ATL: GERT - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[PTrackerLA]

The 12z Euro EPS consensus of a storm recurving just off the EC days 6-8 is a little concerning as a shift to the west (or east) is highly probable at this range. Tonight's runs will be interesting to watch.

[gatorcane]

The models are almost always to far east in the beginning. Hurricane Matthew is a great example of the models slowly shifting west and finally locking onto the final outcome 2 days or so out.

Yeah remember Matthew last year and watching the ridge get stronger and stronger on each model run. Another one I can think of is Hurricane Ike in 2008. Around the place 99L is at now models wanted to recurve IKE before reaching Florida. We all know what happened. IKE ended up hitting Cuba! So anything is possible. Let's see if something forms first. Recurve is always the higher percentage odds by a good amount with anything approaching the US from the southeast but not always the final outcome.

[northjaxpro]

Well not only did Ike impacted Cuba, but the ridge strengthened to steer Ole right into the NW Gulf Coast area.

Ike in 2008 is a very good example of how the models can vastly underestimate the strength of the Bermuda Ridge.

[northjaxpro]

Well not only did Ike impacted Cuba, but the ridge strengthened to steer Ike right into the NW Gulf Coast area.

Ike in 2008 is a very good example of how the models can vastly underestimate the strength of the Bermuda Ridge.

[floridasun78]

If it means anything, we've had very hot temps in Broward (hovering below 90) with a light breeze from the south east.

Expecting some isolated showers by tomorrow thru Thursday from the sea breeze.

Long term (Wednesday night-Sunday)...model guidance continue to
depict a developing upper level trough moving across the state
late Thursday and into Friday, bringing increasing deep layer
moisture and more upper level support for enhanced convection,
especially during the late afternoon and evening hours. Some
storms may become severe, but widespread severe weather is not
anticipated at this time.

Once the upper trough move away from the area, the high pressure
over the Atlantic expands again into South Florida, with more
typical summer time weather through the weekend.
From Miami NWS

Talking about the high rebuilding next weekend.

their rip current avd now because strong high to east of fl here in miami

[weathaguyry]

Since a deep trough is expected to form, I don't really think this will get too far south, I think the OBX northward is in the most danger currently, because any shift west would put the storm in our area

[OuterBanker]

That will teach me to run errands. Just got back and noticed all the new postings here. I would pretty much take models this far out with a grain of salt. But it's the Euro, which I follow closely (the only model that got Joaquin right). Although all my repair and reconstruct has been finished we still haven't returned all the things in storage. We need a couple years off. At least the GFS isn't seeing anything. Think I'll change my allegiances.

[Kingarabian]

Euro keeps it fairly strung out for the next 24 hours. After that start watching for development.

[Kingarabian]

Looks like the next 48 hours will make or break the system. The runs from the Euro that showed 99L weak had 99L fight higher shear in the next 48 hours, while the runs that showed development showed the high shear lifting out and development followed.

You can see it walk a fine line in the graphic below.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Well according to the Miami NWS the Tutt is suppose to head through S.Fl Thurs-Fri. So maybe that shear is heading west in tandem with 99l. Not that I know what I'm talking about but sounds like that was what's going to happen:

.model guidance continue to
depict a developing upper level trough moving across the state
late Thursday and into Friday, bringing increasing deep layer
moisture and more upper level support for enhanced convection,
especially during the late afternoon and evening hours. Some
storms may become severe, but widespread severe weather is not
anticipated at this time.

Once the upper trough move away from the area, the high pressure
over the Atlantic expands again into South Florida, with more
typical Summer time weather through the weekend.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Can always nitpick at least one storm out of every 10 years that went further west than originally modeled. Usually it's the putrid gfs that has everything recurving well east. There has been a trough dropping down almost like clockwork every 7 days this summer. And another this weekend looks to be coming as well. Wouldn't believe the gfs no matter what it showed right now. Euro nailed Franklin and the due west track into Mexico. Also was much closer to being right with cindy than the gfs as well. Have no reason to believe it will be wrong about what ever 99l may become and turning out to sea due to another trough.

[Kingarabian]

Can always nitpick at least one storm out of every 10 years that went further west than originally modeled. Usually it's the putrid gfs that has everything recurving well east. There has been a trough dropping down almost like clockwork every 7 days this summer. And another this weekend looks to be coming as well. Wouldn't believe the gfs no matter what it showed right now. Euro nailed Franklin and the due west track into Mexico. Also was much closer to being right with cindy than the gfs as well. Have no reason to believe it will be wrong about what ever 99l may become and turning out to sea due to another trough.

The Euro is keeping 99L as a viable entity through 96 hours. It only starts to develop 99L east of Florida after 144 -168 hours. So far this season the global models have been poor this far out. We can either end up with a major hurricane over the Florida straits or an open wave sitting east of Florida.

Actually it seems like you can't even trust models 48 hours out.. Euro for 2 runs spun up a TS in the EPac and showed development within 24-48 hours and now it completely dropped it. SMH.

[Bocadude85]

Can always nitpick at least one storm out of every 10 years that went further west than originally modeled. Usually it's the putrid gfs that has everything recurving well east. There has been a trough dropping down almost like clockwork every 7 days this summer. And another this weekend looks to be coming as well. Wouldn't believe the gfs no matter what it showed right now. Euro nailed Franklin and the due west track into Mexico. Also was much closer to being right with cindy than the gfs as well. Have no reason to believe it will be wrong about what ever 99l may become and turning out to sea due to another trough.

For days the Euro showed Cindy going into Mexico and the GFS showed the Fla panhandle...if anything the two met in the middle. The GFS has been pretty bad this year but the Euro isn't far behind. I wouldn't believe a 120 hour forecast from either model. Until 99L consolidates and actually develops it's a crap shot as to what its future may be.

[SFLcane]

Pretty fishy problem here...really lost confidence in all these models including the ECMWF.

[RL3AO]

Pretty fishy problem here...really lost confidence in all these models including the ECMWF.

But are the models getting worse or are expectations for them getting too high? 20 years ago predicting a nor'easter 4 days out was considered a major scientific achievement, but now they predict them 7 days out and people complain if the forecast doesn't pick out the city block that's going to get the most snow.

[GeneratorPower]

Pretty fishy problem here...really lost confidence in all these models including the ECMWF.

But are the models getting worse or are expectations for them getting too high? 20 years ago predicting a nor'easter 4 days out was considered a major scientific achievement, but now we predict them 7 days out and people complain if we don't pick out the city block that's going to get the most snow.

I think it's more frustration that the Euro is always forecasting boring impacts from these tropical systems and it's always right. The GFS forecasts interesting scenarios and it's always wrong.

[Bocadude85]

The 18z GFS is still showing no development for 99L. The wave does move over S.Fla in the 160 hour time frame.

[floridasun78]

Well according to the Miami NWS the Tutt is suppose to head through S.Fl Thurs-Fri. So maybe that shear is heading west in tandem with 99l. Not that I know what I'm talking about but sounds like that was what's going to happen:

.model guidance continue to
depict a developing upper level trough moving across the state
late Thursday and into Friday, bringing increasing deep layer
moisture and more upper level support for enhanced convection,
especially during the late afternoon and evening hours. Some
storms may become severe, but widespread severe weather is not
anticipated at this time.

Once the upper trough move away from the area, the high pressure
over the Atlantic expands again into South Florida, with more
typical Summer time weather through the weekend.

their saying stormy weather with that upper low in miami end of week

[djones65]

Expectations are wayyyyyyy too high!!!
Models are merely tools and "guidance," not to be taken as gospel.

Also, the GFS gets a bad rep because it run every six hours o we get two times as many outputs than the ECM!
Remember the ECM originally was on board for significant development of 99L initially and then dropped it. Since it only ran twice a day there were many less outputs so that we don't remember them like we do with the GFS which may show four occurrences of a phantom storm due to it running four times a day whereas if the ECM has a phantom we only see two runs of it. Being bombarded with double the runs makes errors appear more prevalent with the GFS.

When it comes to genesis neither model is fantastic. And models are supposed to offer guidance and assistance in forecasting weather events. They are not by themselves supposed to be used AS a forecast.

[RL3AO]

Expectations are wayyyyyyy too high!!!
Models are merely tools and "guidance," not to be taken as gospel.

Also, the GFS gets a bad rep because it run every six hours o we get two times as many outputs than the ECM!
Remember the ECM originally was on board for significant development of 99L initially and then dropped it. Since it only ran twice a day there were many less outputs so that we don't remember them like we do with the GFS which may show four occurrences of a phantom storm due to it running four times a day whereas if the ECM has a phantom we only see two runs of it. Being bombarded with double the runs makes errors appear more prevalent with the GFS.

When it comes to genesis neither model is fantastic. And models are supposed to offer guidance and assistance in forecasting weather events. They are not by themselves supposed to be used AS a forecast.

And the Euro only runs out 10 days. How many more phantom storms would we see in days 11-16?