advisory unless it supports a hurricane though. 55 kt seems best with the newest data.

[txwatcher91]

Let me further explain. My guess is recon will find 999 pressure at 18z or so. Probably deepening at 1 mb per hour until 8pm then goes into RI or about 2 mb per hour for the next 8 hours before landfall. So worse case you have: 999mb - 6mb - 16mb ~ 977 mb worst case...in a case like this could be strong Cat 1

And recon has 999mb as I thought

3 hours of passes 3mb drop in pressure...like clockwork

The question will be will it get on shore in time. I still think RI starts at 0z...so far my call from 12z has been 100% on

I’ve been on here for a long time and you usually do a great job nailing the RI phases and strengthening, kudos! It’s a good thing this doesn’t have 24 more hours over water.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 072213
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 50 20170807
220300 1950N 08715W 8425 01561 0086 +165 +104 074033 034 034 004 00
220330 1949N 08714W 8433 01553 0085 +165 +106 075032 033 033 002 00
220400 1948N 08713W 8426 01557 0085 +164 +109 075033 035 036 006 00
220430 1947N 08712W 8421 01562 0095 +142 +112 059032 036 043 021 00
220500 1945N 08711W 8433 01546 0097 +137 +112 065032 036 042 025 00
220530 1944N 08710W 8425 01556 0095 +142 +110 076031 032 043 009 00
220600 1943N 08709W 8432 01548 0098 +136 +108 072031 032 039 015 00
220630 1942N 08707W 8425 01556 0092 +147 +105 071030 031 039 014 00
220700 1941N 08706W 8432 01547 0090 +149 +103 065027 029 039 007 00
220730 1940N 08705W 8425 01552 0085 +156 +101 064028 028 038 005 00
220800 1939N 08704W 8432 01546 0080 +162 +100 063029 030 035 003 00
220830 1938N 08703W 8430 01546 0081 +161 +100 064030 030 036 003 00
220900 1937N 08702W 8427 01550 0082 +157 +102 081029 029 034 004 00
220930 1936N 08701W 8427 01549 0086 +148 +104 081032 033 034 006 00
221000 1935N 08659W 8431 01542 0091 +139 +105 085033 036 038 010 03
221030 1934N 08658W 8430 01543 0087 +145 +104 091032 034 037 009 00
221100 1933N 08657W 8423 01550 0087 +143 +103 085029 034 034 010 00
221130 1932N 08656W 8419 01556 0081 +153 +101 082030 032 034 007 00
221200 1931N 08655W 8430 01542 0074 +165 +102 090032 033 030 001 00
221230 1930N 08654W 8428 01544 0072 +167 +103 089035 036 029 001 00
$$
;

[Sanibel]

Landfall wind readings should be interesting...Not a very developed area...

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 072223
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 51 20170807
221300 1929N 08653W 8430 01540 0070 +167 +106 087037 039 029 001 00
221330 1928N 08652W 8425 01547 0071 +165 +111 084036 037 031 000 00
221400 1927N 08651W 8428 01543 0069 +165 +115 080034 035 031 001 00
221430 1925N 08650W 8429 01544 0065 +172 +119 080034 036 031 001 00
221500 1924N 08649W 8428 01541 0064 +171 +123 078037 038 031 000 00
221530 1923N 08647W 8428 01539 0065 +165 +127 074036 039 032 001 00
221600 1922N 08646W 8442 01528 0070 +158 +130 072036 037 032 001 00
221630 1921N 08645W 8429 01538 0065 +165 +130 075038 039 034 001 00
221700 1920N 08644W 8429 01537 0063 +164 +130 075040 041 032 001 00
221730 1919N 08643W 8433 01534 0062 +165 +131 076042 043 034 001 00
221800 1918N 08642W 8429 01534 0061 +162 +132 075043 044 033 001 00
221830 1917N 08641W 8430 01532 0058 +164 +134 077040 043 034 002 00
221900 1916N 08640W 8427 01533 0061 +156 +135 078040 042 035 002 00
221930 1915N 08639W 8431 01528 0058 +160 +134 076039 039 037 001 00
222000 1914N 08638W 8426 01532 0057 +161 +134 075044 045 038 000 00
222030 1913N 08637W 8427 01527 0050 +168 +133 076046 046 037 000 00
222100 1912N 08636W 8432 01524 0048 +167 +134 075047 049 037 002 00
222130 1911N 08634W 8431 01520 0048 +163 +135 077044 046 038 002 00
222200 1910N 08633W 8433 01518 0046 +163 +135 075045 047 040 002 00
222230 1909N 08632W 8426 01524 0045 +161 +136 074043 044 043 001 00
$$
;

[EquusStorm]

Give it too much more time over the Caribbean and it'd be halfway to being Dean 2.0. Amazing what 24 hours does under conditions like that.

Good thing it doesn't have much time, I'd rather not see Costa Maya and the nearby villages thrashed again. It's a really nice area. The fresh pineapples are phenomenal.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 072233
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 52 20170807
222300 1908N 08631W 8430 01517 0042 +163 +136 074043 043 042 001 00
222330 1907N 08630W 8433 01511 0038 +166 +137 073046 048 043 001 00
222400 1906N 08629W 8432 01509 0035 +165 +137 075045 048 042 001 00
222430 1905N 08628W 8430 01508 0032 +165 +137 072042 043 041 002 00
222500 1904N 08627W 8425 01511 0030 +162 +137 070045 046 042 001 00
222530 1903N 08626W 8429 01503 0031 +155 +135 068047 048 041 002 00
222600 1901N 08626W 8428 01501 0020 +166 +133 069047 048 043 000 00
222630 1900N 08625W 8429 01498 0016 +170 +132 071048 049 042 000 00
222700 1858N 08624W 8430 01492 0012 +168 +132 070047 048 042 002 00
222730 1857N 08623W 8425 01493 0008 +166 +132 068046 048 042 000 00
222800 1855N 08623W 8428 01486 0002 +169 +134 064043 045 044 001 00
222830 1854N 08622W 8429 01481 9994 +175 +135 060040 041 041 002 00
222900 1852N 08621W 8426 01480 9990 +172 +136 057038 041 043 001 00
222930 1851N 08620W 8429 01471 9981 +179 +136 056036 037 041 001 00
223000 1849N 08620W 8430 01466 9976 +178 +138 054032 036 039 001 00
223030 1848N 08619W 8429 01463 9969 +181 +140 049026 031 038 001 00
223100 1847N 08618W 8428 01459 9962 +185 +142 043020 024 032 001 03
223130 1845N 08616W 8425 01461 9959 +185 +143 035014 017 026 001 00
223200 1845N 08615W 8428 01453 9955 +182 +145 034009 012 024 001 00
223230 1844N 08614W 8428 01452 9953 +180 +146 343003 008 024 001 00
$$
;

Pressure continues to fall slowly, now 995mb.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 072244
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 53 20170807
223300 1843N 08612W 8429 01452 9957 +180 +147 222011 015 023 001 00
223330 1842N 08610W 8433 01456 9963 +182 +147 208020 022 023 000 03
223400 1843N 08609W 8429 01456 9959 +183 +148 184025 026 033 002 00
223430 1845N 08608W 8428 01458 9959 +188 +149 169028 029 034 001 03
223500 1846N 08608W 8429 01464 9965 +184 +150 154029 030 /// /// 03
223530 1847N 08609W 8428 01460 9962 +185 +152 137026 029 /// /// 03
223600 1846N 08610W 8433 01449 9952 +190 +153 134021 023 028 001 03
223630 1845N 08612W 8427 01452 9949 +188 +155 144016 020 026 000 03
223700 1844N 08613W 8424 01454 9956 +174 +157 156004 012 024 002 03
223730 1843N 08614W 8427 01454 9957 +178 +155 302005 006 024 000 00
223800 1842N 08616W 8430 01455 9960 +182 +152 301009 010 023 000 00
223830 1841N 08617W 8426 01463 9968 +179 +150 309012 013 023 002 03
223900 1841N 08619W 8429 01465 9974 +176 +148 315012 013 /// /// 03
223930 1843N 08619W 8427 01461 9973 +169 +147 329010 013 022 002 00
224000 1844N 08618W 8434 01451 9962 +181 +144 348007 009 023 001 00
224030 1845N 08617W 8428 01455 9955 +187 +142 048006 008 021 000 00
224100 1847N 08616W 8429 01451 9952 +190 +142 088013 016 024 001 00
224130 1848N 08615W 8429 01450 9952 +190 +144 099020 023 027 001 00
224200 1849N 08614W 8428 01453 9953 +190 +145 105025 026 029 001 00
224230 1851N 08613W 8428 01457 9956 +189 +147 110028 030 033 001 00
$$

Center is quite broad.

[tropicwatch]

Recon did some circles in the area of the center this time.

[cycloneye]

Interesting the circle around center.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 072254
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 54 20170807
224300 1852N 08612W 8429 01457 9961 +184 +149 114034 035 034 001 00
224330 1853N 08611W 8428 01464 9969 +180 +150 116038 039 039 001 00
224400 1855N 08610W 8430 01466 9975 +179 +150 115044 047 044 003 00
224430 1856N 08610W 8426 01477 9985 +171 +149 119047 047 043 004 00
224500 1857N 08609W 8434 01472 9991 +174 +146 121044 047 042 000 00
224530 1859N 08608W 8424 01487 9999 +167 +144 123045 046 041 000 00
224600 1900N 08607W 8428 01488 0007 +162 +141 123047 048 043 003 00
224630 1901N 08606W 8432 01488 0013 +161 +137 125050 051 052 005 00
224700 1903N 08605W 8420 01503 0025 +148 +132 124054 057 053 008 03
224730 1904N 08604W 8439 01488 0030 +149 +127 119060 061 052 009 03
224800 1905N 08603W 8421 01510 0030 +156 +121 121059 059 051 005 00
224830 1907N 08602W 8432 01506 0032 +161 +116 122058 059 047 001 00
224900 1908N 08601W 8430 01511 0039 +156 +114 124058 061 047 002 03
224930 1909N 08601W 8420 01524 0053 +139 +113 125058 062 050 008 03
225000 1911N 08600W 8439 01507 0051 +148 +111 127054 057 049 001 00
225030 1912N 08559W 8426 01521 0050 +156 +108 129058 059 048 002 00
225100 1914N 08558W 8429 01524 0046 +169 +106 131060 061 047 002 00
225130 1915N 08557W 8426 01530 0048 +172 +108 128060 061 046 001 00
225200 1916N 08556W 8430 01528 0055 +167 +112 127058 061 045 001 00
225230 1918N 08555W 8428 01535 0060 +165 +116 127055 057 044 001 00
$$
;

62 kt FL, 53 kt SFMR this pass.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 072304
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 55 20170807
225300 1919N 08554W 8430 01535 0061 +165 +119 128054 054 044 000 00
225330 1920N 08553W 8426 01540 0063 +166 +122 131055 055 043 000 00
225400 1922N 08552W 8430 01540 0067 +165 +124 128053 054 044 001 03
225430 1923N 08551W 8427 01543 0066 +166 +126 128051 052 043 000 00
225500 1925N 08550W 8430 01542 0067 +169 +127 128048 050 043 003 00
225530 1926N 08549W 8429 01543 0071 +165 +128 127049 049 042 001 00
225600 1927N 08549W 8424 01550 0074 +161 +128 129048 048 042 000 00
225630 1929N 08548W 8429 01546 0075 +161 +129 130047 049 041 000 00
225700 1930N 08547W 8426 01553 0079 +161 +128 125047 048 043 001 00
225730 1932N 08546W 8428 01551 0080 +160 +128 122046 048 042 000 00
225800 1933N 08545W 8427 01553 0081 +160 +127 126046 048 042 001 00
225830 1934N 08544W 8428 01554 0084 +157 +127 129049 051 045 001 00
225900 1936N 08543W 8438 01541 0091 +148 +125 128049 051 043 006 00
225930 1937N 08542W 8425 01558 0092 +150 +122 126055 057 045 006 00
230000 1938N 08541W 8429 01554 0092 +152 +117 124054 056 044 004 00
230030 1940N 08540W 8430 01552 0094 +151 +113 121050 054 044 005 00
230100 1941N 08539W 8429 01555 0093 +154 +110 122048 049 046 005 00
230130 1942N 08538W 8426 01561 0095 +153 +108 120045 047 044 006 00
230200 1944N 08538W 8431 01555 0094 +155 +106 119045 047 045 007 03
230230 1945N 08537W 8426 01562 0094 +155 +105 118046 047 042 007 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 072313
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 56 20170807
230300 1946N 08536W 8428 01558 0093 +159 +104 119048 048 042 005 00
230330 1948N 08535W 8425 01563 0095 +157 +103 121048 049 041 005 00
230400 1949N 08534W 8426 01561 0094 +160 +103 123046 048 042 004 00
230430 1950N 08533W 8431 01558 0095 +160 +103 121046 047 040 004 00
230500 1952N 08532W 8427 01561 0093 +163 +104 122046 047 040 004 00
230530 1953N 08531W 8429 01562 0096 +161 +104 123044 046 041 002 00
230600 1954N 08530W 8428 01565 0098 +160 +105 125041 042 041 003 00
230630 1956N 08529W 8429 01563 0098 +160 +106 126038 041 038 004 00
230700 1957N 08528W 8430 01563 0099 +159 +107 128041 041 038 004 00
230730 1959N 08527W 8429 01565 0099 +161 +108 128040 041 037 005 00
230800 2000N 08527W 8430 01565 0096 +166 +109 126039 039 036 004 00
230830 2001N 08526W 8429 01565 0097 +167 +110 126039 040 038 002 00
230900 2003N 08525W 8429 01566 0096 +167 +111 124038 039 038 002 00
230930 2004N 08524W 8427 01567 0098 +165 +112 126039 039 038 002 00
231000 2005N 08523W 8429 01567 0099 +168 +113 128040 041 037 002 00
231030 2007N 08522W 8429 01568 0097 +170 +114 130040 041 037 001 00
231100 2008N 08521W 8427 01570 0098 +168 +115 132040 040 036 001 00
231130 2010N 08520W 8428 01568 0099 +165 +116 134040 041 036 002 00
231200 2011N 08519W 8429 01572 0099 +173 +117 129039 040 034 003 03
231230 2013N 08520W 8432 01568 0100 +168 +119 130038 039 036 001 00
$$
;

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 072323
AF304 0107A FRANKLIN HDOB 57 20170807
231300 2015N 08521W 8430 01569 0100 +164 +121 131040 040 035 001 00
231330 2017N 08521W 8428 01575 0103 +164 +122 130039 040 033 000 00
231400 2018N 08522W 8427 01573 0102 +166 +123 127039 039 034 000 00
231430 2020N 08523W 8392 01608 0102 +162 +123 126039 039 034 000 03
231500 2022N 08524W 7921 02105 0096 +147 +122 135040 041 /// /// 03
231530 2024N 08524W 7535 02521 0082 +128 +120 133036 040 /// /// 03
231600 2025N 08525W 7164 02949 //// +102 //// 126037 039 /// /// 05
231630 2027N 08526W 6967 03180 //// +083 //// 127037 037 032 000 01
231700 2030N 08527W 6940 03212 //// +080 //// 126035 036 031 000 01
231730 2032N 08528W 6950 03196 //// +083 //// 129036 036 031 000 01
231800 2034N 08529W 6950 03196 //// +085 //// 123034 036 031 000 05
231830 2037N 08530W 6956 03193 //// +089 //// 116035 036 032 000 01
231900 2039N 08531W 6954 03197 //// +090 //// 112037 038 032 000 01
231930 2042N 08532W 6949 03199 //// +088 //// 112038 040 032 000 01
232000 2045N 08534W 6953 03196 //// +088 //// 111040 041 032 000 01
232030 2047N 08535W 6952 03198 //// +088 //// 112041 042 032 000 01
232100 2050N 08536W 6949 03202 //// +088 //// 112040 041 031 000 01
232130 2052N 08537W 6950 03200 //// +090 //// 109039 040 032 000 01
232200 2055N 08538W 6950 03198 //// +090 //// 111039 039 032 000 01
232230 2058N 08539W 6757 03446 //// +078 //// 107040 042 031 000 01
$$
;

Mission over.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT12 KNHC 072317
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL072017
A. 07/22:32:40Z
B. 18 deg 43 min N
086 deg 13 min W
C. 850 mb 1379 m
D. 44 kt
E. 322 deg 14 nm
F. 071 deg 49 kt
G. 325 deg 19 nm
H. 995 mb
I. 17 C / 1530 m
J. 19 C / 1522 m
K. 14 C / NA
L. OPEN N
M. C18
N. 1234 / 8
O. 0.02 / 6 nm
P. AF304 0107A FRANKLIN OB 27
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 62 KT 027 / 28 NM 22:49:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 135 / 3 KT
MAX FL TEMP 19 C 357 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR
;

[drezee]

I’ve been on here for a long time and you usually do a great job nailing the RI phases and strengthening, kudos! It’s a good thing this doesn’t have 24 more hours over water.

Thanks, but recon is gone...so we won't know for sure